I can’t help thinking that 4 of the biggest races at the DRF (Arkle, Gold Cup, Champion Hurdle and Dublin Chase) are horribly uncompetitive small field affairs
Turners [Thursday] Djelo Each Way @ 33-1 [Betway] Non Runner No Bet Thought his 2nd at Sandown on Saturday was a good trial for this race
As far as I can see this evening we have 5 odds-on favs for the festival - Constitution Hill (Champion Hurdle), Lossiemouth (Mares Hurdle), El Fabiolo (Champion Chase), Sir Gino (Triumph) and Galopin Des Champs (Gold Cup) - with the last 2 mentioned only a shade of odds-on. Looks like a pretty open festival to me.
Odds on shots last 3 years: 2023 = 3, 2 won. 2022 = 4, 3 won 2021 = 7, 3 won So based on those stats at least one of them won’t win. Not sure which one but did read a negative stat re Lossiemouth having not going past 2 miles. 58 have tried in the Mares and only 1 winner.
Ballyburn (in the Supreme Novices) has joined this list with most bookie chappies after decent support this morn - blue across the board on 'Oddschecker' and now odds-on with 12 bookmakers. Few quotes of Evens available, re Ballyburn, and Betfred the only standout in remaining odds against - 11/10. If using the best price as the marker then Ballyburn not odds-on at the min but looking at the money, right now, he should go odds-on with everyone sooner rather than later, methinks. So it would appear we will have a hotshot in the card commencer.
Couldn‘t touch him at those odds. The McManus owned No Flies On Him runs at Punchestown on Sunday, looked the real deal over Christmas.
A nice win for Nemean Lion in the Kingwell Hurdle as Wincanton yesterday. Colonel Mustard is a decent enough yardstick and NL accounted for him fairly easily giving him 3lbs too. Before yesterday’s race Kerry Lee indicated that she favoured the Stayers over the Champion Hurdle which is hardly surprising given Constitution Hill lining up in the latter. Although NL hasn’t run over 3 his runner up position in the Lanzarote carrying a big weight suggests longer trips are an option. Obviously 3 miles at Cheltenham and twice up the hill represents a stiff 3 miles and there’s a good chance he could miss Cheltenham altogether. However there’s 66/1 NRNB available so I’ve had a bit ew. If he does line up in the Stayers he won’t be that price.
Would they be tempted to run in the Champion Hurdle if it came up testing? 50/1 3 places is tempting for that NRNB too
Agreed - there is going to be some right dross in the Champion Hurdle this year - either that or 4 runners (Constitution Hill, State Man, Not So Sleepy and one of Elliott's).
We are getting into the phase where the Cheltenham buzz and hype really start cranking up. Tomorrow sees the handicap entries revealed, at Kempton on Saturday there's the Adonis, Dovecote and Pendil and over at Chepstow the last Pertemps Qualifier. The last entries (for the Bumper, Cross Country and Foxhunters) are on Feb 27th and then slowly but surely we get into the preview evenings. 3 weeks tomorrow is Champion Hurdle day
Stayers Hurdle Nemean Lion Each Way @ 66-1 (Bet 365) Non Runner No Bet Said last week before his win at the weekend that I think this is a high class hurdler and now could reach his pinnacle when upped in trip
Have to correct myself here - the last Pertemps Qualifier is not at Chepstow on Saturday, it is on Naas on Sunday. That's a new addition to the qualifier roster. More plots than an Agatha Christie novel no doubt. Cleatus Poolaw catches the eye.
