Well it is a very open Arc. He is a course winner, by 20l on very soft, but it was a mile further, and he recently won over 14f on good so he is versatile to say the least. Must admit I keep looking at him and if it came up very soft he will be thereabouts I'm sure
Looking fo something to finish in the first 6 at decent odds on the day Iresine's latest run at Lonchamp was just sightly faster than Sosie a couple of hours later. Just a nk behind Iresine was another gelding, Zarir. In June this year Zarir finished ½l behind Al Hakeem. Interestingly AlHakeem has only twice run beyond 10f. One was over 10.5 f when btn 6½l by Vadeni in a very fast time given the conditions and was nearest at finish. The other time was in the Arc when btn 2¾L by Alpinista on very soft ground (and only 2l and a nk behind Vadeni who was 2nd. Since then Al Hakeem has had only 3 runs. One in April 23 a G2 over 10f and two this year over 10f. The first, after a 427 day break where he came 2nd to Calif in a G3 (with Zarir 3rd - see earlier) and that was followed with a win in a G3 last month Seems as though it could be a gentle build up for the Arc, along the same lines as his 2022 attempt. Could be worth a dabble ew on the day at decent odds and 6 or more places. Currently 40/1
It was announced earlier in the week, Ron, that Al Hakeem had been retired. Will commence stallion duties, in France in 2025.
My problem with both of the male gender trials at Longchamp was that both of them were not true tests. They both ended up typical French races run at a married man’s gallop and then a sprint in the straight. We know that the Arc is almost certain not to be run in that fashion with half the field emanating from Britain and Ireland. The betting is wide open with the British bookies because there is no clear form candidate that is definitely going to show up. From a form perspective, I think the Japanese have probably sent the best chance they have of winning in Shin Emperor with the going being the only concern as he has never run on easy ground. Had they put up a British/Irish jockey in the Irish Champion Stakes I think he would have gone close to winning it or at least forcing Economics to pull out a bit more. He has run over the distance (third in the Japanese Derby) and his full brother won the Arc. If thousands of Japanese show up (as they have done previously) and there is a betting feed from Japan (has been previously) it is quite likely that the Japanese runner will go off favourite on the PMU. Which of the French horses the locals pile on is anyone’s guess at this stage. My thinking is that the Fabre runner is the more likely as the Rouget runner is Coolmore. I would love to see Bluestocking win, but I cannot back her against the boys; however, the three year old Wertheimer filly Aventure that she beat has quite possibly been trained for the Arc and her pacemaker from the Vermeille, Halfday, holds an entry but probably needs help to get in the field as she is rated well below what is probably required with the field limit.
Less than a fortnight until the big race and this is the state of play with everyone that is 50/1 or shorter: 4/1 Sosie – won unsatisfactory Niel after collecting Grand Prix de Paris; has chances. 13/2 Look de Vega – very poor in Niel; supporters have to pray he repeats Prix du Jockey Club effort to get involved. 7/1 Shin Emperor – arguably would have gone close in Irish Champion under European jockey; live chance. 8/1 Los Angeles – has to defy historically bad record of St Leger runners coming here. 10/1 Delius – hard to see why he should reverse running with Sosie last twice. 12/1 Al Riffa – second in Eclipse and won Grosser Preis von Berlin on first attempt at trip; has chance. 12/1 Bluestocking – won the Vermeille but poor record against boys; needs to be added and plans might change on race week. 16/1 Aventure – second in Vermeille and clearly been trained for this race; live chance. 20/1 Ombudsman – no word whether he will be routed here but lacks big race experience. 25/1 Content – won Yorkshire Oaks reversing Curragh form with Irish Oaks winner; has chance. 25/1 Maniatic – form does not look good enough (Listed win last time); is he a possible pacemaker for Aventure? (same owners) 33/1 Economics – a mug’s bet as he won’t be there. 33/1 Msqe de Sevigne – if she runs on Arc weekend, I think the Forêt or Opéra is more likely. 40/1 Sparkling Plenty – she was beaten fair and square in the Vermeille so supporters only have one piece of form from the Diane. 40/1 City Of Troy – a mug’s bet as he won’t be there. 40/1 Fantastic Moon – won Grosser Preis von Baden beating Dubai Honour but that does not look good enough. 40/1 Continuous – cannot give last year’s fifth any chance on this year’s form. 50/1 Ancient Wisdom – no word on his possible participation; known form not good enough. 50/1 Emily Upjohn – a huge disappointment this term so I think she won’t line up. 50/1 Kyprios – a mug’s bet as he won’t be there. 50/1 Zarir – mugs that backed this one recently are due a refund as he is ineligible as a gelding. 50/1 Opera Singer – gave the impression she did not stay in the Vermeille so might run in the Opéra. 50/1 Rubies Are Red – behind others here on several starts this year so not good enough. 50/1 Tiffany – Listed winner beaten in Group 2 on first attempt at trip last time; not good enough.
