General Election 4th July ...

[OldNewtown]

As expected Labour hold Easington but how the hell do 10,000 people vote for Reform. Politicians have a lot to answer for when normal, ordinary, decent people start voting for Reform in those numbers.
I can't quite get my head around it.

 

[Blond Bombshell]

Good morning Labour Britain. Today is the day. Over the moon that baboon Rees-Mogg has gone.

 

[ISOE II]

As expected Labour hold Easington but how the hell do 10,000 people vote for Reform. Politicians have a lot to answer for when normal, ordinary, decent people start voting for Reform in those numbers.
I can't quite get my head around it.

Because they don’t align to either the current Labour or Conservative policies, so go for someone who says he can change things even though with FPTP he knows he can’t (but he delivered Brexit which many of them wanted) so he has a proven history of delivery. However, whenever they try to get their views heard they’re labelled as racists and become disengaged, go quite so they become a rather large hidden minority. If the main parties stopped looking down their noses at Reform voters, engaged them, listened to them and tried to win them over then maybe you wouldn’t see 4 million people voting (many as a protest vote who aren’t racists) for Reform.

 

[DELETED ACCOUNT 1234]

I thought Starmer spoke really well in his speech. I like his comments about "country first, party second". Hopefully we'll get some common sense politics and quiet competency from here.

 

[TopCat.]

I thought Starmer spoke really well in his speech. I like his comments about "country first, party second". Hopefully we'll get some common sense politics and quiet competency from here.

Agreed. It's time for some stability now after 8 years of ****ing chaos since that Brexit shambles.

 

[OldNewtown]

Because they don’t align to either the current Labour or Conservative policies, so go for someone who says he can change things even though with FPTP he knows he can’t (but he delivered Brexit which many of them wanted) so he has a proven history of delivery. However, whenever they try to get their views heard they’re labelled as racists and become disengaged, go quite so they become a rather large hidden minority. If the main parties stopped looking down their noses at Reform voters, engaged them, listened to them and tried to win them over then maybe you wouldn’t see 4 million people voting (many as a protest vote who aren’t racists) for Reform.

Fair points.
It's one thing having a protest vote but, on an admittedly small sample, two people I know who voted Reform, their vote was based upon stopping illegal immigration. The same people voted for Brexit to protect our Borders.
It probably does go back to voters feeling that their opinion doesn't matter and it won't change things. I remember my father telling me that Labour will always win Easington and that as a consequence they don't have to do much to keep it. Perhaps the main parties should look a little harder at what they need to do for ordinary people across the UK and not just in those constituencies that often decide an Election.
We can only hope.

 

[Smug in Boots]

Because they don’t align to either the current Labour or Conservative policies, so go for someone who says he can change things even though with FPTP he knows he can’t (but he delivered Brexit which many of them wanted) so he has a proven history of delivery. However, whenever they try to get their views heard they’re labelled as racists and become disengaged, go quite so they become a rather large hidden minority. If the main parties stopped looking down their noses at Reform voters, engaged them, listened to them and tried to win them over then maybe you wouldn’t see 4 million people voting (many as a protest vote who aren’t racists) for Reform.

In fairness the two main parties and Reform all want to sort out the immigration problem which is a huge issue for people.

Johnson, Patel, Braverman, Sunak, etc were a shambles who have wasted years and multi millions with it.

Nevertheless they've continually pounded away at Labour saying they'll make things worse, that's stuck with some people.

Then along comes Farage who says he'll simply scoop up everyone on small boats and dump them on French beaches.

That's impossible, I doubt it's even legal tbh.

But he's so confident that people vote for that policy, I doubt they could name another Reform policy ...

... although that might be disrespective.

 

[polyphemus]

As expected Labour hold Easington but how the hell do 10,000 people vote for Reform. Politicians have a lot to answer for when normal, ordinary, decent people start voting for Reform in those numbers.
I can't quite get my head around it.

