Yeah disappointing but away games are never easy. Watford and Sunderland both lost at home and we play the mackems next and Hull go to Preston. West Brom host Coventry.
It felt like that at the end, but we were the better team in the first half, then they came out stronger after the break and we lost our way a. bit. A draw was a fair reflection of that, IMO. Sunderland, Watford, Bristol City and Boro all lost today and the last 3 have virtually dropped out of the race on 44 points. Sunderland are on 47 and we play them CR next.
That's an indication of how bad things were without Sargent, Barnes, Hanley and Sainz and our defensive problems conceding 2 goals per game. In the last 10 games we've won 5, drawn 3 and lost 2. The losses were Leeds away 1-0 and Millwall away 10 games ago. That puts us 6th in the form table over the last 10 games, home and away, having earned 18 points from those 10. Over the last 5 games we're 4th in the form table having won 3 and drawn 2, averaging 2.2 points per game with a goal difference of +6. Sargent and Sainz have made a major difference in spite of the recent loss of Rowe and the defence has improved considerably, conceding just 1 goal per game. The question now is can we continue that form through the final 12 games to secure a playoff place. I think we can, but it won't be easy.
No, just the opposite GE. Those were games Watford and Sunderland were counting on to climb back into the playoff chase, especially against Huddersfield and Swansea. Their chances are now very slender indeed. You're right Robbie. I mistakenly included the cup draw against Bristol City. The points total and form place are the same though. That Millwall game was the last stutter of 2023 before the revival began. I've corrected the original post accordingly.
Surely "the revival" began with the league resumption following the international break? The 8 game run beginning with the home win over QPR was cheese to the chalk of the 8 game run preceding it. Don't forget that Sainz made 4 appearances in that spell of games as well. Just to emphasize the point, you rightly say that our points haul from the last 10 games, in all of which Sargent has played some part, has been 18 from 10, i.e. a rate of 1.8 ppg. The points haul from the 8 preceding games, in which Sargent played no part, was 14 from 8, a rate of 1.75 ppg, a difference of only 0.05 ppg.
It's a fair point, Robbie, but a better comparison would be the previous 10 games which yielded 17 points, though the opposition only included 3 games against top 10 teams from which we gained 2 points, compared to 5 top 10 teams in the latest 10 games from which we gained 10 points (.67 ppg vs 2 ppg). Beating Hull, Coventry and West Brom has put us on the edge of the playoff places. Sargent and Sainz had a real impact on those games and Sargent also scored our equaliser against Southampton.
By "the previous 10 games", do you mean the 8 following the international break plus the last two before the break, i.e. including the home defeat by Blackburn and away win at Cardiff? The reason for taking the home win against QPR as the start point is that the GDR (Great Defensive Reset) took place over the international break, so that particular variable ("before or after the GDR") is controlled for. Unless you allow for the GDR, any comparisons of performance e.g. against top 10 teams, with Sargent in the team v without, will be flawed.
Agreed, these things have to be adjusted for the quality of the opposition. And also it seems odd to include Millwall as a game with Sargent when he played only a few minutes. For me, if we are going to test for with and without Sargent since the international break, let’s split it 9 vs 9 matches (though arguably we could move the So’ton match into the former section as he came on as a sub). That has the advantage that it is covering the same number of games. That gives 14 points from 9 matches where he wasn’t a significant player (1.55ppg) versus 18 points from 9 matches in the last 9 games (2ppg). Also notable the strength of opposition in the second group of nine matches. That’s the difference between autos form and playoffs form, so really very significant.
