Any fancies for the Epsom classics?

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Ron

Ron

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Jan 25, 2011
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I can't be having the fav for the Oaks at 5/2 so at the moment, I'm liking Rubies Are Red 10/1, Forest Fairy 14/1, Tamfana 14/1 and Opera Singer 20/1

Rubies Are Red finished faster than anything in the trial in a good time
Tamfana ran a cracker in the 1000 Gns despite a troubled run. May not get the trip but could run into a place
Forest Fairy unbeaten, could be anything. Proven over 12f
Opera Singer no luck in running on debut against Ylang Ylang. Impressive lto at Longchamp and should appreciate the step up in trip
The unraced Vanilla (what a lovely name for a filly) is interesting if she runs, by Camelot out of a Danehill Dancer mare

In the Derby I'm quite keen on Ancient Wisdom 12/1 and Henry Longfellow at 10s

Henry Longfellow unbeaten and surely will be better over 12f
Ancient Wisdom beat today's trial winner easily and will be just as suited by the extra 4f

I can see you all promptly crossing these off your lists <laugh>
 
In the Oaks two horse starting with E interest me - Ejaabiyah and Ezeliya.

The former is a daughter of Frankel who dotted up at Kempton in November but hasn’t been seen since. 40/1.

The latter is a Dubawi filly out of an Aga Khan mare and is trained by Dermot Weld (hasn’t won the Epsom Oaks since 1981). 14/1.

No idea if either will run.
 
Henry Longfellow runs in the French 2000 Guineas today Ron so I’m not sure he’ll turn up at Epsom. But he might.
 
OddDog said:
Henry Longfellow runs in the French 2000 Guineas today Ron so I’m not sure he’ll turn up at Epsom. But he might.
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8th beaten 4l and it was the best part of 2 secs slower than the fillies. Surprised he went for that being by Dubawi out of a Galileo, Oaks winning, mare
 
Ron said:
8th beaten 4l and it was the best part of 2 secs slower than the fillies. Surprised he went for that being by Dubawi out of a Galileo, Oaks winning, mare
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I think you can put a line through the form at Longchamp today it was like the Somme
 
After the English and French Guineas Ballydoyle is empty-handed - that hasn't happened very often in the last 20 years I reckon
 
OddDog said:
After the English and French Guineas Ballydoyle is empty-handed - that hasn't happened very often in the last 20 years I reckon
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EDIT: Showing my ignorance again, that is the 3rd year running that they haven't won any of the first 4 European classics
 
Ron said:
In the Derby I'm quite keen on Ancient Wisdom 12/1 and Henry Longfellow at 10s

...
Ancient Wisdom beat today's trial winner easily and will be just as suited by the extra 4f

I can see you all promptly crossing these off your lists <laugh>
Click to expand...

I might be crossing Ancient Wisdom off my list after the Dante but that would reduce my list to none as he was the only horse on it. I did not expect him to be targeted at the Dante (thought he might go to Lingfield) but defeat would not be the be-all and end-all so long as he runs a satisfactory race against some race fit rivals.

Like you, I think that the step up in trip will bring out more and his two year old form was amongst the best with only the one blip.
 
OddDog said:
In the Oaks two horse starting with E interest me - Ejaabiyah and Ezeliya.

The former is a daughter of Frankel who dotted up at Kempton in November but hasn’t been seen since. 40/1.

The latter is a Dubawi filly out of an Aga Khan mare and is trained by Dermot Weld (hasn’t won the Epsom Oaks since 1981). 14/1.

No idea if either will run.
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Ejaabiyah runs in the 5.15 at Newbury on Saturday - a hot-looking listed contest over 10 furlongs. She would need to win that well to book her Epsom ticket but there is a bit of blue for her on Oddschecker today and she is as low as 20/1 in places (40/1 still available with Bet365).
Ezeliya is entered in the Irish 1000 GNS but I think more likely to head to Epsom after staying on well over 10F last time. She is as low as 8/1 in places now (best price 12/1).
 
Not impressive by Ancient Wisdom. Will have to cross that one off and, with Henry Longfellow possibly missing the race, that will leave me (like QM) with nothing left on my short list
 
OddDog said:
In the Oaks two horse starting with E interest me - Ejaabiyah and Ezeliya.

The former is a daughter of Frankel who dotted up at Kempton in November but hasn’t been seen since. 40/1.

The latter is a Dubawi filly out of an Aga Khan mare and is trained by Dermot Weld (hasn’t won the Epsom Oaks since 1981). 14/1.

