Did I hear the magic words 'Arc stats'?!? These are the ones that I've got noted - No horse since Star Appeal, in 1975, has won The Arc in the same season as running in a handicap (he was beaten, on his seasonal bow, at Cologne). Japanese trained runners are 0/32 in the race. Since 1991 only 1 Arc winner was having its first run at the trip - 1/29 since 1991. 17 of the last 21 winners of the race had run between 21 and 29 days prior to the Arc. 15 of the last 18 winners of the Arc, run at Longchamp, broke from a single figure draw. 13 of these were no wider than stall 6. No St Leger winner has ever won the Arc in the same season - 0/10 so far this century (formline -5070040735). 7 out of the last 8 winners of the Arc had Urban Sea in their pedigree. Only 1 horse has won the Prix du Jockey Club and then gone on to win the Arc, in their 3YO season, since 2004. No 6YO has ever won the Arc. Aidan O'Brien is 2/56 in the race.
Quality input for the Forum I would also add - no horse named after a Coronation Street character has won the race although Coronation was victorious in 1949
One final stat (which I missed off the list earlier) - The last Arc scorer with winning form over 14 furlongs, or beyond, was Gold River in 1981.
FULL RESULT Delius not disgraced after slow start but Sosie (By Sea The Stars out of a Shamardal mare) is now a C&D winner on soft in a good time it must be said. That performance must have shortened his odds; must go and check bookmaker reaction
Can't remember what he was but is now down to 12s with most, with Delius at 20s. Sosie was beaten 2¼L by Look De Vega over 1m2½f Heavy in the French Derby so if he is as good, or better, over 12f his chance has been boosted and he is as low as 3/1 Still a very open race
So the Grand Prix de Paris did not really answer too many questions. The winner Sosie could be overpriced for the Arc if one is prepared to overlook the fact that he was previously behind the Prix Du Jockey Club winner Look De Vega. Only problem for the latter is that he has never raced beyond ten furlongs. I note that the bookies shortened both of them; but at least the Fabre horse is proven at the trip. I have issues with the Grand Prix de Paris form. Firstly, I do not think that it was really a Group 1 race. The filly Tamfana had contested two Group 1 races but not won either. There was no other Group 1 form in the race except Sosie and Mondo Man in the Prix Du Jockey Club, which was why I sided with her record on the form book. Early on the pace was moderate with Illinois on the inside and Sibayan running wide of the field. The Rouget horse then tacked across to the rail and took a clear lead with Illinois second, Mondo Man third and the eventual winner fourth. On the turn for home, Illinois went to the front but was immediately challenged by Sosie. Tamfana began her run from the back as did Delius from last place. Tamfana’s run petered out and Illinois stayed on again to pass her for second and Delius caught the filly in the last hundred yards to end up third. Once Sosie had gone to the front he never saw a challenger and he was not hard ridden to win. It would be interesting to see the sectionals because I got the impression the fastest part of the race was the two furlong sprint from the home turn not the end of the race. I have to wonder if Illinois was in the race to find out whether he was up to this level and he may now be aimed at the St Leger as his trainer has generally tended to send Queen’s Vase winners in that direction. The Delius bubble was clearly burst as he came too late, much later than last time. He confirmed the Prix du Lys form with Internaute and Saganti but little more and taking that as a marker this may not have been a brilliant renewal. Outside of the first four none of the others really had any credible chance. My suspicion is that Menuisier’s filly did not stay as she travelled well through the race but found nothing in the last two furlongs. I can see her heading for the Nassau or dropping back to a mile but avoiding Porta Fortuna. Given that the only two Grand Prix de Paris winners this century to go on and win the Arc were Bago in 2004 and Rail Link in 2006, I am not getting too excited yet. Two winners in the last ten years have gone on to St Leger success.
