Match Day Thread Premier League, Cups & Euro Watch

Man United have been drawn at home in domestic cup competitions ELEVEN times in a row!

The odds of this happening were 2,048/1

 

There’s also a 1 in 2048 chance of them being drawn at home 10 times then away on the 11th.

 

Yes and no.

All thats been done here is assuming the changes of a home draw is 50/50 then its 0.5 to the power to 10 which is 1 in 1024

the chances of man utd getting 11 in a row today is 50/50. this is because these are independent events that "should not" depend on the out come of the prior ones.


In actual fact the odds of coming out as one of the home teams in a "fair draw" is probably not 50/50. Its a sliding scale of odds as each ball is drawn.

Utd had a 1/32 shot at the first home tie as did every other team. they then had a 1/31 shot at being the away team in that tie.

and so forth and so on, as you go down to the end of the draw should utd be in those last two teams then that have a 50% shot at being drawn first.

how to calculate that now would be interesting.

 

There is a 50/50 chance at the start of each draw unless you’re someone that thinks is a conspiracy etc.

as you say it’s all independent so each draw is 50/50 so a 50% chance that they get 12 in a row next draw as well

 

I wonder how to calculate it. thats all. it sounds perfectly reasonable that 50% of the teams have a home draw in any draw but for 1 team out of 32 to get that home draw is the question i have.

its just curiosity and avoiding work

 

50% for any particular team too, 16 will be first, 16 will be second

 

It’s fun to keep bringing it up and shouting warm balls but it’s not that uncommon. It’s why the martingale system in roulette is accepted by the house (bet red, lose. Double your bet on red, lose, double that bet again etc until you win).

It’ll go 6 or 7 times in a row more often than you think and you’ll bankrupt yourself

 

yes but any 16 not one specific team out of 32.

thats what i am curious about seeing calculated.

Its the odds of a specific favourable outcome (man utd get any one of 16 home ties out of 32 draws)/ the total number of possible outcomes.


C(n, k) = n! / (k!(n - k)!)
n = 32 (total number of games) and k = 16 (number of games where man utd is the home team).

C(32, 16) = 32! / (16!(32 - 16)!)

= 601,080,390 this means theres 601 million ways the 32 teams can be drawn out to have 16 of them in the home slot.



At the outset of the draw any one specific team would have a 1/16 shot of a home tie and the longer the draw goes on the better your "chances" become as the numbers go down as in theory your odds for the draw improve?

In other words the odds keep on changing with each ball drawn.

Its a complete pointless exercise anyway as well all know utd are cheats and have the warm ball.

 

It all boils down to 50% mate

chance has no memory

 

not until the final tie it doesnt.

for each tie being drawn you've a different odds.

Match one of 16 you've a 1/32 chance of being the first team drawn. and so on.

 

never heard of such a system

 

So LASK, Union SG and Toulouse. You’d expect to top that group. France, Austria, Belgium nice close by away games so can’t ask for much more. Toulouse we’re best ranked pot 4 team but even so should expect comfortable qualification using a mixture of players

 

lovely draw.

lovely trips for fans.

lovely group for development of squad.

 

Pretty much the best draw we could've hoped for travelwise

 

of course, but you wernt talking about when said team is drawn, you are just talking about odds of homes vs away - which is 50/50 every time you start a new fixture draw

 

Well I was talking about overall just out of curiosity. it seems at the outset of a 32 team draw you've a 1/16 change of a home draw and after each tie is fixed this increases.

it's just shooting the breeze.

 

Obviously bent.

 

clearly.

we must have paid a good amount for this.

 

That, and the money we paid for them to **** on Newkie in the CL. We need to sell Mo.