On paper Al Riffa has 2 cracking pieces of form which, had they been over 12f and not 10 would have been good enough to make her fav; beaten 1l by City of Troy beaten ¾l by Ace Impact but COT's race was only slightly quicker than a 79-rated handicapper after weights carried have been factored in and Ace Impact won "cosily' in a tactical affair However, her best form seems to be her latest run when she encountered 12f for the first time and won by 5l. So has obvious place claims Aventure (I think) has a fair chance of reversing form with Blue Stocking should they meet again My 3 against the field are: 1. Los Angeles 2. Aventure 3. Al Riffa
I should have checked the result not gone with my obviously diminishing memory: Los Angeles won the Great Voltigeur (the key St Leger trial) but then ran in the Irish Champion Stakes, where he finished behind the Japanese horse (that had not run for three months) in a blanket finish. It was the Great Voltigeur runner-up Illinois that went to Town Moor. Having won the Irish Derby after finishing third at Epsom, the trip will be no problem for Los Angeles. What would bother me is that he may not have improved much as he beat Illinois nearly a length in the Criterium de Saint Cloud last year (when Moore was on Illinois) but only by a neck in the Great Voltigeur, where they had a pacemaker.
That may be the case but I drew up the list by simply noting down all those in the betting at 50/1 or shorter on Oddschecker, leaving out Ramatuelle that only seems to be quoted on the exchanges. There are horses quoted at 66/1 or more that might still be intended runners such as Ambiente Friendly, Arabian Crown, Henry Longfellow and Sunway. Unless a few are supplemented there may not be a maximum field this time. There is an ineligible horse and three that are extremely unlikely to show up in that betting list so the other 20 would all have to take part. As I noted, Maniatic is a possible pacemaker for Aventure because the normal pacemaker is not rated high enough to get in the field unless fewer than 20 others declare.
