The 2023 Prix de l'Arc de Triomphe

No need to apologise Swanny. I just wondered where you were coming from. No worries, as our old friend Charlie (Cyclonic) would say

 

I'd imagine SMS is gutted. Some horses are just unlucky.

I personally think this year's Derby is behind last year's.
I do worry about today's jockeyship. Too many horses don't seem to stay on a straight line. I can't imagine that Moore or Marquand (similarly top jockeys of yesteryear) would have had Westover darting about all over the place as he did (and I like Hornby). It lost him the race.

Good luck to Hukum. I had him in my 6 to follow in 2020, and he's been a good honest horse throughout his career. It was a very good race but I do worry about the quality of today's racehorses. Is this really the best of the best?

 

With Auguste Rodin and Emily Upjohn strung out like washing in a force ten gale, you have to question where Flat Racing is going.
As for Crowley’s 20 days ban and 10 grand fine, it’s just sickening to penalise a jockey to that extent for doing his best.

 

119 horses have been given the Timeform rating of outstanding since 1942 (that's 80 years). So an average of nearly 1.5 horses per year. Since 2000 however, the figure is only 14, an average of less than 0.65 per year. That is a huge difference when one considers; that also the first 4 years ('42-'45) can basically be written off as there was hardly any racing in Europe; that the figures now include American (even dirt!) horses that have only recently been assessed; and that a high proportion of the 19 were American horses (5, I make it).
My own view is that it correlates with the overuse of stallions and hence the narrowing and weakening of the breed. I also question whether the overbloated pattern is harming the sport through stunting competition.

A lot of people will say that everyone is looking at the past with rose tinted spectacles. They're wrong. In fact I think some ratings recently have been over-egged.

 

A week after an unsatisfactory King George and this week’s Not So Glorious Goodwood, the Arc market looks a bit of a mess.

Anyone holding a ticket for Auguste Rodin only has a fifty per cent chance of getting a run for their money if the horse gets to post. In four races so far this season it has run like a drain twice, won what now looks like an ordinary Derby and collected a mediocre renewal of the Irish Derby in a workmanlike fashion. I wonder what price it is for the Triumph Hurdle.

The Gosden fillies now all have something to prove to justify their place in the line-up. Emily Upjohn fluffed her lines yet again at Ascot and I have no idea why Frankie sat at the back on Free Wind at Goodwood as nothing had been winning from behind all week and she was never going to pick up the leader.

We can reasonably expect to see Hukum at Longchamp, probably going straight there, and the King George runner-up Westover will be going in the same direction.

After her defeat in the Nassau Stakes, where she had every chance once a gap opened up between the front two but never went through, I do not expect to see Blue Rose Cen lining up on the first Sunday in October unless it is in the Prix de l’Opéra. Whilst the winner is clearly progressive, I think that she will be in that same ten furlong race unless she excels in the Yorkshire Oaks.

We really only got St Leger pointers at best out of the Gordon Stakes and it would be great to see a royal runner with a serious chance on Town Moor in September but it did not look an outstanding renewal and I think there is a reasonable chance that Desert Hero will next be seen at York.

Looking at the Arc ante post market, a couple of firms still have the mug’s bet Equinox as second favourite but if you really have fallen out with your money, there is Paddington available at 12/1, shorter than forgotten horse Desert Crown trading at 16/1. Only the two French three year olds represent the Classic generation in the first half dozen in the betting. Reportedly Ace Impact is being targeted at the Arc after a mid-season break and stablemate Vadeni will next be seen in the ten furlong Prix Gontaut-Biron at Deauville next Sunday on the Jacques le Marois card.

 

Yes, what at one time looked like it might be a very good Arc line up, has fallen apart. With so many of the Arc declarations locking horns earlier, it was always likely that something may emerge and many hopes dashed and the temptation is now to look at those not involved in those clashes (KG in particular). Ace Impact is still looking like the worthy fav but is that because he hasn't had the chance to fluff his lines. Would he have skated home in the KG? Will Desert Crown make it to the Arc without the ""not ideal preparation" tag. Is Vadeni still on course to go one better than last year? Will Francesco Clemente ever make it to an Arc and eventually fulfil his potential? Will Hukum back up his KG run. Will Westover progress sufficiently to reverse the KG placings?

I thought the Arc would be easy but it's a bit more complicated than that

 

I think that reference to unsatisfactory was probably reflecting the under performance of some of the fancied horses Oddy. It may well be that the strong early pace sapped the power out of some legs which is why they finished strung out

I don't know what to make of Auguste Rodin. Maybe my prediction about him being the biggest hype horse of the year was accurate after all, but I can't understand how he could possibly have been beaten that far unless he suffered some sort of injury (haven't heard what the excuse was, other than the ground but can't accept that given his performances). Pyledriver, supposed to be better than ever, Emily Upjohn, Luxembourg, did they all run up to their ability? They can't have done. If they did then it's possible that Hukum is a World beater. No doubt he is very good and if this was a true reflection of their respective abilities, it certainly makes Equinox look a beast. I wonder when he runs again

Don't forget Westover has been beaten by Emily Upjohn, Pyledriver, Desert Crown and Alpinista in completely different races. Something don't sit right

 

I originally described the King George was unsatisfactory because it cannot be properly assessed on the merits of the form.