Agreed but on pedigree he should be OK, and Ace Impact was in the same boat last year. Defitely a question mark though I though Delius (and Sosie) were fillies Seemed like girlie names
Looks like the only ones being backed at present are: Look de Vega, into 3s Sosie, into 10s White Birch, into 16s (? inside knowledge) Delius, into 16s The only drifter is City of Troy, out to 12s
It's just possible we may see a useful filly in the Irish Oaks on Saturday. Just half an hour after Los Vegas won the Irish Derby, another Lope de Vega offspring, Lope de Lilas out of a Galileo mare sauntered to victory over the same C&D (in a maiden) in a time more than a second faster, that just her second outing 195 days after her promising 5th of 11 in heavy ground on her debut. She has the favourite, Port Fairy, to beat but to me those prices look all wrong. Port Fairy is 11/4 fav whilst Lope de Lilas is at 6/1. I reckon that is outstanding value ew and if she wins impressively she could enter Arc calculations (although not entered)
The race after the Irish Oaks is a G2 race over 14f where 3yos meet their elders. There is an interesting runner there too. Jan Brueghel, a Galileo colt out of the Danehill Dancer mare Devoted to You, whose dam sire was the 2 times Arc winner Alleged, great grandson of the great 2 times Arc winner Ribot. Now one may wonder why on earth have I mentioned this one, running in a G2 14f race. Well, firstly, he is unbearten in 2 runs (May and June) both over 10f. He has entries in 3G1s and 3 G2s ranging from 1m2½f to 2 miles. One of those is the Great Voltigeur Stakes for which he is already 6/1 jf with Illinois ( Arabian Crown is 3/1 fav). IF he were to win that impressively he could possibly be another candidate for the Arc (again would need supplementing) The very fact that I have now raised 2 horses not even entered for the Arc reflects my view on this year's Arc as things stand
Well that went tits up. She beat Port Fairy (who finished last but one). Both drifted, Port Fairy out to 9s and Lope de Lilas (finished 2 in front in 11th place) out to 12s Oh dear, form all over the place. The winner, You Got to Me finished 12l ahead of Port Fairy having previously been beaten 2½l by her. She is entered in the Arc at 33/1; The form lines are now not looking too encouraging for Los Angeles The Arc just continues to look a complicated race on which to form any opinion with confidence
I was hoping th KG might produce the Arc winner but that now looks unlikely with Arc 20/1 shot Auguste Rodin the 11/8 clear fav and the best horse AOB has ever trained on offer at 14/1 for the Arc and 10/1 for the KG. Very disappointing
Looking at the entries for the King George VI and Queen Elizabeth Stakes, it does not look like we will be getting many Arc pointers. The entry is dominated by Ballydoyle and the only three year old is Irish Derby runner up Sunway. So this really looks like a case of which of the O’Brien entries are going to be pacemakers for presumed first choice Auguste Rodin. Of course, Auguste Rodin might decide to have another of his days where he cannot be bothered so continues to look like a mug’s bet. He will be making the market for the rest but there are problems there as well. Rebel’s Romance is a multiple Group 1 winner but his last turf win in this country was the Glorious Stakes in 2022, which he followed up with the Breeders’ Cup Turf. If the Godolphin gelding wins on Saturday then that gives us no Arc clues whatsoever as he is ineligible. Purely on the form of his course and distance third in the Hardwicke, Middle Earth is not good enough to win (French raider Goliath was second, St Leger winner Continuous was fifth). Now that she has her Group 1, Bluestocking could be allowed to take on the boys; however, the likely prevailing quick ground might not be to her liking, her best career performances being when the word ‘soft’ appears in the going report. I expected her to go to the Nassau followed by the Yorkshire Oaks but her trainer now has an Irish Oaks winner in his yard so might want to keep them apart.
I suspect the owners of Goliath are scrambling around trying to remember where they put Goliath's balls after that demolition job. And the form just gets muddier. Passenger finished lame at York so looks risky This is looking like City of Troy's Arc to lose if he turns up. He probably won't but if I had to have a bet I think I would risk a small stake on him to win at the 14/1 on offer from Sky Bet, unless there is a NRNB price at 6/1 or better Just waiting now to see if anything pops out of the woodwork between now and October
According to Timeform ratings, the top two rated horses in Europe currently are Kyprios and White Birch on a mark of 128. So we will have to wait and see what happens with White Birch, who has not been seen since thrashing Auguste Rodin in the Tattersalls Gold Cup. He holds entries in the Juddmonte, Irish Champion and Irish St Leger. Right now, the 20/1 for him might be a decent each way shout in a race that is 10/1 bar one. He is fifth in the betting. On the official Longines World’s Best Racehorse Rankings, the last European middle distance horse with a rating of 130 or more was Baaeed (135) in 2022 (intermediate distance) preceded by Ghaiyyath (130) in 2020 (intermediate distance), Cracksman (130) in 2017/8 (intermediate distance) or Golden Horn (130) in 2015 (long distance). Ghaiyyath was the last European horse to top the annual ratings. Note that intermediate distance is 9.5 to 10.5 furlongs, so Golden Horn was the last 130 rated Arc winner. Last year’s top European horses were Ace Impact and Mostahdaf on 128 behind Japan’s Equinox on 135. The current top rated European trained horses are City Of Troy and Rebel’s Romance on 123, the latter’s rating obtained in the Dubai Sheema Classic.
