Sunday's Meetings York Flat 7 Races 1:40-4:55p.m. Curragh Flat 8 Races 1:50-5:45p.m. Fontwell N/H 6 Races 2:00-4:43p.m. Racecards At The Races Sporting Life Racing Post Good Luck
Today may be a good day to be a layer at The Curragh with a few short priced favourites that are not as cast iron as they look or simply not worth the risk for paltry reward. I do not see Highfield Princess as any sort of banker in the Flying Five (2:55). Anyone going to the Malton Open Day to see her had best hope that they have Racing TV on in the stableyard as Ed Chamberlain stitched ITV viewers up yesterday telling them they could see her. On the racecourse she faces old foe Bradsell and four time course winner Art Power in a race where there are a lot of front runners so it may be a suicidal pace. I am not convinced that Ylang Ylang will be allowed to have it all her own way in the Moyglare Stakes (3:25) with Frankie an interesting booking on Porta Fortuna and the once-raced Red Viburnum clearly very well regarded by her astute trainer coming in as a maiden. Whilst I expect City Of Troy to win the National Stakes (4:00) his price is entirely hype considering that from a form perspective Bucanero Fuerte achieved just as much last time out but represents a smaller operation. Similarly Kyprios ought to win the Irish St Leger (4:35) against four rivals but maybe one of them will try a tactical change to try and undo him. There is a big pot for the Super Auction Sale Stakes (5:10) and Richard Fahey is very confident about his odds on favourite Native American, an easy winner of his only start, but this might get tactical and he has to give weight away all round. Good luck to anyone putting any combination of these hotpots in their bets...
From a betting perspective, Arc Trails day at Longchamp looks a bit of a damp squib. The going report at Longchamp gives a penetrometer reading of 3.4 and a going stick reading of 7.7 that translates to roughly the Good side of Good to Soft in our terms. Just five go to post for the Prix Foy (1:33 UK time) and from a form perspective it looks like a match between last year’s winner, the now six year old gelding Iresine (winner of the Prix Ganay when last seen) and Andre Fabre’s Place Du Carrousel, winner of the Prix Gontaut-Biron last time out. Since the former is ineligible for the Arc, perhaps Fabre has sent his filly here rather than the Prix Vermeille with something other than the Arc in mind as she has never run beyond ten furlongs previously and she would be the second top rated in the Group 1 race. Is this a fact finding mission? If she stays then they take up her Arc entry, for which she is currently 50/1. Eight are lined up for the Prix Niel (3:25 UK time) and Feed The Flame is long odds on with the British bookies to add to his course and distance Grand Prix de Paris victory. Poulains winner Marhaba Ya Sanafi (Arc 50/1) is clearly the best of his rivals on form and did finish a place ahead of him in the Prix Du Jockey Club but he was abysmal in the Prix Jacques le Marois last time and the mile and a half looks a big ask. I have to conclude that Aidan O’Brien’s Greenland is in the field to gauge how good the opposition are as he contested the Prix Guillaume d’Ornano won by Ace Impact last time (beaten about three lengths) and won a Group 3 in the spring. German raider Fantastic Moon is 33/1 for the Arc and it would be folly to ignore the Deutsches Derby winner given the recent record of German visitors at Longchamp. The feature Prix Vermeille (2:50 UK time) sees eight fillies and mares chasing a €378k first prize. Andre Fabre is represented by Pensee Du Jour (Arc 100/1), who won her first three starts but ran like a drain when fancied in the Prix de Diane; and failed to provide any other grounds for optimism when fourth of the five behind Jannah Rose in the Group 2 Prix de la Nonette. Rue Boissonade has been given a break since winning the Group 2 Prix de Malleret over course and distance in July but that really does not look good enough as that was a Group 2 in name only. Crown Princesse (Arc 100/1) was a close third to Jannah Rose in the Prix Saint-Alary but was well behind Warm Heart in the Ribblesdale when last seen and is probably here to get rid of race rustiness with the Arc or something else in mind. Melo Melo is the only French older filly in the line up and she won the Group 2 Prix de Pomone last time and has to find a bit of improvement to challenge the principle contenders although clearly a place in a Group 1 would increase her paddock value. William Haggas is represented by Sea Silk Road but she is also probably looking for a place in this as she was well beaten by Warm Heart in the Yorkshire Oaks and is clearly not a Group 1 filly. I find it strange that Warm Heart is lining up today as she showed a clear preference for quicker ground at York and Ascot, so I am concluding that they put her fifth place in the Irish Oaks down to how the race was run rather than the soft going (plus it is not that soft today). I am perplexed to see Blue Rose Cen (Arc 20/1) as a short price favourite given that the Prix de Diane winner steps up two furlongs here and was last seen at Goodwood finishing fourth in the Nassau with Joseph O’Brien’s ABOVE THE CURVE (Arc 100/1) ahead of her having made the running. She followed that up with a third place in the Prix Jean Romanet so I am taking a chance here on how Christophe Soumillon decides to ride her (or what instruction he is given by Joseph). If it turns into a typical French sprint in the straight then Christophe Head’s Pouliches winner should prevail. Whatever happens in today’s three races, I can see quite a few disappearing from the Arc betting. If Feed The Flame fluffs his lines, Ace Impact will harden as the favourite so is it time to wade in?
Won't desert Bradsell in the Group-1 Flying Five Stakes at the Curragh, on good/good-to-firm ground. (14:55). Ran an excellent race 18-days ago at York in the Nunthorpe Stakes. Hollie Doyle rides for the Archie Watson stable. 7/2 (PP/BetWay) best price at time of writing.
I am not sure that I should take much satisfaction about being right about the short-priced favourites on The Curragh card. With City Of Troy a non-runner, Minding’s first foal won the National Stakes but otherwise punters got stuffed. Although I picked wrong in the Prix Vermeille, the other Longchamp results largely threw a spanner in the works as far as the Arc betting was concerned. I think there is no chance of Warm Heart being added to the Arc field but a lot of bubbles were burst.