Hukum and Westover both put up noteworthy performances fighting out the finish but the first of the Classic generation home, King Of Steel, did not settle and was really only staying on past beaten horses to be more than four lengths third. Luxembourg raced prominently but was completely spent in the finishing straight, a remark that could also be applied to fifth home Pyledriver. It was a country mile back to Bolshoi Ballet, who ran like his 125/1 odds. Emily Upjohn never made any sort of a challenge and the initial pacesetter Point Lonsdale trailed in behind her having found nothing in the straight. Deauville Legend and Auguste Rodin had barely got into the home straight by the time the winner was crossing the line.

I am sure that Timeform will have rated the first two based on analysis of the sectional times but I would not bother to rate any of the other eight starters based on their lacklustre performances. It was a King George with more questions than answers.

 

Vadeni retired to stand at the Aga Khan's Stud:

https://www.attheraces.com/news/2023/August/16/vadeni-retired-to-stand-at-aga-khan's-stud

 

Such a shame as the aim was to bring him back for another crack at the Arc. But great to hear that, in the circumstances, they haven't persevered with him and given him a new role

 

With the news that Vadeni has been packed off to stud (hence his absence from Sunday’s Prix Gontaut-Biron line-up), it now looks like Jean Claude Rouget’s Arc contenders has reduced to a list of one: the favourite Ace Impact.

Hukum remains the shortest of the raiding party, with word being that he is going directly to Longchamp. So should his supporters take a price now and risk anything going wrong in order to cover themselves in case something goes wrong with the two French three year olds? No word on whether Grand Prix de Paris winner Feed The Flame intends to run again before October for Pascal Bary. His only defeat in four starts was when just fourth in the Prix Du Jockey Club behind Ace Impact.

Many of the bookies have Paddington in their lists but I simply do not see him showing up given how many other entries Aidan O’Brien holds; however, next week’s Juddmonte International may impact on the betting but not because of his presence. Currently the plan is for Desert Crown to contest the York showpiece after a long injury layoff and as a course and distance winner he should give us a good indication whether Paddington is currently being over-rated. Of course Mostahdaf might conquer the pair of them and there is no plan for him to venture to Longchamp.

The Yorkshire Oaks might help us decide the pecking order for the Gosden fillies and mares, if they all turn out. Looking at the ante post odds, the layers have Savethelastdance (as low as 10/1 for the Arc) favourite with Bluestocking second ahead of Free Wind (33/1 – 100/1 for the Arc), Emily Upjohn (12/1 – 20/1) and Soul Sister (20/1 – 66/1).

It seems unlikely that Saturday’s Geoffrey Freer will have any impact with Kemari heading the market ahead of Arrest, although the latter also holds an entry in the Great Voltigeur on the Knavesmire.

Ahead of the Ebor meeting, is it time to dabble in the Arc ante post market before some hopes are dashed five weeks before the race? It is hard to see Arc Trails Day telling us much as the French do not have any depth of real contenders.

 

Is Ace Impact likely to go for the Arc? He has not raced beyond 1m2½f and he is entered in 3 G1 races, the Arc and two 10f races. He should stay 12f but, like Vadeni, will have not been tested before the Arc; and he is 4/1

 

I am going entirely on what Jean Claude Rouget told the French racing media. He said that the target for Ace Impact was the Arc. However, he also said that Vadeni was going to the Prix Gontaut-Biron as his Arc warm up race and that one never showed up. One suspects that Vadeni had some sort of a training setback and they decided to retire him days after the intended race because the vets said he would not get back on the track before October.

My presumption is that Ace Impact will go straight to the Arc as Rouget did not suggest that he was going to the Prix Niel or Irish Champion Stakes en route. Of course that might have changed with Vadeni out of the picture...

 

Desert Crown out of the Juddmonte after suffering an injury. I wonder if we will ever see him on a racecourse again
Disappointment for Michael Dods as Azure Blue ruled out of Nunthrope bid | Racing Post

 

FFS. I really hope he never runs again. He seems so prone to injury that I would hate to see him break down. Unfortunately that could potentially affect his stud career as some may see it as a conformation weakness. Such a shame

 

Reading between the lines I think that we will not be seeing Desert Crown again, which is a shame as I would liked to have seen him at York, win or lose.

When I looked at the Juddmonte betting on Sunday morning, Paddington had shortened to 8/13.

Then owner’s rep. Bruce Raymond is reported to have said that the horse pulled up lame – obviously the gallops watchers had reported this to the bookies, who reacted accordingly. He then said that he was off to the veterinary hospital to see the horse. That tells me that he won’t be seen again.

Thankfully, I did not have a little on the Derby winner for the Arc...

 

Saturday’s action saw a few notable changes to the Arc betting just ahead of the Arc Trials card at Longchamp on Sunday.

Bay Bridge earned a 25/1 quote with victory in the September Stakes on the kitty litter, where his only real rival was Israr, who folded tamely out of contention while Sir Michael Stoute’s five year old won with plenty to spare.

Auguste Rodin is now a 12/1 chance following his less than impressive Irish Champion win whilst stablemate Luxembourg is available at more than twice the price, 25/1, for a half length defeat. Unsurprisingly King Of Steel is now out to 40/1 and anyone wanting a real mug’s bet can have 100/1 Nashwa and eat their ticket with ketchup watching her run in the Prix de l’Opéra.

 

Could have a new fav after today. If Feed the Flame wins in a good time, without being extended, that's our Arc winner, regardless of ground. If he doesn't, I can't imagine what the odds on the race will look like tonight. Can't wait to see the results