Be lucky VIP SATURDAY Good morning all. Please follow stalking advice and bet the points advised. We had a poor day yesterday - we have been doing well on Saturdays recently but there's no guarantees and it’s always a tough day to land winners. Hopefully we can make a profit today and then we can go again for the evening meets. There's probably going to be one or two more tips posted before 12pm at RIPON today. I just want to do a bit more research on those races before posting. 1.50 NEWBURY - AL QAREEM 5/2 - 1 point win It looks like a straight shootout between the top two in the market so a forecast with AL EASY could pay dividends here. Although we backed AL EASY two weeks ago and he won nicely for us he didn’t face a rival with the ability of AL QAREEM who is dropping in class today after running in the G1 Goodwood cup. He was nowhere near the winner but this is a considerable drop in class and I think AL EASY needs to improve again to win this race. Way to short at 8/11 so the sensible choice is AL QAREEM at 5/2. We already best AL EASY at Ascot last year by nearly 20 lengths so I think the market might have this one wrong… 2.05 NEWMARKET - STRIKE - 5-1 - 0.5 EW STRIKE is the form horse without a doubt as he seeks a hat trick up in class. With the fav FIRST FOLIO dropping in class - he’s got some work to do off a career high mark. He’s ran so well and consistently lately - I still think STRIKE might have more under the bonnet. He won this race 2 years ago and arrives to try again 8lbs higher… you can take EW here at 5-1 to cover the bet if you choose. 3.00 NEWBURY - STREETS OF GOLD - 11-1 - 0.5 EW Not won now for over two years. Started life racing with 5 wins in a row - got chinned by the handicap and has been running of a silly high mark ever since. This horse is not the group winner it looked to be during it’s two year old campaign but he should now be able to get back to winning ways with his mark hovering around 100… We will most likely have to settle for a place today but do not be put of by form and the long losing run. We will be on this horse until it wins now and it will win soon mark my words… (today would be nice) 4.05 NEWBURY - AFTERMATH - 10/3 - 0.5 win Smaller bet here as it’s a maiden stakes race and our horse is unraced. However - this is a JUSTFY colt and AOB has seemingly picked up a few rockets from the American champion… He already has G1 entries ahead of him so I’m expecting to see a good run at least on debut. There are some absolute weapons in this race that we will be hearing about for the next few years. Group horses and winners WILL 100% come from this race so it’s worth having a small bet for interest here and probably tracking anything that runs well and shows potential here. Theres about 5 million Guineas worth of debutants running in this - INTO COMBAT and COSMIC year both have very hefty price tags to justify so speak - one out of Dubwai and the other Kingman… this looks a brilliant little maiden race and one not to be missed! 5.15 NEWBURY - HOUSTONN - 7-1 - 0.5 EW We landed in HOUSTON last month at a short price before backing again last week at Ascot in what I think was a tougher race than this. HOUSTONN was clear and really should of seen the race out but was collared near the line to finish 3rd. Similar tactics will be applied today - I expect that Joe Leavy will try and get to the front in the final few furlongs - need to hold on this time. Should be a shorter price than this for today's race and will likely go off shorter. We are up 2lbs in the handicap but thats negated by the 5lb claim of our rider - we are actually on better terms that last Saturdays race… hard to see this one not going close. 5.50 MARKET RASEN - TUPELO MISSISSIPPI - 4-1 - 1 point win This will not be an easy race for TUPELO to win and the market prices are reflective of that. The top 4 in the market can hardly be split but we are actually 3rd fav here with both Williams and Skeltons horses currently shorter prices. We backed this horse when it ran at Cartmel - it won at 10-1.