No idea if either will run.
Click to expand...
Runs in the Fillies' Trial Stakes at Newbury tomorrow 17.15
 
OddDog said:
Ejaabiyah runs in the 5.15 at Newbury on Saturday - a hot-looking listed contest over 10 furlongs. She would need to win that well to book her Epsom ticket but there is a bit of blue for her on Oddschecker today and she is as low as 20/1 in places (40/1 still available with Bet365).
Ezeliya is entered in the Irish 1000 GNS but I think more likely to head to Epsom after staying on well over 10F last time. She is as low as 8/1 in places now (best price 12/1).
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Not the worst Oaks trial ever from Ejaabiyah today - a little bit outpaced 2 out but stayed on well and looked like an extra 2 furlongs could bring about more improvement. Blue on oddschecker this evening between 20/1-33/1 for the Oaks.

Ezeliya now 4/1 for the Oaks, halved in price without anything really happening with her.
 
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I'm surprised Bellum Justum hasn't gone for a trial but maybe Balding thinks he doesn't need one. He did of course win the Blue Riband Trial in mid-April and won it well, handling the hill and the camber very well.
He's by Sea the Stars out of an Oasis Dream mare. The latter may worry some but we forget that Oasis Dream has sired plenty who stayed further than he was asked to. However the rest of the maternal side is replete with stamina (Sadler's Wells, then High Line, then Sir Gaylord) and an eyecatching 4th dam is Lucayan Princess who was the dam of Luso, Needle Gun, Cloud Castle and especially Warrsan. Bellum Justum has already shown he stays 10f, I don't think 12f will be beyond him.
He started in a Newmarket maiden and returned 3 weeks later to be placed over a mile. He then ran 4th on soft ground at Doncaster behind God's Window but hit back by winning his maiden at Newmarket beating a useful colt in Inisherin.
He may be an interesting outsider.
 
Bustino74 said:
I'm surprised Bellum Justum hasn't gone for a trial but maybe Balding thinks he doesn't need one. He did of course win the Blue Riband Trial in mid-April and won it well, handling the hill and the camber very well.
He's by Sea the Stars out of an Oasis Dream mare. The latter may worry some but we forget that Oasis Dream has sired plenty who stayed further than he was asked to. However the rest of the maternal side is replete with stamina (Sadler's Wells, then High Line, then Sir Gaylord) and an eyecatching 4th dam is Lucayan Princess who was the dam of Luso, Needle Gun, Cloud Castle and especially Warrsan. Bellum Justum has already shown he stays 10f, I don't think 12f will be beyond him.
He started in a Newmarket maiden and returned 3 weeks later to be placed over a mile. He then ran 4th on soft ground at Doncaster behind God's Window but hit back by winning his maiden at Newmarket beating a useful colt in Inisherin.
He may be an interesting outsider.
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God's Window didn't give that form any boost
 
As far as I recall, 12f races for 3yo maidens/novices have been few and far between, which leaves very few opportunities for late developing unraced 2yos, bred to stay, to gain any experience over the distance prior to the Derby/Oaks. So, bar one, I see little/no hope of any potential classic winning dark horses emerging now

What does that leave us with?

OAKS
Well, not a lot. I think I'm stuck with the same ones I started with

DERBY
Gone off Ancient Wisdom after his 6l defeat in the Dante
Still quite keen on Henry Longfellow, if he runs (33/1)
Have now taken a liking to two unbeaten colts in Los Angeles, by Camelot out of a Dansili mare (6/1), and the once raced Voyage, by Golden Horn out of a Galileo mare (33/1), the latter looking a tasty ew wager
 
OddDog said:
Not the worst Oaks trial ever from Ejaabiyah today - a little bit outpaced 2 out but stayed on well and looked like an extra 2 furlongs could bring about more improvement. Blue on oddschecker this evening between 20/1-33/1 for the Oaks.

Ezeliya now 4/1 for the Oaks, halved in price without anything really happening with her.
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Ejaabiyah not entered, we will most likely see her at Royal Ascot where she has entries in the Ribblesdale and Coronation Stakes. Interestingly her Newbury conqueror Diamond Rain currently holds no future entries.

Ezeliya generally 7/2 J2F for the Oaks with Rubies Are Red behind Ylang Ylang. She handled the undulations of Navan without any fuss and was doing all her best work in the last (10th) furlong. I think she holds a massive chance at Epsom.
 
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