Favourite Parthenon is a non-runner and there's a horse third in the betting at 5/1 called Tiger Mask, won last time out.
DAY TWO - SMALL profit yesterday.We will not win here everyday aim is to get profit out from the week and enjoy the festival... Get the best prices and offers you can with the bookies you use personally. Always take extra places on the bigger prices where poss. GOODWOOD DAY TWO - prices may of changed I’ve added a tip in the 4.45. 1.50 - CLOCKMAKER 16/1 & VOYAGE 18/1 - 0.5 EW 12 runners - 4 paid by most bookies give us value to go after two of the outsiders in the race. I’ve literally just watched Jamie Spencer do his usual trick - comes of the pace to win later with a hero ride. I’m hoping lightning can strike twice with CLOCKMAKER who I’ve been found of since debut. He ran in well behind the short price Godolphin fav HIDDEN LAW who we backed that evening - straight into the tracker after finishing well ahead of the rest of the rivals in the that race bar the fav. Another good run at Leicester when 3rd but the race did not play to strengths. Did well to place. This step up in class might be a bit soon for CLOCKMAKER but I’m willing to take a chance at 16/1 - been some money for him already this afternoon as I had him at 22/1 earlier. I will take a chance on VOYAGE out of stall 11. He owes us a better run that what we got in the G2 at Ascot when he was last. Not sure what happened there - needs to do better than that but it’s a fair drop in class this from G2 to class 2. Again - Hannon sent this one into the Derby - it MUST be a good one - he’s no fool. This is such an ease in class - I can’t believe the price. The horse has lots to prove but I will use Hannons faith in it as an indicator into it’s ability. ________________________________________________________________ 2.25 - JABAARA 11/4 - 1 point win - STOP THE CAVALRY 10/1 - 0.5 EW Tried hard to get away from the favourite here but doesn’t make sense with value left at 11/4. Ran a cracker in G1 at Newmarket. Second only to PORTA FORTUNE. Nearly 4 lengths ahead of anything else on the day. This is a G3. The horse is proven and is 100% the one they need to beat here - should be and may well go off shorter. KATMANDU is second fav and rightly so with a strong G1 under her belt at Deauville. I rate FAIR ANGELLICA as well but I think they will struggle to beat JABAARA in this one. STOP THE CAVALRY is still well unexposed and looks a very likely improver. When you watch back the run at Chester, he finished with plenty in hand and showed a really impressive turn off foot to come from what looked like trouble in running to winning the race by a clear margin. That was her seasonal reappearance and she will strip fitter - is she good enough to mix it up at this level? She is yet to prove that - this is her chance. ________________________________________________________________ 3.00 - SOLDIERS HEART 10/1 & VINEGAARD 10/1 - 0.5 EW A large field of 16 for this one but theres not really a noticeable draw bias here at Goodwood. I’m trying to take on the 9/4 fav here . With extra places on offer going to try SOLDIERS HEART & VINEHAARD. The favs form and win in the listed at Sandown hasn’t worked out as well as expected. We backed the 2nd in that race IT TAKES TWO - last Saturday - shocking run for 9th. With that said it’s hard to deny his effort in the Norfolk G2 at Ascot and this will be the reason he sits at the top of the market. Both of our selections have found support overnight which is a good sign SOLDIERS HEART is now 7/1 for Harry Davies and the Crisford team. This horse won at C&D in June and did so in stylish fashion and went straight into the tracker. Will improve more, he’s not the finished article yet, remains completely unexposed and I can’t see him having too much issue with the jump in class today despite it being a big one. Hollie Doyle stays on VINEGAARD who has been nibbled into 8/1... Now we have the prices on them, any market support is always a good thing. We will not be moving the market with our humble group so theres obviously people in the know that fancy these selections to some extent. I tipped this horse up at Ascot off a big price and it out ran the odds finishing 5th after halving in price before the off. A follow up in the super sprint at Newbury saw the horse denied by a neck in a big field. Can go one better today but will need to surpass stablemate AERSTERIUS who is a strong fav still at 5/2. ________________________________________________________________ 3.35 - HENRY LONGFELLOW 6/4 - 1 point win Unfortunately we will not see Ascot here ROSALLION in this line up after a slight set back for Hannons stable star. It makes my life easier as now theres only two monsters to pick from. Serious line up of horses here - all proven with G1 ability. The likes of FACEUR CHEVAL