WAR! What is it good for?

The Israeli regime has a strange take on proportionality - over 10,000 Palestinian kids and women don't need to be part of any future prisoner exchanges now ...

 

Has Kane worked out the value of hostages yet?

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Kane still calculating, I think he signed off on his approval late last night in the knesset and handed it to Bibi.

Meanwhile Fosse was on multiple threads pushing for a fight.

Ceasefire Fosse! CEASE-fckin-FIRE man!

 

https://www.gov.il/he/Departments/DynamicCollectors/is-db?skip=20


Here is the full list of the 300 prisoners Israel is set to release as part of this two phased deal.

I can't find one with an English translation. Will post if I do find it. If you can read Hebrew, enjoy. @Bwood_Ranger maybe you can translate?

Looks like a mix of low to medium level crime. Majority imprisoned for things like throwing stones and arson. But there are a number in there for things like stabbings, illegal possession and use of firearms, attempted murder etc.

Seems to be a relatively equal spread between those who were tried in the contentious Military Court and those who were tried in the Civil Court which is interesting.

By law, Israeli citizens have 24 hours to lodge any grounds to protest the decision to release any particular prisoner. But this is unlikely to hold up any potential agreement as Israel has, unlike in the Shalit deal which rumbled on for months and saw the release of some of the same people who planned and carried out Oct 7th, rightly limited the list to relatively low level crimes as I've said.

 

Nope. Don't think anyone can, that's the painful reality.

I'm still stuck on why the allies didn't give Belgium to Germany at Versailles.

 

No mask here, Treble.

I'll deal with your point about the Palestinian prisoners first. If they were factually, genuinely innocent - I agree, they should be released and unconditionally at that. If they are innocent, Israel deserves nothing in return for their release and therefore shouldn't get anything. I'd expect the same standard to apply for the release of the innocent hostages. This should also be unconditional.

But it is clear that the Palestinians on the list are very much not innocent. I am deeply suspicious of the powers the military courts now have thanks to Netanyahu, so the listings I'm paying closer attention to are those tried in the civil courts which are notoriously left leaning and anti Netanyahu (which is one of the reasons he wants to overhaul the judiciary). I fully trust that if the civil courts find a person guilty of stabbing a policeman, or of blowing up a gas canister at a check point (both middle aged women btw), those people are categorically not innocent.

I'm also fully aware that there are some posters on here to whom literally anything any Palestinian ever does is justified by the "wider context" and QED by definition all Palestinian are noble and innocent even if they raped young girls and burned babies alive. I respect you as being above this totally warped viewpoint.

But let's analyse why prisoner exchanges are so commonplace and why every deal for a ceasefire or pause seems to involve them.

Hamas is waging a two pronged war. One is aimed at bringing about Israel's disappearance. The other is a popularity war with a people who haven't been given a political voice since the 2006 elections. For all the talk of a future Palestinian state. Fatah and Hamas have been jostling for years over who would have de facto governance of that state, but neither has demonstrated the credibility to actually do so. The Palestinian people know this, too.

True, Hamas enjoyed widespread support for many years, but firm indications are that this is shifting. Oct 7th opened the gates of hell on Gaza. As I've said so many times before, Hamas couldn't have picked a worse Israeli government to pull this on.

Countless Palestinians are fed up with them and have opened their eyes to the harsh reality that Israel isn't going anywhere, despite what Iranian sponsored propaganda preaches, and therefore violent resistance is inherently self destructive and can only create more losers than winners.

Hamas therefore - always - needs to demonstrate that it's ideology can deliver a net gain. A ceasefire cannot do this. Entire neighbourhoods have been reduced to rubble. Once supportive fellow Muslim neighbours have distanced themselves from Hamas. Oct 7th was a watershed. It crossed a red line.

So the only net gain Hamas can show is that violent resistance secures the release of fathers, wives, sons, daughters, cousins etc. Some are innocent. Many are not.

This is why the Shalit deal was so stupid. It was a huge PR coup for Hamas and was seen as a net gain by the people of Gaza. Failed Israeli operation and 1027 prisoners released for one hostage. It massively empowered and enabled the ideology of violent resistance.

Which is why I feel that simplifying this to a binary 'if Israel stops bombing Hamas will release all the hostages' just isn't correct and misses the layers of subtlety at play here. Hamas doesn't just want a ceasefire. It wants prisoners released or it loses the PR battle on the streets at the same time as losing the military battle. And it will keep those hostages to use as leverage for further PR net gains.

Which is why, as painful and harsh as it is, I would have been much happier had Israel point blank refused to include that net gain in the deal and just turned around and said publicly: look, you're on your arses here. Give us 50 hostages and we'll stop battering you for four days. You get nothing more, nor are you in a position to demand more.

 

Everyone knows my views about what happened on the 7th Oct, but there are still some unaswered questions...

How were Hamas able to carry out such a large scale attack and intelligience not know it was going to happen, whether you want to look at the Israeli authorities, the Americans or even the British, we are in this situation because they all failed to protect the citizens of Israel.

I said early in this conflict that the powers that be are not interested in the hostages, they are more hell bent on revenge, so much so it's as if Israel are trying to wipe Gaza off the map.

Now I've defended Israel throughout all this, but I will not entertain bullshitte, you are in no position to negotiate on whatever your demands might be, if you wanted to negotiate on one for one basis with the hostages, they should have thought of that before sending thousands, yes thousands of Palestinians to their grave.

Israel have ran amok with their aims, and I've never blamed them (to a degree) even if it's meant very uncomfortable reading. I don't personally care if they want 300 people released or even 1,000, it's too late for reasoning on what's fair, give them their 300, you get 50 lives back, that's the deal on the table, you either accept or sign their death warrants, that's the choices I'm afraid whether you like it or not.