VIP Sunday 4.15 PONTE - THE COOKSON CAFU - 11-2 - 1 point EW. Drops in class after a solid York effort. He’s back where he won at course and distance of the same mark of 73. Hard to see him not being involved at the finish today. 4.45 PONTE - A DAAY IN DEVON 11/8 - 1 point win Very consistent and obviously more than capable to win at this level. We have collected a few times already this year from this one. Another good opportunity today to win. De Sousa is riding well, he’s built a good relationship with this horse and to win today we will need a fast start from the stalls. This horse goes best from the front when unchallenged. 5.15 PONTE - GODSEND 7/4 - 1 point win GODSEND did absolutely everything wrong in his last race and still won it in the end. It showed a gritty attitude and refusal to give in. He was bashed at the start of the race, hung in the finish and drifted across the track. Sir Mark has re applied the cheek pieces today so hopefully those quirks will be ironed out and he can continue with progression and complete the four timer under the inform Luke Morris. Total points suggested 3.
YORK FESTIVAL DAY ONE 1 point DOUBLE - LOS ANGELES and CITY OF TROY. (Will try do a double each day like this) 1.50 YORK - DEMOCRACY DILEMMA 10/1 and SHAGRAAN 15/2 - 0.5 EW wins. So we're getting started at York with a 22 runner race. A class two, which is the Symphony Group handicap, heritage handicap. I'm going to be using Odds Checker to try and find the most places and the best odds for each of these horses. So you're going to need to shop around a little bit based upon the bookies that you use. And I would advise using Odds Checker yourself on the morning and looking for the most places and the prices and taking advantage of any offers that are on in order to get extra value. That's going to be the difference between profit and loss this week. Now, the last thing that we want is people to miss out on big price places because they haven’t taken the time to take the places. There's a lot of familiar names in this race, horses that we've backed in the past and horses that we'll likely back again in the future. Just give a name to a few of them. Jordan's Electrics, Kylian, Pocklington, Democracy Dilemma, the list goes on. This is a stacked race with a lot of horses that we know quite a lot about. There's one team that has been head and shoulders above the rest in terms of results when it comes to York, and that is the Appleby and Tom Marquand combination. Now, they will mount SHAGRAAN here, and that horse is one that I do not think has yet finished improving. He's been successful at five furlongs and six furlongs on good to firm ground, so we know that he's likely to get the ground needed tomorrow and he comes here and arrives on the back of a brilliant run where we collected off him when he beat Got To Love A Grey by about half a length at Goodwood. Now if we can get the ground for Shagran it's hard to see him not going very close here in the form he’s shown this season. SHAGRAAN is out of a dam called ANNIE FIOR. This is a mare that was raised on Farm by a trainer that we know very well in Ireland. He has sent over a few horses to me in the past and he sent me SHAAGRAN before it's first run. We have to follow up with a bet on him after his exploits at Goodwood. One that won't mind the ground whether it's soft, good, heavy is DEMOCRACY DILEMMA. We have backed DEMOCRACY DILEMA a few times this season already and he owes us a win at this point. We've had two seconds and a third from him and he's run really well every time we've backed him with Rossa Ryan on board. I think at this point, it's got a little bit to prove at this level, in fairness but I reckon it's going to go close. I'm happy to take 10 to 1 with seven places paid here. You can get 12 to 1 with the likes of Paddy Power and William Hill. But at the end of the day, we want the extra places this week where available. 