If it does remain decent ground I would give the German horse Fantastic Moon a chance - won really well in Baden-Baden from a decent yardstick. I'd gone off him as I thought we were looking at very soft ground, might have a snifter of him just before the off if the going is on the quicker side
Interesting mare with an interesting pedigree. The top line isn't that interesting as we know Siyouni pretty well and we know he can get horses that stay 12f but also gets plenty that don't. It's her bottom line that's interesting. First I'll go back to her 5th dam Appolonia who was a top class racefilly. I then notice she's by French champion racehorse (and sire) Djebel and as I surmise Appolonia was owned and bred by Marcel Boussac. She shows all the classic Boussac elements: her grandsire was Tourbillon and her damsire was by his champion Pharis, while great damsire was by Tourbillon (there's Asterus there as well). This is one of the great Boussac families and at some stage it found its way into the Rothschild stud.. Then you look at Mqse de Sevigne's dam and you notice he's by a sire you've never heard of. He's Sevres Rose, who never raced and was by the indifferent sire Caerleon but was out of the very useful filly Indian Rose, who was a Vermeille winner. Then you look back at her pedigree and you find her 3rd dam was by Djebel and you are back in Boussac country again with Tourbillon and Asterus blood there.. Some the bottom line is jam-packed with Boussac blood. Though the Boussac lines were in the shadows for much of the 80s and 90s it's not the case today. Most people are seeming to ask 'will she get 12f?', all I can say is I don't see why not (her half-brother certainly did). As regards her pedigree she has the class. Will she win? We'll see.
Very interesting post on breeding of subject mare, BUT, and it's a big BUT, again it is important to stress that she has probably the worst draw of all in Stall-16 in the 16-runner Arc. It would be amazing if she wins from such a position at the start? Never know with horseracing though!
I just noticed Fantastic Moon was bred by the Stauffenberg family - could it be a plot? I'll get my coat .........................
Okay, here is the final Arc field of sixteen in draw order: 1 Zarakem – Cristian Demuro, Jérôme Reynier 2 Fantastic Moon – Rene Piechulek, Mme Sarah Steinberg 3 Bluestocking – Rossa Ryan, Ralph Beckett 4 Aventure – Stephane Pasquier, Christophe Ferland 5 Sosie – Maxime Guyon, Andre Fabre 6 Survie – Tom Marquand, Nicolas Clement 7 Delius – Ioritz Mendizabal, Jean-Claude Rouget 8 Look De Vega – Ronan Thomas, Carlos & Yann Lerner 9 Al Riffa – Yutaka Take, Joseph O’Brien 10 Los Angeles – Ryan Moore, Aidan O’Brien 11 Shin Emperor – Ryusei Sakai, Yoshito Yahagi 12 Sevenna’s Knight – Mickael Barzalona, Andre Fabre 13 Haya Zark – William Buick, Adrien Fouassier 14 Continuous – Christophe Soumillon, Aidan O’Brien 15 Sunway – Oisin Murphy, David Menuisier 16 Mqse De Sevigne – Alexis Pouchin, Andre Fabre The two defectors were from Ballydoyle. So most of the ‘big guns’ got favourable draws. It seems likely that Sosie will go off favourite both with the British layers and on the local PMU.
I can see 10 that have a good chance, which is why I won't be going this year. I would be happy with my 25/1 ew Los Angeles, especially as Ryan Moore rides; but not at current odds. I shall be watching on TV and hopefully see a good winner. But, I don't think there is an outstanding horse in the race this year which is a shame
Take the going report of “souple” (soft) with a pinch of salt. It will not even be “good to soft” in British terms. According to the Racing Post the ground has been drying out this week under sunny weather and France Galop have not been watering because they had too much rain in September (40mm). TurfTrax make the going ‘good’ or ‘good to soft’ on different parts of the course. They are racing on a new strip of turf that has been saved for this meeting by moving the rails out, so horses that must have it very soft are to be avoided. I would love to see Bluestocking win it but she has never beaten the boys; and I had a small ante post win bet before Arc trials day on something else because I expected Bluestocking to be going to Ascot. It is very open this year. I was reading an article on Sporting Life about how compressed the Timeform ratings are on this year’s race – Al Riffa is top-rated – but that top rating is well below the average rating of recent winners.
The Wertheimer owners and their contracted jockey, Maxime Guyon, will seldom have a better chance than Sosie in this year's Arc. No shift from me, of course. Will probably have a go on a rev. forecast, which I will post on Sunday's DRT.
Timeform Analyst's Verdict A very open Arc. SOSIE saw off a couple of today's rivals in the Prix Niel last month and can make it a perfect 4-4 at Longchamp and provide Andre Fabre with a record-extending ninth success in the race. Fellow 3-y-o Los Angeles ran a cracker over a trip too short in the Irish Champion and is feared most back at 1½m. Vermeille-winner Bluestocking is rock solid and is third on the list ahead of Al Riffa. However, some interesting notes extracted from other runners MQSE DE SEVIGNE ..............confidently ridden and always holding on) in August: effective at 1m, bred to stay 1½m: acts on soft going: often travels strongly. LOOK DE VEGA ................... better for run when 3½ lengths third of 5 to Sosie in Prix Niel at Longchamp last time, making most and finishing under hands-and-heels riding: should prove fully effective at 1½m: still unexposed. SHIN EMPEROR .......... placed in the Japanese Derby when last seen in May, ran really well on his first start in Europe, finishing one place better than his full-brother, Sottsass, had in this race in 2022, no surprise on this evidence were he to go on and emulate that one by going on to win the Arc, the step back up to 1½m sure to suit; mid-division, took strong hold, going well when not clear run over 1f out, forced to switch, finished well.
It looks like Los Angeles is going to go off favourite with the British layers as it is now 4/1 ahead of Sosie at 9/2. I still think Sosie will go off favourite on the PMU as the French never back foreign runners. Shin Emperor will likely be shorter on the PMU if a lot of Japanese show up and shovel Euros on him. Zarakem – his career best was second to Auguste Rodin at Royal Ascot but ran poorly at York. Haya Zark – won the Prix Ganay but probably wanted the ground much softer than he will find here. Fantastic Moon – ought to belie his odds as he has very good form in Germany so not to be discounted. Al Riffa – excellent second in the Eclipse to arguably the top three year old and has every chance here. Sevenna’s Knight – all his best form over further than this on slower ground so may be run off his hooves. Continuous – fifth last year after winning the St Leger but flopped in the Prix Foy so hard to fancy. Bluestocking – won the Prix Vermeille and has to have a good chance today. Mqse De Sevigne – unbeaten this year but first attempt at the trip and a really bad draw against her. Look De Vega – excuses made for his defeat in the Prix Niel but can he reverse form with the other two? Shin Emperor – could have gone very close to winning the Irish Champion with a better ride; obvious claims. Sunway – has become a bit of a nearly horse chasing home Los Angeles in the Irish Derby so place prospects only. Delius – has finished behind Sosie the last twice and cannot come from too far back today. Sosie – won his last two over course and distance, trying to emulate the last Prix Niel winner following up in 2006. Los Angeles – won the Irish Derby but behind the Japanese runner in the Irish Champion; should go well. Survie – well beaten in the Prix Vermeille after more than two months off but hard to see her winning. Aventure – runner-up in the Prix Vermeille and has to have a good chance today.
I've some small stakes tickets on Delius at 40/1 AP, but have backed Shin Emperor. I don't understand the worries about the ground, his full brother Scotsass won the Arc and all its form was Soft, Very soft, unraceable.
