Daily Racing Thread Wednesday 22nd. November 2023

Wednesday's Meetings

Warwick
N/H 7 Races 12:25-3:50p.m.
Ffos Las
N/H 7 Races 12:35-4:00p.m.
Hexham
N/H 6 Races 12:45-3:40p.m.
Dundalk
A/W 8 Races 1:45-5:45p.m.
Wolverhampton(E)
A/W 9 Races 4:30-8:30p.m.

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Good Luck

 

5.45 Dundalk-Crystal Pool

To outrun her odds

Each Way..opening odds of 33-1 [5 places]

 

How could you fancy that one, out of curiosity? 0 from 17 at the track and on an absolute abysmal run of form. May well be inspired- and it is Dundalk too, so anything could happen, but to us mere mortals I find any logic for it hard to come by.

 

If it is a fast run race she could well outrun her odds as the only race I can see where she's been involved in a "fast" run race she won it, carrying 9lb more; but that was over 2 years ago. James Ryan (5lb claimer) rides her for only the second time. Down the field in July this year over 2f shorter was the other ride. I think she has had 15 different jockeys, so could be awkward ride and maybe this one could click. Obviously capable of winning given the time of one of her win. Unlikely to have improved but maybe she hasn't been putting her best foot forward

That's about all I can come up with, other than the rest look like a load of donkeys

Hats off to G1 if he's picked one out here

 

Just a hunch as being a mare will be hit and miss, also jockey has won on 3 of his last five rides all at Dundalk

 

Ffos Las
14,15 Kings Keeper 8/1 e/w PP and betfair three places, 15/2 others

 

Well... The old trick, one NR and now only two places.

 

The (14:50) at Ffos Las, a Class-3 Handicap Hurdle over a distance just short of 3m on soft (heavy-in-places) ground, gives the French-bred Balko gelding, Balkardy, a very good chance of a winning run. Conditions will suit him. Isabel Williams (3) on board for the family stable of Evan Williams.

11/4 (BetMGM/BetUK) best price at time of writing.

(Prices from Oddschecker)

 

He would have needed five places.

 

RP "Briefly disputed lead, in touch with leaders after 1f, prominent over 3f out, weakened gradually from over 1f out (op 33/1)"

ATR "disputed lead early, tracked leaders and 5th halfway, 4th approaching straight, ridden and no impression over 1f out, no extra inside final 150 yards"

It was a slowly run race. Did she weaken or did the others have better finishing speed?

 

Ran okay for a 40-1 shot only beaten 5 lengths, suggest a drop in trip on todays evidence will suit her as both wins were over a mile

Tracker

 

12f at Killarney or Gowan Park, preferably good ground I reckon. Clearly can't jump