2.25 YORK - THE WACO KID 33/1 and RAJEKO 25/1 - 0.5 EW The second race of the day is the first group race of the week, and it's the Group 3 sponsored by Tattersall’s. There's £165,000 up for grabs here, and the Appleby team will be going after it, along with Aidan O'Brien, and they're mounting the two shorties.. RULING COURT won very impressively on debut at Sandown. It’s a JUSTIFY colt over from the USA - they paid 2.3 million for him. It's probably going to win let's be honest but it's probably also going to go off evens so the thought process here is that although we're pretty certain that RULING COURT and THE LION IN WINTER will make up the forecast but if we can land third place at the tipped prices - it will pay more a lot more than the Evens favourite will. So if we can get a place in 25-1 or 33-1, for example, with THE WACO KID., we're going to get paid significantly more than back in the Evens favourite. We also have the chance that we could win the race and we land a big payout, Let's be honest - these are two absolute beasts at the top of the market. But I think it's worth giving it a go to try and take them on and that’s where my bets will be. I think THE WACO KID is a massive price here as he’s actually dropping in class after a brill run in a Group 2 at Goodwood. He was 5th in a bunched finish but had an awful start. This horse is well touted by Hugo Palmer and Micheal Owen thinks the sun shines out it’s backside… The fact of the matter is that the G2 form is the best piece of form on offer in the line up - RULING COURT has only won a class 4 so far. THE LION IN WINTERS win at the Curragh is better form than that but it’s the manner in which RULING COURT won that’s got everyone excited… He will still need to get out well to win over 7 furlongs. If anything goes wrong these favs are vulnerable. Bare in mind these are 2 year old horses so anything can happen with them on the day… The second one I like at a big price is RAJEKO at 25/1. I rarely comment or slag a jockey but I made a few posts about JAMES DOYLE after his ride the other night on NO RETREAT… he really should of been banned. I felt it was particularly unfair as only the other ALEC VOLCHANSKIY was banned for 28 days doing a similar thing. The difference is one is pro and the other amateur. Something tells me JAMES DOYLE might have a good week here at YORK as he will be riding with a point to prove. I’m certain he will be riding all his horses out to the line so RAJEKO comes into place here at a big price. He has also been tried in a G2 at Newmarket -4th in race that WHISTLEJACKET won. WHISTLE has gone on to win a G1 and out selection although 4th came in a few lengths behind at Newmarket in July so it’s a strong piece of form and a massive price. This horse is out of KAMEKO who is a winner over a mile at G1 level so the move up to 7 furlongs is a big positive in this case in my opinion. He should only improve for the long trip based on breeding. 3.00 YORK - LOS ANGELES 13/8 - ( DEIRA MILE - saver 8/1 if trying an EW) - 1 point win Everyman and his dog and all the publications are tipping KINGS GAMBIT here but I don’t see any sense whatsoever in taking on the proven IRISH DERBY winner in LOS ANGELES who is dropping in class for this race. This is a warm up for LOS ANGELES who is favourite in the LEGER G1 classic - it makes little sense. KINGS GAMBIT is entitled and Lilly to improve. Arguably been unlucky in his previous races but for me I think this race is between LA and ILLINOIS… I think they will finish top two here and I just hope that ILLINOIS does’t pop up and beat us. It’s a good alternative to the fav but I’m not sure anything beats LOS ANGELES at his best here. He must be here to win, not to warm up for the Leger… There’s only two places paid so hardly worth making a case for an EW play - however if you are trying one, Owen Burrows has DEIRA MILE here at 8/1 who ran very creditably in the Epsom Derby when 4th in behind LOS ANGELES. He’s not been seen since and has to be the value pick in the race - a lot more likely to improve than go backwards. 3.35 YORK - AMBIENT FRIENDLY 15/2 and BLUESTOCKING 10/1 0.5 EW If CITY OF TROY runs to the best of his ability, I think the only horse really that can potentially keep up with him is AMBIENT FRIENDLY. The question is can anything beat CITY OF TROY? In the Derby, Ambient Friendly got quite close. I thought we were going to win with Ambient Friendly, to be honest, but the class of City of Troy came through. Now, this is probably the best race of the year on the flat. Might even be more competitive than the Arc. And that's a big shout. It’s a brilliant race. We've got Raiders over from France, Japan, Ireland. the line-up is just absolutely smashing for this Group 1. It's the best of the best. So for City of Troy to win this, he's going to have to do everything right. And he's very short in price considering how good all of the other horses are here. If he slips up at all, something could pick up the pieces. Now, I could easily tip City of Troy for everybody and I don't actually think his price is too bad considering. I think it's actually quite good value. However, I think my job is to try and find a bit of extra value for everybody. And you can all bet City of Troy if you want to. Don't let me put you off a bet