If you were able to ask them I SUSPECT that many would reply by asking 'what has labour done for us when they were in power'.
Many of the guarenteed Labour Seats in the North East, finaly rebelled last time.
Many still seem to be in that mood.

 

[FellTop]

I have woken up in a Labour constituency! A bit surprising as despite the desire to get shot of the conservatives labour didnt put up much of a fight. I am ok with a labour MP if they are prepares to be a local MP first, time will tell.

What has shocked me is the vote share for reform here. A real worry, and I suspect when the bare numbers are crunched that is where the numbers counted. They were a clear 3rd, taking a lot of conservative vote share. Lib Dems absolutely crashed here, which is where my vote went. The Green candidate is a long time councillor in our little world, I know him well, and he did a good job in getting his message across. I am at a loss as to why more didnt vote Lib Dems or Greens v Reform instead of conservative.

Starmer spoke well. I am hoping it is more magnanimous stuff later. I hope he can deliver on his ambitions. I like Reeves a lot so he has a good chancellor I believe.

Lib dems did really well. I am very happy with that. The sooner we get away from a 2 party voice the better and the Lib Dems have some excellent policies.

I want to see the underlying vote data when it is available. Some of the early analysis is a bit of an eye opener. Turnout seems to be lower than I thought, although really solid here.

 

[DELETED ACCOUNT 1234]

Good speech from Ed Davey too! It'll be brilliant if Labour and Lib Dems can actually engage in productive debate within the House of Commons. I think both parties fundamentally have the same priorities for the country, just slightly different ways to go about it. I think Lib Dem were bolder with their vision which is why they got my vote, but if Labour are true to their word and it's "Country first, party second" then debate between the two could be productive.

It's all about what kind of politics they want to engage in I guess.

 

[The Norton Cat]

In fairness the two main parties and Reform all want to sort out the immigration problem which is a huge issue for people.

Johnson, Patel, Braverman, Sunak, etc were a shambles who have wasted years and multi millions with it.

Nevertheless they've continually pounded away at Labour saying they'll make things worse, that's stuck with some people.

Then along comes Farage who says he'll simply scoop up everyone on small boats and dump them on French beaches.

That's impossible, I doubt it's even legal tbh.

But he's so confident that people vote for that policy, I doubt they could name another Reform policy ...

... although that might be disrespective.

Scrap Net Zero.
Leave the ECHR.
Scary things.

What's scarier is, some of their policies will be very popular, like scrapping the licence fee. And not everything they say is daft; zero tolerance on anti-social behaviour is definitely something I could support. With the number of people that voted for them, I think there's a very real danger that they could become a significant political force by the next GE. I think its imperative that either the Tories sort themselves out, or someone else arrives, to occupy the slightly right of centre ground and drown them out.

 

[Robertson]

I'm a bit stunned that the Tories held Stockton West by about 2000 votes. What makes people think 'yeah they are doing a good job so I'll vote for them again'. Labour's candidate might not have been strong enough I suppose and the Reform vote has caused weird things to happen.

Edit - of course the boundaries were redrawn from Stockton South so that's another factor

 

[Riever]

I'm very pleased to see the end of Tory mismanagement.

I'm a bit of a statistics geek though and do puzzle over some of the results thus far:

Labour increase their vote by just 1.6% and more than double their seats resulting in a landslide

Reform get over 4 million votes for 4 seats - Lib Dems get less than 3.5 million votes for 71 seats

The system is clearly flawed - I get that proportional representation can result in a stalemate but there has to be a better system than this. Dramatically culling the number of constituencies might be a start.

 

[OldNewtown]

If you were able to ask them I SUSPECT that many would reply by asking 'what has labour done for us when they were in power'.
Many of the guarenteed Labour Seats in the North East, finaly rebelled last time.
Many still seem to be in that mood.

I've said for many years the best thing Easington could do would be to elect a Conservative MP. That would grab some attention and make politicians think. It would be surprising how much attention, and cash, Easington would then get.
Just for the record I am not a Conservative I'm just espousing the potential benefits of being a borderline or swing constituency.

