VIP THURSDAY 1.40 NEWCASTLE - BAY OF NAPLES - 8/1 - 3 paid - 1 point EW Placed in nearly 40% of races, holding form very well of late. Was a length behind the winner when 3rd at Southwell in September running off the same mark of 60 that he runs from today. The difference maker today could be the 7lb claim that Mrs Carter brings to the race that actually puts the horse 2lbs under last winning mark. Recent form reads 252133. 2.50 NEWCASTLE - FRANBERRI 6/4 - 1 point win. Simply put, there will not be many better opportunities for FRANBERRI to get off the mark for the Varian team. This Frankel filly came with a hefty price tag. They tried her at class 4 for debut, she came 2nd but she failed to improve LTO when only 3rd, she didn’t pick up at all that day and was eased down when obviously keeping on towards the end of the race. Returns to the all weather today and Varians strike rate here is excellent, 25% from nearly 200 runners and jockey Jack Mitchell also performs well at Newcastle boasting a 20% strike rate of his own. 5.45 NEWCASTLE - STALLONE 8/1 - 1 point EW - 4 paid We have had plenty of success with STALLONE including a 16/1 win and also a win here at Newcastle. The handicapper has seen him well held of late and i’ve avoided tipping him but he’s now back at here only 1lb higher than his last win, showed signs of encouragement in his previous run and he’s a C&D winner here at Newcastle. Should be competitive at least.
VIP SUNDAY Plenty of breeders winners last night 5 wins and a few decent places. UK dominated proceedings… GOLF FINAL round today and fingers crossed we can land a winner… few places look guaranteed but we have KUCHAR and SUH with genuine chances, KUCHAR starts top of the leaderboard for the final round… Back to UK racing, again you just need to look at the results across the board to see how difficult it is at the moment. We will do our best and try get back to winning ways. Quite a lot of racing today so we will start with CARLISLE and I’ll have more out before 12.30 for the other meetings. 1.20 CARLISLE - BRANDY MCQUEEN - 9/2 - 1 point win Fav might be a tough nut to crack but BRANDY MCQUEEN arrives here off the back of a noteworthy performance on seasonal debut beating rivals by 20 lengths in these conditions. Looks the value to take a chance on against this short price favourite. 2.30 CARLISLE - THUNDER ROCK 7/4 - 1 point win Best race of the day by far at Carlisle and with THUNDER ROCK stepping down in class today for this listed race, he rates the one to beat. Lots to like about this horse and potentially a very good season ahead. 3.05 CARLISLE - CHEDDLETON 11/2 & THE KING OF MAY 12/1 - 0.5 EW Wins - 4 paid. Two trackers for this race, small EWS for both. THE KING OF MAY went a close 4th LTO and any improvement on that run should see the horse go close again today. CHEDDLETON holds his form well but comes back from a 10 month break, last seen in December he was just touched off by Maylstic at Wetherby in soft conditions. Again small bets as most of my trackers aren’t even finishing the races at the moment - let alone winning. Irish racing back today anyone fancies a bet in Ireland follow the Irish line here cheers - https://t.me/ kufFTxJNhc03Y2Jk
VIP MONDAY 2.50 HEREFORD - HICONIC 12/1 - 1 point EW I usually take Mondays off and don’t have a bet but I’ve had a small go today on HICONIC. I cannot work out why he’s 12/1 today dropping down in class. Seems well overpriced with 4 places on offer so I’ve had a small go. GOLF: Golf results 4 places for a small profit but bloody hell how unlucky can we be. KUCHAR blew a SIX shot lead he was 1/20. He then goes 1/5 on final day two shots up and blows it to finish second. Unbelievable TBH and we are just denied a 33/1 winner. Sam Ryder place 50/1 ✅ Justin Such places 28/1✅ Andrew Putnam places 35/1✅ Matt Kuchar places 33/1✅ I will have a bet on the MELBOURNE CUP (races early morning over in Australia) but the meet and full day will be covered by ray in the worldwide group here - https://m.me/106148715601891 I’ll stick my selection up later. Cheers all Nate
VIP TUESDAY Anyone on Melbourne cup winner please send slips WARWICK and CHELMSFORD will be posted before 12pm. Two decent races at Lingfield today, both listed contest with deep fields, 4 places are paid in both and a short price single in the first race that should improve to win. 11.37 - LINGFIELD - HERSILLIA 7/4 - 1 point win We have not been having much luck betting on Jim Crowley lately but he’s in class 6 company today with HERSILLA who showed plenty of promise in defeat at FFOS LAS under Kevin Stott. Short price 7/4 but it reflects chance as most of these in the line up are exposed types on long losing streaks. HERSILLIA can finally break maiden here, after all she was a horse tried at class 2 in her early runs so must have shown some promise at some point. 1.12 - LINGFIELD - NIGIRI - 9/1 - 1 point EW After watching NIGIRIS last race back today there can’t be many excuses for the horse, she was out battled on the day and dropped into 7th place after front running and going off favourite. It was a blanket finish and she went off 5/2 favourite for that race so 9/1 today looks big value now back up in trip where she has previously won. I’m happy to take this 9/1 value over tracker horse AL AGALIA who won for us last time out. 1.47 - LINGFIELD - FLASH BARDOT 14/1 - 1 point EW Others might make more appeal on paper, Frankel Filly DIVINE JEWEL is the one to best here in my opinion but at 5/1 is short for such a competitive race. I’ve taken the 14/1 on FLASH BARDOT. This horse has done nothing at this level in comparison to some of the rest in the line up but is definitely unexposed and a big price to follow up increasingly impressive wins. She beat SHAGPYLE (pyledrivers sibling) when eased down at Newbury, but the most impressive effort came on heavy ground at Catterick a fortnight ago where she demolished in form VALLEY OF FLOWERS and DARK JEDI by nearly 7 lengths. She might have even more to offer but this is a big step up in class from 4 to 1 today.
