WAR! What is it good for?

To be clear - I'm 100% for compromise in the region - but there will never be peace while Israel continues a program of illegal settlements - and, more importantly, whilst big players like the US continue turning a blind eye to it - whilst that continues there will continue to be casualties on both sides, but obviously, given Israel's military capability (and retaliatory strategies), the vast majority of those will be Palestinian... and civilian.

 

@Treble thread award time...

 

I'm struggling to see what is so surprising.

The Israel Gaza conflict has followed a very specific pattern for decades.

1) Tension rises
2) Inflammatory rhetoric on both sides
3) Conflict breaks out
4) Hamas tries to take hostages
5) Israel bombs Gaza, heavy casualties
6) International pressure grows
7) Hostages are released in exchange for a ceasefire and the release of prisoners.
8) Hamas survives with credibility intact
9) Both sides further radicalised by the overall experience
10) Rinse, wash and repeat

My concern last night when I heard rumours of some of the names who were meant to be on that list was that we were simply defaulting to the status quo and we'll be back at square one in a few years.

As said, I am reassured having studied the list carefully that things are noticeably different. The successful American intervention at the 11th hour which got Qatari support was pretty much unprecedented.

The prisoners being released are a mix of youngsters who shouldn't have been incarcerated in the first place, and low to medium level security concerns. There are no big names in that list. So yes, in the broader scheme of things I will therefore admit that I jumped to a conclusion and that this deal is a net gain for Israel, not Hamas. I panicked, because the tell tale signs of a Shalit mk II. were pipeline and Hamas was certainly pushing massively for this to happen, until Qatar basically told them to **** off and sign.

Had that list contained any significant number of A Listers, I'd still be somewhat apoplectic.

 

I think if you said to me it was an unreasonable exchange, if their had been no retribution for the 7th Oct act, then I would have agreed with you, but for me everything is about what has happened since. We also have to remember how long ago those hostages were kidnapped now, and what condition they will be in, because unless they've been taken to another country, they will be suffering the same hardship as Palestinians. So it does purely from the hostage perspective, give Hamas the upperhand, if you get an exchange of 50 for 300, I'd nod that as a pretty reasonable deal. If I was Hamas you'd never see your hostages again, I'd be in it for the longer game, so maybe it is showing Hamas' fragility and reliasing the hostage value is slowly diminishing due to the harsh conditions of conflict.

 

War sells

 

I tend to agree with your last point.

I think Hamas badly underestimated the scale of the response (moronic, given who sits in the current cabinet) and also the degree of international support.

The events of Oct 7th were just so shocking, so beyond the pale that much of the international community sees them as a watershed.

Hamas badly miscalculated this. As did their Iranian handlers.

 

You could maybe mention some families get their loved ones back.

 

Let's just say I wouldn't want you as a hostage negotiator.

 

I don't think Hamas have badly underestimated anything, the funds are probably still coming in, the question is simple, do you want the hostages alive, every day that passes is another day of suffering for them, another lingering day of how much longer can I stay alive. You get yourself wrapped up into too much whataboutery.

 

Anyway, I think I've left enough points of view there to chew on.

 

I think Hamas underestimated the response from Israel because the major decision makers don't even live in the area and are completely detached from the situation on the ground.

They were in Moscow a few days after this all kicked off on some sort of Eastern victory parade, now their entire base of operations is rubble and 10,000+ of their people are dead.

 

Agreed. Wouldn't have a clue what to do, nor do I have shoulders broad enough to carry the weight of such a negotiation. The thought itself is terrifying.

 

You talk like you think Hamas care about Palestinians, where's your head been these last seven weeks bro.

 

On this fred

 

True.

Also: they and their Iranian handlers use the Palestinians as pawns. So there's that too.

 

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No hostage releases until Friday, Hamas calling the shots, ceasefire comes first.

 

I'm watching a news report on Al Jazeera.

You forget that not everyone is able-bodied.

They're showing the impact on the physically disabled and those with complex needs who can't escape and can't perform the most basic skills. It's disgusting what they're having to go through tbph.

 

It must be absolutely terrible for the families - wondering if your loved ones will be in the 50 - hoping that they are, at least, still alive and can come back before it all kicks off again ... also knowing that Netanyahu appears to view them more as chess pieces in an end game rather than real people ...

 

You think that's bad, imagine being the families of the foreigners who'll be at the back of queue to a certain extent and nobody's got any clout (or impetus) for their release.