The 2023 Prix de l'Arc de Triomphe

Probably a wise decision. After the Tattersalls Gold Cup the vet (although not THAT vet) reported that Vadeni was found to be coughing post-race.

 

Looks like Francesco Clemente has been taken out of the 12f Ascot race and just left in two G1 10f races prior to the Arc. Beginning to look like a NR for the Arc. I was looking forward to that Ascot race which could have been very informative as he's never gone further than 10f. Damn

 

... But now the Gosdens have an exciting filly by the name of Al Asifah who won on Sunday and has been introduced in the Arc betting at 12/1 after just 2 runs. Needs supplementing

I must say this Arc market has been shaken up a few times recently. Not so long ago there was just one horse at 14/1 with nothing shorter. Now there are 7 at 14/1 or less (3 of them by Frankel)

 

Don't think I have ever seen a more open Arc than this year's. A case can be made for so many of the runners that even that great tipster, "Herr Heinrich Hindsight", might well be red-faced with the placings after the race has been run? Will definitely wait until the day of the race before considering a punt, but even then, will probably just watch it?

 

Quite so Swanny. I'm sticking with Vadeni for now. Now out to 33/1

I think the KG will sort some out but haven't seen the entries

 

Yep. No longer holds and entry and is only entered for 10f races, including Royal Ascot Tuesday Very disappointing

 

Don't think his heart was in it.
Soon, other parts of his anatomy may not be.

 

Blue Rose Cen is now a best priced 12/1 for the Arc after her impressive Prix De Diane victory, whilst most bookies go 10/1.

Q: Who would be interested and why?

I will declare that I am not. I expect that she will take her chance for her young trainer from a premier French training background. The owners surely want to go the whole ten yards in what might be her final race. Not so much as a horse, but as a bet, she looks a bad prospect.

 

Some of these impressive recent winners must surely be at a false price and probably won't run. This is allowing top class older horses Vadeni, Adayar and Luxembourg to be on offer at 33/1, 33/1 and 16/1 respectively. There must be doubts about their participation too. I think I'll just wait and see what turns up. My long range ante post suggestion, Vadeni ew at 14s not looking too clever

 

Surely unlikely to get 12f in a fast run race.

 

Looks like Mostahdaf has put paid to the chances of Luxembourg and Adayar and introduced at 20/1. What will be the next twist in this confusing year?

 

I do not think that Gosden will have thoughts of Longchamp in his mind with Mostahdaf. The horse was stone last in last season’s Arc. I can see them sticking to ten furlongs. When he was interviewed after the race, he pretty much poured cold water on suggestions of the Eclipse (Sandown will be gutted) and indicated the Juddmonte (York will be ecstatic) as next port of call. I then see it being Irish Champion and Champions’ Day at Ascot.

The Gosden barn is certainly not short of contenders for the Arc, both three year old and older (especially fillies/mares), so I see the colt sticking to ten furlongs. Might they be interested in giving the Breeders’ Cup Turf a go if they want to try him over twelve furlongs?

 

I hadn't spotted he came last in last season’s Arc. That could have been the ground and/or distance I suppose (btn 42l). I think definitely the ground was a major no no but given the rest of his form over 12f it would appear the distance isn't ideal. Makes one wonder why he ran least year. Even if the ground did come up fast this year, he is well held by Equinox who, I imagine, wouldn't run unless it did. So, as you say QM, unlikely to run but no doubt the bookies will take a few quid on him for now

 

Perhaps I should temper what I said about last year’s Arc with a few relevant facts. Mostahdaf was drawn out in the trees in stall 16. The horse drawn 20 finished 14th, 19 finished 15th, 17 finished 13th; however, Torquator Tasso finished third from stall 18. Alpinista won from 6 beating Vadeni from 2.

Rewatching the video, Crowley was never out of the last three and dropped his hands 300+ metres from the line when he was getting no response after trying to make a move turning into the straight. Dettori had moved from the back before the turn and the German horse responded but stayed on past beaten runners for third without having any chance to win. It seemed clear that Mostahdaf did not want the very soft ground and the draw made his participation pointless because of the chosen tactics. Only a very good horse can win from a high double digit draw.

Anyone backing Equinox for the Arc is throwing their money away. I would say there is no chance of him showing up judging by comments made by the connections to the media.

 

A couple of important races this week and it has been all change in the Arc market.

Starting on Thursday, the 2021 Derby winner Adayar fluffed his lines big time as odds on favourite for the Princess Of Wales’ Stakes, failing to hold off the challenge of the progressive Israr and trailing in a remote second of the four runners. We know that the Classic generation at Moulton Paddocks are not considered anything special (the yard’s strike rate notably poor this term) but it seems that the older generation are not up to much either. Anybody want 50/1 about a Derby winner for the Arc? Israr will surely have to keep improving to justify being added.

On Bastille Day in France, the feature race on the Longchamp evening fixture is the Grand Prix de Paris. The contest for three year olds over the Arc course and distance frequently attracts good overseas challengers but this year it even featured a Classic winner in Soul Sister. The Gosden’s filly was a warm order but only managed a disappointing third place, with second place going to the Ballydoyle contender Adelaide River, previously well beaten in the Derby and well beaten in the Chester Vase. I am now starting to wonder whether the Classic generation fillies are actually much good. Come the Arc, Soul Sister will be no better off with any three year old colts in the field and the ground will likely be soft again. Whilst Adelaide River will probably not be Aidan O’Brien’s first string in October (not entered, would they supplement him?), there is every chance that the winner, Pascal Bary’s Feed The Flame will be for the French handler.

Feed The Flame was one of the favourites for the Prix Du Jockey Club but was comprehensively beaten by Jean Claude Rouget’s Ace Impact at Chantilly and the collateral form lines make the colt from Pau the justifiable favourite for the Arc at this time as there seems every chance that he will be fine with the extra quarter of a mile. Both three year olds hold entries.

It is increasingly looking like Frankie’s Arc ride will be Emily Upjohn or Free Wind, assuming that either shows up with two and a half months of races to go beforehand. Are they on course to meet in the Yorkshire Oaks? Next week’s Irish Oaks will give us some indication of which Ballydoyle fillies might be in line for a trip to Paris.

 

Ace Impact did comprehensively beat Feed The Flame over 10.5f on good ground but then Feed The Flame won over 12f at Longchamp on good to soft in a fast time, despite colliding with the stalls and losing ground at the start and adrift in rear, then not much room and waited for gap 2f out. Nearly 4 lengths off leader inside final furlong, ran on under pressure, led final 50yds, readily. That must have been some performance, but he beat Adelaide RIver which doesn't exactly exude confidence. If Ace Impact is as good at 12f as he was at 10.5f it looks to be between him, Hukum and Westover now. BUt I haven't given up on Vadeni yet

 

I sincerely hope Sir Michael Stoute and his team are able to get Desert Crown fit, and get him over these niggling injuries. I do not think there is any jiggery-pokery going on at all. I hope to see the adverse and slightly spiteful remarks stuffed down the throats of Sir Michael's one or two detractors.

The performance of Westover yesterday showed that Desert Crown's Derby win was certainly no fluke. He's a damn good racehorse.

End of rant!

 

Strange rant Swanny. I haven't seen any suggestions that Desert Crown isn't a good horse, nor anyone casting aspersions on SMS. Are these on another site?

 

OK, maybe I got it all wrong, but I really thought there were a few 'inferences', maybe on other threads, that suggested to me that some thought Sir Michael and Co. were up to some tricks.

If I got it wrong, then so be it, don't usually 'dream-up' rants just for the sake of it. Apologies.