VIP NEWBURY & CHELTENHAM FESTIVAL ANTE POST First things first guys ALLAHO is back today he’s going off at 4/9 which I think is actually good value for ALLAHO in the 2.50 Clonmel. Any long term members know my thoughts on this horse and it was due to be my festival NAP last year. IF he’s back to best he destroys them today and we get the 6/1 slashed to 2/1 for the Ryan Air Chase. If you fancy ALLAHO for Cheltenham take the price NOW before this afternoons race. CHELTENHAM ANTE POST - 2 point WIN - ALLAHO - 6/1 RYAN AIR CHASE Irish channel is here guys - https://t.me/ kufFTxJNhc03Y2Jk VIP NEWBURY 12.05 - CASTEL GANDOLFO - 8/1 - 1 point EW - 4 paid sky I can never get away from this horse when the price is right and 9/1 gives us value to try him again/ Form over the past year reads 24244452152324… most of these solid efforts are coming in 10+ runner handicaps and most recently the 4th place came at Cheltenham. He will need to be better than he was last week to win as he’s 6lbs above his last winning mark. The O Brien team are in good form and claimer Harrison is back on board. Another one that looks overpriced and likely to run a big race is WHIZZ KID at 9/1. The horse should strip fitter after last months run, he won the race and has put up 5lbs for that effort but he will stay competitive here I think. 1.50 - BREAK MY SOUL - 5/4 - 1 point win Meant to be very good this horse and Henderson and team seem quite excited by it. Small bet as some proper duff runs from these short price favs of late. SEE YOU IN MY DREAMS looks the obvious danger and arrives with a bit to prove after a let down effort in April at Aintree. Forecast looks likely but BREAK MY SOUL should be one to follow through to the festival… 3.35 - GENTLEMANS RELISH 9/2 - 1 point win Another Henderson horse from the tracker this should be his last bumper run before going hurdling, he’s a big strong horse that will benefit from Newburys galloping track. Henderson has had this one working away and looks a good price here at 9/2 to take on the favourite. 4.10 RYANS ROCKET - 9/2 - 1 point EW win - 4 paid The Nicholls team have paid a hefty number for HISTRONIC and he is the one they will all need to beat here. I rarely tip each way if not over 5/1 but with 4 places paid here with sky, it makes sense to go EW for safety in a competitive race. That’s what I’ve done but you can just do the win if you like. RYANS ROCKET is another I’m tracking for the Fergal O Brien team.
VIP EXETER 1.45 - ASTA LA PASTA 9/4 - 1 point win - Saver MIDNIGHT SOLIDER 18/1 - 3 places paid 0.5 EW Diamond Ri looks to go off as favourite, he’s already 4/5 but he’s not been seen since March so it makes more sense to stick with the Skeletons who are in form and race fit. ASTA LA PASTA won last month in a class 4. Diamond Ri’s win was a class 5 and this is both horses first attempts at class 3 today (both look more than capable but ASTA must carry 6lbs more) MIDNIGHT SOLIDER stands out at such a huge price. He finished second to LOOKAWAY when last seen in May. He was smashed by 30+ lengths but this is easily forgiven considering that LOOKAWAY has just gone on to take the Novice hurdle Grade 2 at Cheltenham two weeks ago. MIDNIGHT SOLIDER had a decent win before this at Footwell, he has the benefit of a 5lb claim from Beau Morgan and could be the one to pick up any pieces if anything at the top of the market are unfit today. 4.00 - IBERIO - 6/1 - 4 places paid - 1 point EW Placed in 60% of races, won well previously on soft ground and 4 places on offer here for IBERIO. Looked decent when running on chase debut here at the end of last month and should improve for that experience.
VIP SATURDAY Not doing too many today as not in great form to say the least. Hopefully can make a profit with these today. I’ve asked the lads for a few tips today so I will post them before 12 if anything comes across. 2.05 NEWCASTLE - SENSE OF DUTY 11/8 - 1 point win 2.10 AINTREE - MASTER CHEWY 7/4 - 1 point win SENSE OF DUTY is lightly raced due to a few injuries but he’s already proven at this level with Group3 and listed wins under his belt. Rates the one they need to beat here. This is a big drop in class for the horse last seeen in the Champions Stakes Group 1 at Ascot. MASTER CHEWY is up 10lbs today after an impressive chasing debut. Looks like he had plenty more in the tank and the 10lbs, although harsh probably will not be enough to stop him today as he looks to win again with a quick turnaround. LONGSHOTS/TRACKERS 2.25 WINCANTON - THE BIG BREAKAWAY 7/1 & ASHTOWN LAD 12/1 - 1 point EW - 4 paid 3.45 NEWCASTLE - LOCAL DYNASTY 3/1 - 1 point EW 2.45 AINTREE - COOPERS CROSS 7/1 - 1 point EW - 4 paid ASHTOWN LAD tends to go well when fresh so might be worth chancing him at 12/1 over the marker principles. Needs to bounce back after a disappointing effort when favourite at Aintree over the summer. THE BIG BREAKAWAY fell in the national but he’s a very capable horse and the yard is in good form heading into this race. All eyes will be on FRODON who is back as an 11 year old, let’s hope he runs well and gets back safely. COOPERS CROSS looked to be travelling well in the Topham class 1 handicap here at Aintree last April before a bad fall, he recovered well to place 2nd in the Scottish National only a week later. Won on seasonal bow last year at Carlisle, looks worth a small EW today. TOTAL POINTS SUGGESTED - 6
