Major gut check time for Ipswich now. They're in no form at all, and are suddenly more than a result out of the autos, and we're just in the opening stages of a massive fixture pileup that will test everyone's depth. They could be a small blip in the rear-view mirror in a hurry if they don't turn things around.
Problem is that their depth has been stretched already, and today they began a stretch of 8 matches in 30 days.
I’d be concerned about speaking too soon on that. Our depth in defence and defensive midfield isn’t great. Smallbone and Charles don’t have a patch on Downes in that anchor role. Until Bree returns we are very short at full back. And Bednarek is one yellow from a two match ban when Charles then moves to first reserve at CB. Lots of depth in attacking positions somewhat masks this
Yeah it's between us and Leeds most likely. But Ipswich aren't totally dead yet. All three will likely stutter a bit at some point.
I think we will most likely get another 10 wins from 16, that puts on 94 points. Crazy that, that many points will probably not give you automatic.
Definitely, but even our somewhat-iffy depth compares pretty favourably with the depth of most at this level. I'm not Stephens' biggest fan, but there aren't many with a player of his calibre serving as their 3rd CB. I don't think that it's coincidental that ourselves and Leeds started to stretch our legs at the point in the year where fatigue set in.
Coming into today, I had split our remaining 17 games into one group of 10 and a second group of seven. The latter being comprised of what I considered to be our seven most difficult remaining games. My thinking was that if we could take the maximum 30 points from the first group (which included Huddersfield), that puts us onto 91 points - and in turn puts far less pressure on those other seven games. Quite how many points we would need to take from them is anyone's guess - as you say, even something as high as 94 points may not be enough - but it might not be too many. Obviously football doesn't work like that - as we very nearly saw today. It can't be taken for granted that we will win all of those 10 "lesser" games. But heading into the final-third of the season, I just found it a helpful way to try and breakdown what could be a crazy and stressful time.
I haven’t been taking too much interest in the fixture lists, for us or Leeds and Ipswich, but have had a look this morning and it’s fair to say that we have the toughest run in. I know the table is fluid and you can never legislate for a resurgence in form from a team battling relegation, as seen yesterday with Huddersfield, neither can you legislate for a drop of form from teams chasing the play offs, but it’s going to be tough. In our last 16 games we are scheduled to play 8 teams who are currently in the top 10 and just 4 in the bottom 10. Ipswich face 4 in the top 10 and 8 in the bottom 10. Leeds have 5 in the top 10 and 8 in the bottom 10. On paper Ipswich have a very easy run over the next 9 games, as the highest placed team they are due to face is Bristol City, who are currently 13th. After that they face us and then 5 teams chasing play off places, before ending with Huddersfield. Leeds have 6 of their next 7 against bottom 10 opponents, the odd one out being Leicester. Buckle up for a rough ride ahead.
The reason I am pretty relaxed is I think you can ignore top 10 and bottom 10 in this league. The three relegated teams are a league above. Then there are 3-4 teams who are competitive. I would say anything outside the top 6 should not be beating us.
You worry too much, and I get it, we have been conditioned over many years to no our team will always **** it up. This lot are of a different vintage. Yesterday shows us that. I think we will be fine against most teams and think we will give Leicester hell of a game
I noticed this morning that we play against the 4 teams that beat us in consecutive games again, just in a different order. Be good to overturn those defeats in quick time, especially as we’ve become a much better team than when we last played them.
Going back through seasons, and unless I've missed something, no team to manage 2+ points/game has ever failed to get promoted to the top division. Not just since the Championship became the Championship...since 1981, when the current points system was adopted. There are currently four teams at or above that threshold.