and MALJOOM simply cannot be written off because FACTOR has wins and form at G! and MALJOOM is a proven G1 performer himself. I think MALJOOM is the overpriced horse here and if there was 3 places paid that would be the EW selection. Up to you if you want to back him but i’ve left off due to lack of places. The market suggests a battle between HENRY and NOTABLE SPEECH. Very easy pick for me for many of the same reasons I went against Noble Speech at Ascot... that Ascot run, 7th in the St James was simply not impressive at all. Couldn’t pick up - in fact he looked beat a way out and simply could not pick up when asked. Others got away from him including HENRY LONGFELLOW who was only just headed by ROSALLION in final stages of the race. Last night the prices were alot closer but HENRY has been backed into short fav now and rightly so based on that previous run. NOTABLE SPEECH has a lot to find here and needs to prove his Guineas win wasn’t a fluke at this point in my opinion. ________________________________________________________________ 4.10 - WISPER 12/1 & CANDLE OF DUBAI 20/1 - 0.5 EW Two overnight drifts on WISPER and a massive one on CANDLE OF DUBAI overnight. Not ideal at all really for this one. I’ve picked WISPER here based on the Windsor run at the start of July - a Class 3 race - just denied by ANDALEEP and well ahead of the fav who I track COMPOSITE. The form looks quite strong now as COMPOSITE has ran well since and the winner ANDALEEP ran a belting race in a C2 last weekend. She has been running consistently well all year and worthy of her seat at the table at the higher level. At 33/1 for CANDLE OF DUBAI now I think it’s pretty clear I’ve picked a dud out here and the best we can hope for is a place. He’s nearly doubled in price overnight. Lets hope he can still run a decent race for us. ________________________________________________________________ 4.45 - COTO DE CAZA 6/4 - 1 point win - EW LUCKY GIFT 11/1 - 0.5 EW For an EW bet here I’ve added in LUCKY GIFT for the boys in blue. I’ve watched the horse at Lingfield this morning and it actually finsihed ahead of the favoruite by a nose - it seems silly to bet the fav and not LUCKY GIFT at that price as a cover... the fav has gone on to win well since at Beverley but LUCKY GIFT continues to improve with each race herself - these are all unexposed two year olds that grow in between races so improvement can be expected from anything in the line up and it can sometimes be dramatic. I’d keep an eye on this race for any trackers to come out of it as theres some of the smaller trainers better 2 year olds entered here - Alice Haynes has KUWAITYA who i know is highly rated by the yard for example. I think LUCKYN GIFT is a great EW when you consider its already beaten the fav - even if it was by a whisker. ________________________________________________________________ 5.20 - METAVERSE 8/1 & WOBWOBWOB 33/1 - 0.5 EW We bet METAVERSE at Newmarket the other week. Won for us easily under Buick - very straightforward and a nice winner that was well supported in the market. Stayed on gamely and strongly in the final furlong - no messing about. Couldn't ask for a better tune up ride for this step up in class today. Marquand takes over the ride and I can’t see why he won’t be able to remain competitive and put a good run together for us here. WOBWOBWOB was too big at 33/1 last night and has already been slashed to 16/1 by some bookies. Ran second in this race last year - we would be happy with a place at 33/1 but this one can pop up at anytime and win. The best tactic for this horse is to strike late off the pace - but it can fight back to win, gritty horse on the day we have collected numerous times off this one and in higher classes of races. Love this horse and hope we have picked it on one of its going days. Conditions will suit, mark is right - runs of 90 today - won a class 2 of 87. TOTAL POINTS 8 - LUCKY GIFT aded in the 4.45
GOODWOOD DAY 3…. 1.50 - WATCHA MATEY 16-1 & SISYPHEAN 9-1 - 0.5 EW I do have a tracker in this race BRIONI who has Vincent Ho booked. I can’t believe they haven’t booked Vincent on some penalty kicks this week for Goodwood - doesn’t do much to raise anyones profile for him to come over and flop. He’s a small chance today on BRIONI here at 33-1. WATCHA MATEY won well in a class 3 at Musselburgh before struggling in the C2 Britannia at Ascot (8th out 29th runners but it was a flat run) - he followed this up at Newmarket with a 6th place effort (13 runners) very unlucky not to get into the places of a mark of 93 - he was just in behind QIRAT who took over near the line (a horse we are on in a later race) We run of the same mark today, still at C2 but we have an interesting jockey booking with Ryan Moore taking over for the first time. Connections were very bullish on WATCHA MATEY at both