In terms of a Derby winner, I think Galileo was his best Derby winner. I seem to recall seeing that on Timeform ratings for just that one race, the late all-conquering stallion was top of the list of ten. I know that the highest Timeform rating by any O’Brien horse belongs to Hawk Wing but I have never agreed with that rating based on a single performance in the Lockinge, a race that he stole from the front. He was beaten in the Guineas by Rock Of Gibraltar and by High Chaparral in the Derby as a three year old. Ignoring ‘ratings’ assessments of ‘best’ horses, I was a big fan of Giant’s Causeway, a very good battler who always ran a good race even when he got beat and deserving of his nickname ‘The Iron Horse’. I am sure he ended up with a pretty good Timeform rating.
Yes. The only way to beat him was to come wide and late; to make sure he didn't see them until it was too late. I don't think any horse out-eyeballed him
Well I am looking for a new ante post for the Arc as my bet has not even made the second week of July: Betfred Oaks winner Ezeliya retired after suffering setback
Vey, very disappointing news re Ezeliya. You would have had to conclude, after her Oaks triumph, that she would have gone very close at Longchamp (especially in receipt of every allowance) and then, potentially, gone on to be a major player in all the top middle distance events for another season or two. Her future offspring though must be very closely looked out for, methinks. Re the 2024 Arc nothing really taking the market by storm, is there?!? Those bookie chappies currently shouting '6/1, the field'.
That the Arc betting is 6/1 the field tells us everything we already know about the current flat season to date. The main older horses that we might be looking to all have issues or question marks against them. White Birch is on the easy list, Passenger is on the easy list (is he another one that won’t be seen again from the Sir Michael Stoute barn like Desert Crown?), Al Riffa surely is not good enough and has never run over the trip, Zarakem got very close to Auguste Rodin at Royal Ascot but that was a career best, Horizon Dore has never run over the trip, the mare Mqse De Sevigne has never run over the trip, Continuous (fifth last year) needs to show better than fifth in the Hardwicke to book a ticket; and Luxembourg will surely not have Ryan Moore’s services and he had last year’s Arc eighth Feed The Flame behind when winning the Coronation Cup. Will Emily Upjohn be kept to same sex races and any word on where Arrest might next be seen? The three year olds are a bit of a quandary too. I do not think that City Of Troy will show up (nor do the bookies) and the current favourite Look De Vega was visually impressive in an unsatisfactory Prix Du Jockey Club. Los Angeles could end up being the Coolmore first string at Longchamp, depending on whether he is being targeted at the St Leger. I think that Economics may stick to ten furlongs but we will have to wait to see him again. Clearly the talking horse amongst the Classic generation is the unbeaten Delius, a son of Frankel trained by Jean-Claude Rouget and owned by Sue Magnier. The Grand Prix de Paris might answer some questions for us regarding the French three year olds. If we are looking for a three year old filly, Prix de Diane winner Sparkling Plenty, from the smaller operation of Patrice Cottier (trains Horizon Dore), is presumably being saved for the Prix Vermeille although she holds a Nassau entry. I am waiting for news of the Pretty Polly winner Bluestocking. They will stick to her own sex for now, I expect, so it will probably be the Nassau followed by the Yorkshire Oaks. Will they fancy a weekend in Paris in October but be more tempted by the Prix de la Opéra? All of that write up and I have not mentioned a Godolphin horse. Arabian Crown at 33/1 is their shortest priced entry.
At present I'm looking at Los Angeles. Beaten 6l in the Epsom derby by COT but I think he had many excuses that day. Won the Irish Derby in an exceptional time but would have been more impressed had he strung the field out (only 1½l between the first 4) albeit the first 4 all have some decent form. 25/1 currently available so that would be my tentative ew hope at present
I don't know but I don't take any notice of stats. Irish Derby winners have won the Arc though. The KG later this month will tell us what chance he has. If he doesn't win that, I'll be crossing him off my list
I am sure that not many would consider Los Angeles finishing third in the Derby as “run down the field”. He reversed the form with the second at The Curragh. Dylan Thomas – third at Epsom, won at The Curragh. Sakhee – second at Epsom. If I went through the Arc fields of this century, there are probably plenty of horses that ran at Epsom or The Curragh that subsequently ran well at Longchamp. Ones that immediately spring to mind are Westover (third Epsom), Hurricane Lane (third Epsom) and Highland Reel (unplaced The Curragh) all placed at Longchamp. If the winners of the Classics do not go to Paris then that is one/two less to beat.
Re Arc stats When I put up Enable at 20/1 after winning the Oaks, I think I was told that an Oaks winner had never won the Arc. To which I commented but plenty of Derby winners have and she was better than the Derby winner. Won the Arc (twice) When I put up Alpinista at 16/1, I believe no 5yo mare had won the Arc (unless it was yonks ago). But her form was better than any of the other runners, unbeaten in last 7 races (5 G1s) and had beaten the previous year's winner fair and square Didn't put up Ace Impact but I think the stats indicated the fact he had never won beyond 10½F gave him little hope For me, there is no outstanding bet this year and I am not proposing one but, for the time being I am looking at Los Angeles. Delius is interesting, being lightly raced and unbeaten. Has her first attempt at 12f on Saturday which could either put her out of the running or challenging for favouritism. Looks like the other unbeaten horse Look De Vega goes straight to the Arc without being tested over the distance, although pedigree would indicate 12f should suit An impressive winner of the KG looks the best bet unless they don't all turn up