If you take a line through Illinois? Sosie has this race in the bag but 4/1 is rather short now. Swanee had him at much bigger odds (can't remember what they were then). Same with me, I couldn't back Los Angeles at 8s but I first picked him out ew when he was 25/1
Okay, at the latest forfeit stage, the Arc field has been reduced to just 18. If your horse is not on this list then your bet is down. There are a number of very interesting entries, with four for Ballydoyle (not all expected) and three for Andre Fabre. Looking at the current running order on France Galop, the off time will be 4:20 local time (3:20 British time) race number five. Zarakem – 4yo colt, Jérôme Reynier Haya Zark – 5yo horse, Adrien Fouassier Fantastic Moon – 4yo colt, Mme Sarah Steinberg Al Riffa – 4yo colt, Joseph O’Brien Sevenna’s Knight – 4yo colt, Andre Fabre Continuous – 4yo colt, Aidan O’Brien Auguste Rodin – 4yo colt, Aidan O’Brien Luxembourg – 5yo horse, Aidan O’Brien Bluestocking – 4yo filly, Ralph Beckett Mqse De Sevigne – 5yo mare, Andre Fabre Look De Vega – 3yo colt, Carlos & Yann Lerner Shin Emperor – 3yo colt, Yoshito Yahagi Sunway – 3yo colt, David Menuisier Delius – 3yo colt, Jean Claude Rouget Sosie – 3yo colt, Andre Fabre Los Angeles – 3yo colt, Aidan O’Brien Survie – 3yo filly, Nicolas Clement Aventure – 3yo filly, Christophe Ferland
If you are looking for a filly or a mare that you fancied then the place to look might be the following Prix de l’Opéra: American Sonja – 4yo filly, Joseph O’Brien Running Lion – 4yo filly, John & Thady Gosden Elusive Princess – 4yo filly, Joseph Dubois Royal Dress – 4yo filly, James Tate Excellent Truth – 4yo filly, Mauricio Delcher Sanchez Hanalia – 3yo filly, Johnny Murtagh Sparkling Plenty – 3yo filly, Patrice Cottier Almara – 3yo filly, Carlos & Yann Lerner Survie – 3yo filly, Nicolas Clement Ylang Ylang – 3yo filly, Aidan O’Brien Darnation – 3yo filly, Karl Burke Start Of Day – 3yo filly, Henri-Francois Devin See The Fire – 3yo filly, Andrew Balding Friendly Soul – 3yo filly, John & Thady Gosden Fallen Angel – 3yo filly, Karl Burke Lope De Lilas – 3yo filly, Willie Mullins Content – 3yo filly, Aidan O’Brien Wingspan – 3yo filly, Aidan O’Brien
Looking at the other entries for the Arc day card, I do not think that those bookmaker chappies are going to be very generous. In the Prix Marcel Boussac there are thirteen left, four from Ballydoyle including Bedtime Story, but I see Zarigana going off pretty short for the Aga Khan after the way she won last time. The twelve left in the Prix Jean-Luc Lagardère look competitive with Ballydoyle having two artists entered (Henri Matisse and Camille Pissarro) in a strong raiding party. The Prix de l’Abbaye is currently slated as the third race and it is one that usually falls to the raiding party, which most notably features Bradsell. The last two winners of the Prix de la Forêt are entered again (Kinross and Kelina) but they might have to give way to Moulin winner Tribalist, three from four this term.
You can tell the Arc is still the one they all want to win as once again a healthy 18 runners (barring mishaps) will go to post. Apart from 3 relatively small fields in 2019 (12 runners), 2020 (11) and 2021 (14) the Arc field has regularly pushed the 20 runner mark over the last 12 years. Compare that to just 3 double-figure fields for the King George & Queen Elizabeth Diamond Stakes in the same period. I guess the fact the Arc has nearly 4 times the prize money speaks volumes. The one I've picked out for an e/w dabble this year is Mqse De Sevigne. The 5YO mare is probably best known in the UK for finishing a well-beaten 2nd to Inspiral in the Sun Chariot Stakes last backend - albeit on good-firm. Since then she has recorded 4 successive victories on softer going over 8,9 (twice) and 10 furlongs with the last 3 being the Group 1 Prixs d'Ispahan, Rothschild and Jean Romanet. The fact that Fabre steps her up to 12 furlongs for the first time in an Arc really makes you sit up and take notice. She isn't spectacular but keeps on winning Group 1s and her style of racing suggests the extra 2 furlongs might really suit her.
Think the just-published draw has put paid to your pick unfortunately, Oddy. Mqse De Sevigne will race from widest of all in stall 16 and Sevenna’s Knight will be in 12. Am quite happy with Sosie's draw in Stall-5. That's OK. Delius still a big danger IMHO. Very well-drawn in Stall-7.
Have checked weather forecasts for Parislongchamp It will be 'dry/sunny' spells leading up to Sunday. Light rain on Arc day, and going is expected to be good-to-soft. That is good news for many of the fancied runners. Seems we're not going to get bog-like conditions, thank goodness!
