Transfer Rumours Transfer Rumours thread

Just looked to see how old Bowen and Watkins are and was surprised to find that, although both have late birthdays, next year they will be 28 and 30 respectively. Not exactly our future.

 

Think Bowen missed his chance of a big move. It needed to happen the summer before last off the back of the very good year. He then had a poor one last year before another decent one this year but with his age, can’t see any of the top top clubs going for him at a price West Ham would be interested in. To them he’s prob worth 70-80m but to a buy prob only worth 30-40 given age.

 

Bowen was linked with us last year, (wasn't everyone), which may have worked given our injuries and also to play alongside Salah. As his replacement, it's a definite no from me. We have some good youngsters coming through in Gordon, Koumas and Danns but they are way off regular first team football just now. Be interesting to see what the new man does with them in terms of development.

 

Not when you take age into consideration, which is what I'm sure mito meant.

 

Of course it still applies when age is taken into account. You don't compare Salah's numbers with those of 4 or 5 years ago and expect a sudden jump to his initial 32 but you look at the overall pattern which is past performance as an indicator of what future performance will be. For Salah you'd expect next season's PL goals to be in the 16, 17, 18 + range. How else do you assess what's likely?

 

I find making a wild guess has proven useful in the past

 

My only argument would be your taking past experience in a Klopp team where next year it will be a Slot team so you can't really make any predicitions. Salah may not suit the new managers style of play at all.

 

So I have a solution and your first reaction will be very negative... But hear me out.

We agree to sell Salah to Manchester City for £200million.

Win for both of us... City get to have one last hurrah bringing "glory" to their owner's state and we get £200million for a player past his peak...

... But, because City are going to be relegated to league two in the summer anyway, we will never have to play against Salah unless we meet them in a league Cup.


Foolproof, no?

 

Well, mito can correct me if I'm wrong, but what I took him to mean is that because Salah got x number of goals in the past doesn't mean you can expect the same from him in the future.

 

Or he may get a lease of life under new manager new tactics.

I think it’s a huge risk to sell when on form your best player who is almost a guarantee for 15 league goals a season.

Bevauae he’s put up such big numbers before we forget that 15-20 goals still out performs pretty much every other wide forward in the league.

 

That could work too. What's your wild guess for next season?

 

Of course. Any number of things could happen. He could be benched for half the season or you could come up with any amount of scenarios that your imagination takes you. My point was in answer to mito saying this "His prior record is largely irrelevant as an indicator of future performance" - which is wrong imo.

 

True he also may break his leg or do an ACL on 1 September its all ifs and buts. I just dont think you can predict or almost guarntee an amount of goals. Slot can easily be in a no win situation sell Salah and we struggle people will ask why did you sell him. If he keeps him and he is as bad as the last 3 months questions will be asked of why didnt you sell him.

 

That's roughly what he said, yes, and I disagree with it.

What would you use as an indicator for future performance?

 

I wonder what VVD plans are now we know Slot is replacing Klopp. He seemed pretty cagey about his future when Klopp first announced he was leaving. Is VVD more likely to stay now that he knows someone tactically similar to Klopp is coming, and it's a compatriot at that.

Or, is his lack of stature going to make him agitated a move. Him staying would help with the continuity of the club and leadership.

 

That's all I meant.

Footballers generally drop off a cliff so the question is where is the cliff.

I think he is very close now personally.

Pace is a huge part of his goals. At least under klopp. Fast counters and shift and shoot type efforts.

He doesn't get in the box for a header like mane used to.

The assists are different though but if a defender can now get back in then that is an issue too.

 

Only time will tell.

They could become a Dutch mafia for all we know.

Gakpo and gravyboat too

 

Several factors. Past performance being just one. Age, fitness, attitude are others - there may be some I've missed.
Past performance includes his recent past as well as his peak years, and gives some indication of a trend in his performance levels. Age and fitness are obviously going to influence him physically, attitude is one of the reasons I was concerned about his recent behaviour. All contribute to his effectiveness.
There's no doubt in my mind he's past his peak physically, he used to be able to beat three or four now it's rare to see him get past one. I saw a distinct evolution to a more team-orientated player earlier this season than the largely self-centred one of his peak years, but really he's been off his game in every respect since his injury.
Perhaps he'll regain some fitness and become more of an asset again, or perhaps he won't - who can tell?
When he was banging in 30 a season he was irreplaceable, if it drops to below 20 then not so much. Though still not too shabby, there will be others who can match it. After a while the law of diminishing returns starts to kick in, given the massive wage (for LFC) that he's on.
As I've said several times, I would sell him only if we have an adequate replacement.

 

We'd still get 6-8 of those goals if Salah wasn't on the pitch because someone else would score the penalty instead.

Plus, the replacement player may well chip in to cover the remaining 8-12 goals too

I'm not hating on Salah, he's been awesome for us, but his figures aren't what they were and they're being boosted with penalties too

It's not the goals or assists that concern me though, it's his clear decline in pace, acceleration and determination to beat a man.

 

Another thing I would say is that despite their recent tiff Klopp and Salah have had a long, mutually beneficial relationship and I think there would be some sentimentality involved. I'd imagine that Slot would have no such baggage and if Mo is struggling he's likely to get increasingly familiar with the bench. Will he be happy with that?
Interesting times.