if thats what you fancy. He is the horse to beat. He's the absolute machine in the race. We're still going to try and take him on to see if we can get a bit of value on the each way prices. So with that said, the one I really still like is AMBIENTE FRIENDLY. I still don't think we've seen the best of this horse. I still think it's got a bit of improvement. Most of them do. They're still all young horses in this race. But AMBIENT FRIENDLY is one I particularly think is very good. BLUESTOCKING has already beaten some very good horses this year, Emily Upjohn, Freewind, it put away by six lengths. Now it was second in its last race in that group one recently at Goodwood and it came in behind Goliath who's obviously a bit of a freak of nature. The improvement on Goliath was massive. I tipped Goliath up at Ascot at 40/1 but I didn't think it would improve enough to be able to win a group one and in the manner that it did it was absolutely unbelievable so that horse is a bit of a freak of nature and BLUESTOCKING stayed on very impressively to take the runners up spot over the likes of AUGUSTE RODIN and other genuine types. The one downside to BLUESTOCKING is the penalty it carries for his recent win so he will run of 9 stone 5lbs where the 3 year olds will go from 9 stone 1. The 4 year olds have a weight disadvantage and must carry 9 stone 8 in this race making it even more difficult for them to beat the 3 year olds CITY OF TROY and AMBEINTE FRIENDLY… CALANDAGAN is tried at G1 for the first time - this French raider is definitely the most unexposed in the race in my opinion but he still needs to find nearly 15lbs in the ratings to best CITY OF TROY which is a massive ask. Our selections are both rated at 117 which is still a good 8lbs behind CITY OF TROY which shows the mammoth task at hand. There’s only 4 places on offer here so I’m not sure if it’s really worth trying the massive prices in the race. If I was pushed for one it would be MALJOOM at 25/1. The Japanese horse DUREZZA is 28/1 and obviously a good horse, but he’s not the best horse Japan has to offer. I think it will be a bit embarrassing if Japans second string can best our top horses but he’s not here to make up the numbers. Last comment WHAT A RACE THIS IS!!! 4.10 YORK - SAMUI 5-1 & EXTENSIO 13/2 - 0.5 EW Firstly if you have PADDY POWER or LADBROKES (basically any bookie but SKY and 365 - you can get 40/1 on BRINGSBACKMEMORIES. This horse is up in class but only takes a 1lb rise in the handicap after a solid win at Hamilton. At 40/1 he’s obviously overpriced when the other bookies are in at 28/1 - worth a small go at 40/1 with David Egan on - but you will only get 5 place at best… For this one we have six places with Sky and five elsewhere. Probably worth going with Sky and taking the six places because SAMUI is five to one or six to one depending on where you go. So it's probably worth taking the extra place and taking the five to one here. As I said I was going to try and avoid the favourites but I think a lot of these horses in this one are very exposed. We know quite a lot about them. SAMUI is up a a massive 12 pounds after its last run which is a massive hike but it still has a lot of ability and probably not finished improving by any stretch of the imagination - the fact that Gordon Elliott sends it here is very interesting and Jamie Spencer's booked to ride it who is the perfect candidate for a late finish on our selection and that's likely how it would be run. He will not get the easy passage he did at Killarney when winning by nearly 20 lengths (and it was easy down it could of been nearer 30 lengths if not) Although he didn’t beat much that day he won by such a wide margin to justify favouritism it’s hard to deny his chance here at York if he gets the good ground. t’s a great partnership and a good choice from Gordon Elliott in my opinion to have Spencer on. Might be able to blow this lot away. A lot of these are really in questionable form but the reality is they have probably been targeted for this £100,000 race. ZOFFEE won the Chester Cup and has been last in two races since… do not be surprised to see it outrun odds at 22/1… marks down a bit and this will likely of been it’s next target. SPRIT MIXER is now winless since 2022 but is showing signs of winning again.. maybe this has come too soon but he has the benefit of OISIN MURPHY on board who is riding out of his skin at the moment. I’ve gone with EXTENSIO another Irish raider for the smaller O Donnell yard. Not seen him bring many over to the UK. This horse has won a number of competitive handicaps and arrives in good form. Won