Do like a bit of "What have the Romans ever done for us, apart from...:

 

[DELETED ACCOUNT 1234]

3 out of 5 isn't too bad.

Mordaunt and Hunt are the biggest scalps and both very surprising to me. Mordaunt was the potential leader to make them respectable again in my opinion. I can only see them veering to the right from here.

Shapps, Keegan and Coffey all gone too.

Hunt retained his seat. I'm sure someone has misreported that this morning or maybe I dreamt it, but I was sure it was reported that he was gone.

 

[WorkyTicketFTM]

As expected Labour hold Easington but how the hell do 10,000 people vote for Reform. Politicians have a lot to answer for when normal, ordinary, decent people start voting for Reform in those numbers.
I can't quite get my head around it.

Think of how many up here vote labour blindly though. 3 of my mates in our group chat have no interest in politics whatsoever and vote labour because their parents do I bet there’s hundreds of thousands up here who have no interest, didn’t read any of the manifestos yet will vote labour every election just as I’d imagine similar communities do the same for the tories.

The big 2 are so uninspiring at the minute it’s no surprise Reform have managed a decent share of the votes. But the system is a bit backward so the number of votes mean absolutely nothing fortunately for the tories/labour.

 

[safcfansofaraway]

I'm very pleased to see the end of Tory mismanagement.

I'm a bit of a statistics geek though and do puzzle over some of the results thus far:

Labour increase their vote by just 1.6% and more than double their seats resulting in a landslide

Reform get over 4 million votes for 4 seats - Lib Dems get less than 3.5 million votes for 71 seats

The system is clearly flawed - I get that proportional representation can result in a stalemate but there has to be a better system than this. Dramatically culling the number of constituencies might be a start.

And with only 74% of registered voters casting their vote, a massive majority for Labour with only 24% of registered votes. I don't see proportional representation as viable but there has to be a better way of creating a workable government?

 

[DELETED ACCOUNT 1234]

Think of how many up here vote labour blindly though. 3 of my mates in our group chat have no interest in politics whatsoever and vote labour because their parents do I bet there’s hundreds of thousands up here who have no interest, didn’t read any of the manifestos yet will vote labour every election just as I’d imagine similar communities do the same for the tories.

The big 2 are so uninspiring at the minute it’s no surprise Reform have managed a decent share of the votes. But the system is a bit backward so the number of votes mean absolutely nothing fortunately for the tories/labour.

There's always anecdotes like that and it's probably very true. But I wouldn't consider Reform voters to be any more engaged in politics, in fact there's an argument that many of them are less engaged. Many of them have voted either against the establishment or on a single issue which has been making the front pages of the tabloids.

 

[WorkyTicketFTM]

Just been on there Reform only managed a single seat per one million votes. Four million votes = 4 seats

 

[OldNewtown]

Think of how many up here vote labour blindly though. 3 of my mates in our group chat have no interest in politics whatsoever and vote labour because their parents do I bet there’s hundreds of thousands up here who have no interest, didn’t read any of the manifestos yet will vote labour every election just as I’d imagine similar communities do the same for the tories.

The big 2 are so uninspiring at the minute it’s no surprise Reform have managed a decent share of the votes. But the system is a bit backward so the number of votes mean absolutely nothing fortunately for the tories/labour.

I think that are right about "my dad voted labour therefore I vote labour " though to an extent with the death of more traditional industries this appears to be on the wane.
The scary thing for me is what people then decide to vote.
My comment in a previous post about an admittedly small sample applies to my next comment, but it is concerning how people can be influenced by social media and go off down rabbit holes.
Perhaps this just reflects the new reality in so far as people appear to be doubling down on their view and not listening to alternative views. I don't know.
Final comment on this election, as I have work to do. Yes even us happily retired folk have stuff to do.
I think the election result reflects people voting one party out rather than voting another party in. Strange comment given the landslide for Labour, but that's just my view.
Have a good day everyone.