His only experience as a manager in English football: guiding Swansea to 10th in the Championship. Which happens to be what Martin just did.
There's no way Potter comes anywhere near Saints, when there's going to be one or two PL opportunities for him before the season begins, and another three or four as the season progresses.
Hmmm. Ok, so a VERY LONG post, apologies. I did a bit or reading and watching. So Martin seems like an interesting enough guy and likeable enough. He has a pretty clear footballing philosophy and identity. He's a buddhist which is a life choice I can get behind and he has been getting attention for his tactical approach. Still, he hasn't delivered much success yet at any of the clubs he's managed. Primarily he seems to get attention for the way he sets his teams up as its different to many others. Someone somewhere within Saints really, really, really really wants us to play with a back 3 (Um, Rasmus) so we have seen a declining Ralph playing a back 3 with little success and then NJ who loves a back 3 and getting beaten by 10 men and now we are heading to Russ Martin who has a back 3 and a keeper who plays as a CB in the buildup and a single pivot who is apparently part of the back 4 even tho he's a pivot. He preaches patience, patience and more patience, especially to his forwards who seem to spend a lot of time isolated, watching a slow build up from the other end of the pitch. Probably why a lot of fans found his style less than exciting. His build up play has a hint of gimicky recklessness about it and in the EPL it would be ruthlessly exposed IMO. Keepers ignoring the open CBs and trying to slip balls through the press to an onrushing pivot who then has to turn and play to an isolated forward just wouldn't work but we aren't in the EPL anymore. Still, it feels like a challenge any decent manager would be up for and in the end it would get worked out, just like Ralphs pressing game did. Swansea scored ok, 5th in the league for goals scored but the defensive issues largely cancelled it out giving them +4 goal diff. He has 2 managerial appointments behind him MKDons and Swansea. He has built this approach at both. Problem is, so far it hasn't been very effective when it comes to earning points and this feels like another metrics appointment. Most possession in the league? Check. Most progressive passes per game? Check. Most pressing actions per game? Check. Still his career win percentage is 36% his points per game with MKDons 1.17, 1.46 and swansea 1.31 & 1.39. Kompany achieved 2.2 to win the league this season and Sheffield 1.98. He was 3 points of a playoff position but looking at the table that's not so impressive 8 teams were within 3 points of playoff more importantly he was 25 points behind SheffUtd. I'm putting all this out there because its very relevant for us next year, he needs to find 10-15 more wins with Saints next season while very likely playing in the same manner as he has led Swansea. Where would these extra points come from while trying to build a newish team and school them in his particular brand of football during a short pre-season? I have no idea. I hate to be a negative ninny but this doesn't have the feel of a confidence inspiring bounce back appointment to me. It feels like an attempt to get on board with something different that appears clever but in the past has been exposed as a bit 'emperors new clothes'. Hopefully I am wrong and his last 10 games in charge of Swansea is representative of some epiphany and that we don't see repeats of the 15 games that preceded it.
Nor should he. Remaining gainfully employed in the top flight is about narrative as much as it is acumen. And right now, Potter has a compelling narrative to get another PL job: hotshot young(ish) manager who flew too close to the sun, and got humbled. Perfect guy for a mid-table side with European qualifying ambitions (if West Ham moves on from Moyes, I'd expect him to be the day one betting favourite). But if he were to drop into the Championship, anything less than immediate promotion (and the odds are always against that) would tarnish that narrative. It's minimal upside, massive downside.
Exactly this. He'll be able to pick from (possibly) Palace, (maybe) Wham, and then whomever doesn't get relegated from Leicester, Everton and Leeds for starters. And that's without the inevitable season turnover. If De Zerbi, or should that be when De Zerbi gets poached, it's not impossible that he goes full circle either.
"Something that appears clever but in the past has been exposed as a bit 'emperors new clothes'" is actually Rasmus's full middle name.
And even if he doesn't get something this summer, he's probably best off simply waiting. Eddie Howe sat by the phone for over a year, because he was still getting PL interest (even if it didn't come to fruition). And voila, now he'll be managing in CL.
Speaking of slow, patient passing, a commitment to slightly risky build-up from the back, and a progressive speed as it moves through the thirds - that is actually exactly how RDZ's Brighton play. So I hope it's more of that than anything else.
Yes true. Maybe the difference is in the quality of the players. I did consider that when I was writing my post. But then I realised that all our good players will be sold and we will be left with the ones that can't keep the ball, cant pass the ball forwards, can't press effectively and can't score. So I decided that it was still a valid post to make.
Absolutely it is, but I think that it's the reason why we've gone the direction we have. Yes, it's fraught with risk (but then I think most managerial appointments that we could potentially get would be at this juncture). It *feels* a lot better and more sensible than the decision to employ the unmentionable one at least, and it shows we have some idea of what we'd like to be moving forwards. So they are all positives. Whether it works or not is another matter entirely.
Think switching from a back 3 to a back 4 made a big difference there. Apparently it took Martin a long time to change it though. Sounds familiar.
Ah, but the difference is he went on to manage Brighton very successfully. Martin hasn’t done that yet. Neither had Jones when he came to us. I just don’t trust SR to get this right. Happy to be proven wrong.
Looks like he switched to a 4231 around December so yes, you are likely right. Another DeZerbi comparison right there. Cant find much analysis of the their last 10 games. Edit - yep, 4231 with a box midfield. https://theanalyst.com/eu/2023/01/swansea-city-impress-analytics-stats-championship-2022-23/
you think????? 50/50 as a Swans fan a lot of fans want him gone, I read it week in week out during the season, personally I thought he did a pretty good job considering the lack of backing he had from the owners
Swansea finish 4th in the season before Martin takes over. Then they drop to a 15th place finish in his first season. MK Dons finish 13th in Martin's final season. Then they finish 3rd place the season after he's gone. It's almost comically bad. Obviously that doesn't tell the whole story, but this appointment already has experiment-gone-wrong written all over it. Hopefully we will still have one of the strongest squads by the time the season starts, so if Martin is bad, the damage will be minimal. I expect even Jones or Selles would finish mid-table with a decent squad in the Championship, and surely Martin can't be as bad as either of those two. What little faith I have, comes from the fact that Swansea usually recruit good managers. Bit tactless hiring a new manager while the current one is still in charge and hasn't been spoken to, but tactless seems to be a trademark of SR.
Oh. I was starting to think I was being unnecessarily negative but I’m not sure now. whatever, after this season it will be just more of what we have become used to. If he wins a game it will be an improvement.