Ascot and Newmarket - but they were unable to get close to doing the job. I think this jockey booking shows they still believe in him. 16-1 is a cracking price for an EW here. I don’t really think the draw bias is effective at Goodwood anymore but with rain overnight it can sometimes play into the strengths of high numbers. This should help SISYPHEAN today who is in stall 14 who won on Good-soft ground at York. He’s been hit with a 10lb rise for a 5 length win that day - it was seriously impressive but this is obviously significant harder. ——————————————————————————————————————————————————————————————————————————- 2.25 - STRIKING VIKING 5-4 - 1 point win & THE WACO KID 11-1 More support for THE STRIKING VIKING overnight - this one could well go off odds on favourite - maybe understandable considering experience and his last effort when in behind HENRY MATISSE at the Curragh in a strong G2 race where STRIKING VIKING easily outran the fav and lost by half a length. I think that form is matched by two horses - so it might not be as easy as the market makes it out to be. BILLBOARD STAR who might be the danger here - his form has been seriously franked by a big run on Tuesday from AMORI CITY who was behind him at Newmarket. The other is TROPICAL STORM who ran well in behind SHAREHOLDER (we was on SHAREHOLDER so watched that race at the time - never really troubled us - but finished well ahead of other rivals) We have another outsider with Ryan Moore on in THE WACO KID - steps up in class after a decisive win at Newmarket - possibly aided by the fav dropping out of the race quite early on (stayed on well but was out of it half way in) - big step up in class for THE WACO KID to G2 company but he is obviously a progressive type with more in the locker. Hopefully this hasn’t come to soon. I’m also a bit wary about backing Moore on long shot EWs as he doesn’t always ride out for a place when beat in my experience but the horses were chosen before I knew who was riding them… ——————————————————————————————————————————————————————————————————————————- 3.00 - BELLUM JUSTUM 9/2 Only two paid here I did say EW last night at 5-1 but now at 9/2 there’s no EW value left at all unfortunately. We are trying to beat an unbeaten O Brien odds on fav here and have our work cut out. BELLUM JUSTUM and the fav JAN BRUEGHEL have both been tried at G3 already - JAN won, we were just denied by a length and 3rd place but our race was harder… We also ran well in the Derby - finishing 7th in the G1 classic. Notably we finished ahead of the likes of ANCIENT WISDOM who has gone on to win a G3 himself recently. Our forms been franked but improvement still needed to beat the short fav. ————————————————————————————————————————————————————————————————————————— 3.35 - EMILY UP JOHN - 11-4 - Small saver DOHA 50-1 I’ve spent more time on this race than any other this week - probably any other this year actually. I’ve watched ALL of EMILY UP JOHNS runs this season before landing on her over OPERA SINGER. They are joint favs currently on most bookies with the preference for OPERA SINGER who is as short as 7/4 elsewhere. There’s a third horse vying for favouritism and that’s the French trained G1 winning SPARKLING PLENTY - I’ve watched her last two races at Chantilly yesterday and she isn’t here to make up the numbers. Looks very good - finishes very well - commentators comment after winning ‘well, I’ve no idea where that came from’ - she will look to do the business LATE in the race and pick up any pieces from the battle between the top 2 in the market. I’m hoping this is EMILY UP JOHNS day - the value is there at 11/4… the form is strong - I don’t think Kieran Shoemark has done much wrong on her this year just been in very tough races. No shame coming second to BLUESTOCKING (who came second himself in the King George on Saturday) EMILY simply never settled in the Epsom race - I’m going to give her one more chance to collect her G1 for the season - but it’s no easy task today. I’ve put up DOHA for a small EW as the horse owes us nothing and might sneak a place - Hector Crouch is in brilliant form but the price is the correct one at 50/1 - this is a huge step up to G1 company for DOHA who was second LTO when tried at listed level. ——————————————————————————————————————————————————————————————————————————- 4.10 - VEYDARI 16-1 & FEARLESS FREDDY 7-1 Small yard has targeted FEARLESS FREDDY for this race despite having numerous of opportunities to run him since his last race. They have a genuine chance of a Goodwood winner here - FEARLESS FREDDY goes of near bottom weight - he’s still plenty of improvement left in him and won Leicester race in June despite running green. A near two months off should see a bigger and stronger animal now - hopefully fulfils potential today up in class. Vincent Ho rides VEYDARI (again he’s been given a long shot) - I think this one has a puncher’s chance but the step up in trip needs to unlock more improvement. Winless in 3 races so far - there’s no doubt he’s improving and an unfinished article. I’d be a lot happier with VEYDARI today if James Doyle kept the ride as he’s been on twice. Not sure why he’s not booked for the Watnam team in all honesty… ——————————————————————————————————————————————————————————————————————————- 4.45 - SHAGRAAN 9-2 & MC LOVEN 11-1 Money has come for SHAGRAAN and he will go off favourite in my opinion. This is the last time I’ll bet the horse if he doesn’t win today. There can’t be anymore excuses for him. We have been on to SHAGRAAN for a while who has simply never not ran a good race. Each loss over the past year has shown strong signs of encouragement - but he walks away with a place. He was never nearer when in the Holyroodhouse at Ascot this year and that was a blanket finish in a C2. He drops in class today - I know the breeder of this horse - We have heard in good authority it’s smashing a G1 winner on the gallops… COME ON SHAGRAN LAD get the job done today!!! Oisin Murphy has been quiet this week - looks to have found a good one to mount here in MC LOVEN who has seen drastic improvement this year on the turf. 5lbs up for recent win shouldn’t be enough to stop him from being competitive here. Great price at 11-1 and probably should be shorter for this race. ——————————————————————————————————————————————————————————————————————————- 5.20 - STELLENBOSCH 11-2 & ARABIAN LEOPARD 16-1 Money haas come for STELLENBOSCH which is encouraging but this race is a maiden for 2 year olds. The fact that the unraced DREAMY is the favourite here for the O Brien teams speaks volumes. This is not a race to have big bets in small EW’s for both selections. ARABIAN LEOPARD is yet to see a race track himself yet but he’s another expensive yearling that’s changed hands for a big sum as a 2 year old - very nice breeding and one that stands out on paper for connections who tend to do well with their first timers. ——————————————————————————————————————————————————————————————————————————- 5.55 - QIRAT 9/2 & APIARIST 33/1 It’s going to take a long time for APIARIST to owe this group anything after winning at 40-1 for us late last year - 4241534 - form remains solid - price is massive at 33/1. Plenty of places paid - hard not to have a small go really. Always tends to run well. This race is easier than his Ascot one surely? Ran 3rd in a class 2 at Haydock in May. 33-1 is too big for APAIARST today… QIRAT will go off favourite now after market support. Ryan Moore rides. The horse has a bit to prove for the Beckett team. It was expected to be a group horse this one. Won here at Goodwood last year but has gone backwards since and failed to win at both Ascot and Newmarket. Returns to Goodwood still 4lbs higher than last winning mark but has a good opportunity to get back into the winners enclosure now down in class again.
Sorry it’s late GOODWOOD DAY 4: Write ups sent in the morning! Cheers guys! 1.50 - NACHTGEIST 40/1 & ROBERT JOHNSON 14/1 - 0.5 EW 2.25 - UNDECIDED post tomorrow 3.00 - PEROTTO 15/2 & CLASSIC 9/1 - 0.5 EW 3.35 - BIG EVS 9/4 - 1 point win & KERDOS 18/1 - 0.5 EW 4.10 - CICEROS GIFT 5/2 - 1 point win 4.45 - THE ACTOR 14/1 & ARDENNES 10/1 - 0.5 EW 5.20 - SUN GOD 9/1 & DAMBUSTER 12/1 - 0.5 EW TOTAL POINTS 6.5
GOODWOOD DAY FIVE Not the best week at Goodwood - will be tallied at the end of the weekend but we will need to near go through the card to profit overall. Let’s hope we can profit today. There are zero guarantees - it looks rock solid so bet sensibly. I’m not going to be around much. I’m in Centre Parcs - hardly any signal anywhere - of walking with the kids today. Will do my best to catch up with messages later this evening. 1.50 - AL AASY 7/2 - 1 point win 2.25 - FAIRBANKS 10/3 - 1 point win & GREAT BEDWYN 9/1 - 0.5 EW 3.00 - CAIUS CHORISTER 3/1 - 1 point win & RIVER OF STARS 10/1 - 0.5 EW 3.35 - BILLY JOH 17/2 & ROCKET RODNEY 50/1 - 0.5 EW 4.10 - JEHANGEER 13/2 & SPANISH BLAZE 15/2 - 0.5 EW 4.45 - HOTT SHOTT 15/2 & SPELL MASTER 11/2 - 0.5 EW 5.20 - NATIVE WARRIOR 15/8 - 1 point win & SIMPLY SONDHEIM 25/1 - 0.5 EW TOTAL POINTS 8.5