his last race at Firehouse when beating a strong Jonny Murtagh fav who I follow called SIXPACK… the manner in which he did so - is the reason for the bet here at York. He did all the best work in the last furlong where he asserted and stayed on strongly like a horse that didn’t want to stop at the line. This is a big step up in trip but he looks very suited for it. 4.45 - BOADICIA 14/1 and GOT TO LOVE A GREY 6/1 - 0.5 EW Our main pick in this race is GOT TO LOVE A GREY who finished half a length behind SHAGRAAN in a class 3 the last day at goodwood and should be bang there again. She’s only ever ran here once and it’s when she was a 2 year old which she actually won. If SHAGRAAN wins or runs well in the first race this will go off a lot shorter most likely. Our second selection is BOADICIA. We followed this filly the last day at Doncaster where we went to win really nicely with a late charge from the back and come to swoop late on. I think there will be plenty of pace for her to aim at in the race so could definitely be worth an each way bet. 5.20 - HANDCUFFED 17/2 and NUMBER 28/1 - 0.5 EW HANDCUFFED won on debut in a class 4 at Newbury. It wasn’t the best race by any means but Balding saw enough to send her to the G3 at Ascot for the Princess Margaret. She saw strong market support but was unable to convert this sentiment into a big run. She was second last in a closely bunch finish of 8 runners after failing to pick up in the final furlong. It looked to me like Oisin Murphy eased her towards the line as she fell out of position quite quickly. This is a big drop in class so she should be able to make more of an impression in this nursery race. It’s pretty obvious the fav ARTAGNAN is the one to beat at 6-1. James Doyle will ride and I can’t see her out the places but a 7lb rise might be a bit much for Karl Burkes 2 year old Goodwood winner… One that stands out to me at big price is NUMBER for the Butler team who has run well in defeat in all races but remains a maiden. NUMBER was last seen at ASCOT who was only denied in the denying strides. This was blanket finish with the top 4 only separated by just over a head. 4th doesn’t tell the full story. The winner of that has gone on to beat some very good horses at Yarmouth. Hayley Turner usually finds winners of her limited rides at York and she is booked but the main factor that might bring out improvement for this one is the fact that it’s been gelded. It’s certainly overpriced in my opinion at 28/1… TOTAL POINTS SUGGESTED 8
AZURE ANGEL 4.45 York. 18/1 Huge price for this horse assuming the wind op has done it’s job. Travels strongly and should get a good pace today to bring her right into this at the business end.
Yep just kicking myself I didn’t do them in a treble. All singles 3 O’Brien horses and none odds on!!
YORK FESTIVAL Right guys today looks solid. There’s 3 days of York left so tread carefully today. We had a brill day yesterday but I can’t see it being as straightforward here at York this afternoon. This is the hardest day of the four. I will post a double today but it may well come from outside York by the looks of it. I’m going to look at the other cards and see if I can find anything. 1.50 - Posted last night - HEAVENS GATE - 1 point win and BETTY CLOVER - 0.5 EW 2.25 - ARIZONA BLAZE - 1 point win & AMERICAN STYLE 28/1 0.5 EW All eyes will be on the fav ARIZONA BLAZE who drops down in company from G1 today after coming in behind WHISTLEJACKET at the Curragh. The form is miles ahead of anything else I the race bar maybe MAW LAM who I think is the main danger with Hollie Doyle on board. I’ve gone back and forth but finding it very hard to get away grin ARIZONA BLAZE today who is obviously a group horse that is running in handicap company. She has a good draw and there can’t be many excuses for losing this. Main problem is the massive field size. Something in the line up will run a big race, something will improve massively. I think AMERICAN STYLE can place here today but a win will be a big ask. Billy Loughrane will ride and this selection has been running well in defeat. Hardest assignment to date but we are drawn next to the fav ARIZONA BLAZE and this could be beneficial to our run today if Billy can get to a good start and to the front of the pack. AMERICAN STYLE will try and lead - whether he gets the lead is another matter. If he does we could well hold out for a place. 