Well, I don’t personally think any of the top 3 will finish out of the top 4, but there is enough of the season left for it to happen. In their next 6 PL games, Arsenal play City, Brighton, Wolves & Spurs away and Villa (and Luton) at home. It’s not inconceivable that the points advantage they hold over Villa and Spurs could be whittled away to some extent over that period, especially as Villa & Spurs have a big say in that. You can’t pick an arbitrary number of points and say that’s what they need - it doesn’t work like that. We’ve seen 8-10 point differences overturned in 4 games before now. But my general point was that with still more than a quarter of the season to go, it’s too early to call the outcome of anything.
So what the arithmetic deems to be possible has no bearing on what you think will happen. So what do you think will be the minimum pts total that PL 3rd finishes with, and the pts / GD gap to 4th ??
The arithmetic depends on the results. At this stage, it’s purely opinion what those results will be. If I opine that each of the top three are likely to take at least 18 points from the remaining games, then 81 points will clinch 3rd. If I surmise that none of the chasing pack will take more than 23 points, then there is at least a 4 point gap between 3rd and 4th. But this is all conjecture. Sport doesn’t follow the rules of mathematically probability - 100/1 shots win horse races. Not often, but it happens.
Why are you so afraid of actually stating what you think will happen ?? I believe that PL 4th will require 76 pts, and the top 3 will be clear by a min 10 pts / GD of 30+ .
No, I’m not at all. I think City will win the league. The top 3 will remain the top three. Spurs & Villa will contest 4th place but I think 73 points will be enough. Maybe less. Utd will do well to hang on to 6th
Looking at my prediction above, I'm fairly satisfied it is pretty sensible and 'probably' the maximum points all involved will end up with. City 88 Pool 88 Arsenal 85 Spurs 79 Villa 76
I think that you're judging Utd by how they're playing, rather than their results. They've been ****ing awful this season, but they're still in touching distance and winning games. Villa have Europe to contend with and may concentrate on that, understandably. Another trophy for Emery would be an enormous achievement from when he took over.
To finish 4th they will have to do it on pts (their current GD gap to 4th/5th is as bad as from the latter to the top 3) . "Villa have Europe to contend with and may concentrate on that, understandably. Another trophy for Emery would be an enormous achievement from when he took over." I doubt Villa will finish lower than 6th (which means EL - which is the best they can get from winning EL2) . So the calculus for Emery is how hard to push to win EL2 if that threatens a good chance of finishing 4th.
It's a lot for Utd to make up on Villa, I admit, but it's not impossible. They looked awful against us in the 2nd half on the weekend and very, very tired, too. McGinn's absence in the next 3 league games could be crucial. The goal difference issue is definitely worth a point, as you suggest. Villa and Spurs on +18 and +20 respectively, while Man Utd and West Ham are on 0 and -4. Crazy when you're talking about 4th, 5th, 6th and 7th, but it also tells it's own story.
Villa seem to be struggling with two games a week. They are also going to be without McGinn for their next 3 matches and since January their home form has really dipped.
Rodrigues do Nascimento Galeno Porto can’t substitute him because there’s no room on the webpage to put the name of his replacement on
It's the Portuguese naming custom. They're all like that. There's a reason that a bunch of Brazilian footballers are called Fred. Pepe is actually Kepler Laveran de Lima Ferreira, for example.