VIP Sunday Decent day yesterday at Goodwood with a few winners and places but even the bloody decent winner we got was 50% return due to a dead heat… summed our luck up at GOODWOOD this week. We haven’t made a profit overall from following the tips - I’ll post a summary along with last months points results (profit again) when I get back from Centre Parcs on Tuesday. Had a few complaints with results which is fair enough but I’m not a punching bag or magician will have losing days, streaks, months. If you’re unhappy can cancel anytime but turning on the admin is a bit silly - this is gambling - I don’t offer any guarantees - Tipping 0.5 EW and 1 point wins is not for my benefit - it’s for yours - it keeps stakes sensible and helps survive any inevitable loss periods. This has led me to scrap the trial. 750+ members in here (most lifetime) is enough to concentrate on. I think the service is established enough to draw the line and try and get more serious members in here and those that will potentially benefit the group rather than hinder it. ______________________________________________________________ CHESTER Few members are at Chester today so I’ve done a few more than I usually would here on a Sunday. 4.05 race - One I want to mention is FLAMING RIB at 33/1 (0.5 EW)_ This horse was placing in G1 races a year ago but he’s completely fallen of the boil of late. He will be back into handicaps if not improving soon. I would say IF he was to get any form back at all - it could be at Chester where he won a few times earlier on in career and where his trainer thrives. It’s very hard to bet against upcoming fav AL SHABAB STORM who is obviously talented and still yet to reach his ceiling of ability (looks like a group horse in the making tbh, we will see today) at 10/11 - it’s too short for my to tip - if there’s any drift out I will probably back it nearer the off… For now I’ve a small EW saver on FLAMING RIB - would love 2/1 for the fav but looks unlikely. 2.30 - ORDER OF MALTA 8-1 - 1 point EW I actually track PRINCESS NIYLA and think she is an improving horse in good form. She won at this track for Hugo Palmer a year ago but has since changed hands and is now trained by the Brown team who finally found a working formula for her after months of frustrating performances. Rowan Scott usually takes the ride but ROSSA RYAN replaces him today. The race is over 1 mile 2 furlongs so the draw bias will not be as effective over this distance but with all this said my bet today will be on ORDER OF MALTA who is a cracking price at 8-1 especially if you can get the 4 places on offer with Sky. Dropped a further 2lbs for this race - he’s been ran by the Palmer team this summer and only managed 4th and 5th. Last effort was on heavy ground. There’s none of that today - it’s well worth nothing he went off 15/8 for a race of this class in May so we are essentially now getting nearly 7 times that price and EW cover with a horse that is now 5lbs below his last winning effort. The value on offer is why I’ve gone against the likeable fav today. 4.35 - NEVER SO BRAVE 15/8 - 1 point win - BOARDMAN 20/1 0.25 EW BOARDMAN is a tracker horse we know well. I’ve backed him a couple of times recently to no avail as he’s now 10lbs below his last winning mark so you would think he would start to look like winning a race soon… He’s been useless at Chester so far this year - a course he has won at 5 times I think… however it’s over a year ago since he won or placed here. He’s ran OK in last two outings at York and Doncaster but this race is a step up in class so it makes sense to see him at 20/1 rather than the 10/1 he went off at last time. I’ve had a small EW despite him getting a poor draw - he should know enough about the track to get into a decent position. I like that we have Dave Allen as well. He’s been popping up to do the business for Easterby on a few of his well handicapped and big price horses of late. My main bet of the race is on NEVER SO BRAVE (won here in May with Ryan Moore on). Bit disappointed to miss the better price on offer earlier this morning so 15/8 will have to do. The form lines of this horse are particularly strong for a race like this and you would expect NEVER SO BRAVE to win this quite easily now dropped back to handicap class after a fair effort in the Jersey Stakes G3 at Ascot. TOTAL POINTS SUGGESTED - 2.75 points (with flaming rib)
VIP evening selections. 5.23 Kempton - I LOVE DAD - 1 point win The second place in the form book was a class 3 race and a very good effort. I feel after watching the race back LTO where I LOVE DAD came 4th to GRISELDA (odds on fav that day) that Saffie eased the horse and didn’t bother fully riding out as she knew the horse was beaten. The horse gave up 3rd with little fight. This looks a good opportunity to break maiden at a decent price. 20.10 Yarmouth - SIR RODNEYREDBLOOD 9-1 - 0.5 ew Baffling price considering this went off at 6/4 in a similar event and ran fairly well with a second place. Looks very good value in this low class affair. Big price for this C&D winner. 5.40 Yarmouth - ORIENTAL ART - 13/2 - 0.5 ew I like the claimer who rides ORIENTAL ART and feel he is worth following over the next few months with a 5lb claim. He goes again on ORIENTAL ART tonight at Yarmouth who brings solid form into the race. Unlucky not to win last time out and also had a few traffic problems when second previously. Total points 2.