3.00 - BLUE FOR YOU 9/1 and LA TRINIDAD 33/1 - 0.5 EW BLUE FOR YOU loves York and the in form Danny Tudhope choose to ride this one for O Meara from a choice of 6 yard runners in this race. Flopped at GOODWOOD but won here at York in the race before after being smashed into 4/1 from a double digit price. I think money will come again for this one and with form at York reading 22151041 - it’s safe to say the horse saves it’s best for this track. Only one duff run in his career here. We have been handed a peach draw for this one which only strengthens our chances of a big run. LA TRINIDAD is a tracker and this will require something special to win now up 6lbs after recent win at Thirsk. Jonny Peates 3lb claim will help, the draw will not. The horse has struck at York before, including a C&D win. The horse is in good form and I think it’s worth a try at a big price. 3.35 - EMILY UPJOHN 7/2 - 1 point win - Saver PORT FAIRY 28/1 - 0.5 EW Hardest selection of the day to make as this horse has been disappointing this season. Many have given up on her. I’m close, but I’m willing to give her one more try in this company. She runs with the fillies again today and I think she can wins this one if she returns to form. She had a poor start in her last race, she was left with too much to do and didn’t pick up. The run was flat and almost too bad to be true. She’s a lot better than that and I think she can show this today. It’s very easy to dismiss a horse based on a few bad runs but the run at the Curragh in Ireland in the G1 where she went down by a neck to BLUESTOCKING is the best piece of form on offer in this race in my opinion. I think we are getting a good price on her today and she should be fav. There’s 3 places paid here so it might pay to take a chance on the outsider of the pack in PORT FAIRY. At 28/1 this horse is criminally overpriced and the Aidan O Brien second string and she has entries in the Leger ahead - she is a group 2 winner at Ascot but the price we are getting today is based upon the fact she came near last in her recent effort at the Curragh. 4.10 - KARMOLOGY 10/3 - 1 point win and NAKHEEL 17/2 0.5 EW With FAIRY GLEN now a non runner, KARMOLOGY is our main selection here. The horse loves the track and the yard is in top form. The horse ran here LTO in a listed race and just came up short. That form is the best on offer by far in my opinion. We are the one to beat from a handy draw. NAKEEL is another that drops in class after being tried at listed company. I’m surprised this one is such a juicy price considering The Owen Burrows horse now has two creditable efforts at listed level so this drop in class might be enough to see her get back to winning ways. 4.45 - SPELL MASTER 7/1 0.5 EW and GRISELDA 28/1 0.5 EW SPELL MASTER was last seen in a dead heat at GOODWOOD and the price is right for a bet here at 7/1. We are taking on the Godolphin fav. The boys in blue are not in the best form at the moment but I will be surprised if we don’t see a renewed effort from AGE OF GOLD now gelded. The Frankel colt is talented and commanded a heft price tag but our Balding selection is unexposed and will likely continue improvement today. I’ve gone with the value at 7/1. Yard has a brill record here for this race and usually goes close. I think Baldings won this one 3 times in the past 6 years. A chance is taken on GRISELDA to get back to form today under Callum Rodriquez. She racked up 4 wins in a row before finding trouble in running at Newmarket and petering out in the final furlongs to finish 8th. I don’t think this horse is the finished article yet and still has improvement in it. This is a big ask and the price is reflective of that. 5.20 - KEY TO COTAI 8/1 and ROCK MELODY 28/1 - 0.5 EW William Buick will ride KEY TO COTAI today and it’s a bit strange how it’s 8/1 and SUNFALL who beat her at Haydock is a bigger price. There were excuses in play at Haydock and she ended the race very well in a blanket finish. I’m happy to draw a line under that run and take confidence from her effort in the listed race at Carlisle where she was only denied by JABARA who has since gone on to strengthen that form with a G3 win at Goodwood and G1 3rd at Newmarket. I’m encouraged by her handicap win in a big field of 17 at Newmarket, although a class 4 and this a class 2 - she’s improved since with that listed effort and I think she is the one to beat. ROCK MELODY finished ahead of KEY TO COTAI in that HAYDOCK race and only a neck behind SUNFALL… she is up another 5lbs after squeezing a win out at Hamilton earlier in the month - quite harsh considering how close the finish was. She ran on very well and I’m a bit baffled to the price today. I think she will be competitive here and if we can over come a poor draw - we might have a very nice priced runner here. TOTAL POINTS SUGGESTED - 9