Israel is in no position to barter in imho, that's life bro, that's reality, however, uncomfortable or angry it may make some feel - maybe the lesson to take away from this is learn to protect your citizens better, and you need look no further for blame than the modern day intelligence services.

 

This is just a temporary ceasefire is it not?

 

as I understand it mate, so Israel could go and wipe out 300 people to compensate on CK's terms at a later date.

 

proof or it’s just propaganda init

anyway what happened to the babies that had heads cut off, are people now not referencing that because it didn’t happen

 

It was Israel’s 9/11 inside job they knew it was happening and they funded and allowed it to take place

jobs a good un

 

Failing to see how this isn't a win for Israel tbh.

They have to release a few hundred petty criminals in return for all their hostages and get to continue their campaign afterwards

 

Exactly what I thought tbph.

 

don't get this analogy as the Germans had nothing the Allies wanted to bargain with while Hamas has the remaining hostages that the people of Israel definitely want safe and home .

 

There's a lot to cover/unpick there CK but I'll try and keep it short.

Correct me if I'm wrong but the Palestinians who have been released are 267 boys aged between 14-18, a girl aged 15, and 32 women aged 18-59. Most are remanded in custody while awaiting trial on charges that range from stone-throwing to attempted murder. So atm they are innocent. How many of those are on administrative detention (which is basically, indefinite imprisonment without trial, torture and some dying)? And those that might ever face a trial, will it be a junior military court, which is basically the same as a military court, with the same personnel, just branded as junior?

Look at who Hamas has asked to be released? I bet most are from the West Bank. You've said they've chosen these as some sort of PR stunt to curry favour with Palestinians but that's your take on it and a personal view. The fact is they're not exactly hardened criminals or senior military players by any stretch.

You've written a lot about Hamas, and that Palestinians are opening their eyes to the harsh reality that Israel is going nowhere and that violent resistance is only resulting in pain for them. This may well be true. Let's say it is true, you're giving one side of the coin without really getting into the mind of a Palestinian. This isn't a choice between Hamas and sunny uplands. The alternative for them remains a slow and painful existential end. Don't underestimate the deep pain and resentment most in Gaza, many of those who are now 3rd or 4th generation still feel about the Nakba. It's ingrained in them.

So if you're a Palestinians, you're beaten down either way. You don't see freedom, you see Hamas and conflict, or you see indefinite blockade, you see poverty, you see indignity, humiliation, you see Palestinian homes being demolished in East Jerusalem and being handed over to Israelis, you see your farmland being destroyed and huge areas of the West Bank being stolen and handed over to hundreds of thousands of Jewish settlers. Any freedom, independence, any nation state, is built on land, and it's the land which is literally being taken from them.

That's the other side of the coin.

If you're a Palestinian, you're not thinking, if we go down the peaceful route Israel will suddenly grow a conscience and give us our independence when they've been watching them daily steal what little they have for decades, LET ALONE give us back the land they've stolen.

Anyway that's by the by, lets get back to the hostages and this conflict. I appreciate your point about the politics and ramifications of this deal but mate there are Israeli families suffering here. They are also someone's sons, daughters, wives, mothers. With the greatest respect, it's easy for you to talk about a tougher approach, but the Israeli government was/is under pressure to get the hostages back.

Every day for almost 7 weeks we've heard the same narrative, that this barbaric assault on Gaza is to eradicate Hamas and return the hostages. Well, whether they're on their arses or not, we know they're not going to eradicate Hamas. At the end of all this (whenever it ends) they'll just pop open the hatch and claim victory, simply by the fact they're still there. And as far as the hostages are concerned, in those 7 weeks the IDF have managed to free the sum total of 2, the same number as were released by Hamas in the first week ffs. Instead, they've killed more than 60 (a quarter of them ffs). Your approach has not worked and is not going to work. All it's done, and is doing, is turn the world against Israel. It's coming across as a tyrant. Have you ever listened to the way every single Israeli official comes across in TV interviews? Callous, deceitful and filled with death and destruction. You carry this on and the place will burn, tens of thousands more will die, and that is all. It's madness.

I am sure that every single Israeli hostage will be released, but it won't be through bombing Gaza (that'll only kill a few more). They'll be released through negotiations. OK, you won't like that because it will likely mean disproportionately more Palestinians being freed, but in the grand scheme of things that ONLY matters IF there's no long-term solution when this is over. If we return to the status quo as far as Israelis and Palestinians are concerned then yeh, sure, you have a point. BUT if the end game is to find a long-term peaceful solution, with a two-state solution, and strong influential third-party players to make it happen, then what you're angry about becomes irrelevant and means very little.

I told you I'd keep it short

TLDR @brb ?

 

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I'm somewhat surprised by CK's thoughts in regards the hostages and the deal being made. So much so it crossed my mind whether the guys is some sort of wum.

 

I've calmed down a lot since I took a proper look at list of who is being released. I posted a link to it above but it's in Hebrew so you'll just have to take my word for it that I found it reassuring.

My fear, unrealised, was that a number of high level prisoners - what we call A list terrorists - were going to be released along with the relatively low level criminals and juveniles.

Hamas was definitely pressing hard for this because, as I said above and despite Treble's lengthy protestations, Hamas does have a PR campaign it is losing and the release of high profile leaders and commanders is invariably hailed as a major coup a la the Shalit deal that I keep referencing but everyone keeps ignoring.

There is every indication that there was a timely intervention by the Biden administration to get those A list names off the list. Netanyahu alluded to this intervention in his comments to the Israeli public.

 

He's not a wum, but he's been triggered by what he thinks is Israel being shafted, much the same way someone like Fosse might be if it was the other way around, which is disappointing because the first sign of Israel having to compromise and he doesn't like it.