So, I decided to do a thing. And that thing involved going through 25 years of data, from the 1995-96 season through 2019-20, and seeing how teams relegated from the Premier League did in their 1st, 2nd and 3rd years after getting relegated to the Championship. Set the 2019-20 cutoff so that I'd have a full three years to look at with all teams. Raw data here, in glorious Microsoft Paint form (where I took the screenshot with my cursor in the picture just to drive people mad trying to move it): Spoiler: Data 9 times in 25 years, a relegated team went straight back up as champions. 21 out of the 75 relegated teams (28%) came straight back up, with 16 via autos and a further 5 via the playoffs. Less than 50% of relegated teams, 48%, made at least the playoffs the following season, and 22 of the 75 teams never made the playoffs once in the following three seasons. Overall, how likely were relegated teams to bounce back? Well, if you didn't go straight back up, the odds got worse from there: Only 12 of the 53 teams that didn't get promoted at the first time of asking managed it in years two or three. That means 33 of 75 made it back within three years overall (44%), with 10 of 75 getting relegated (13.3%), and the other 32 falling into midtable mediocrity (42.7%). Bit of a mixed bag overall, but getting back at the best of times isn't that easy...on average, less than one team per year gets back immediately, and the average league position across all teams in their first year in the Championship is 8th. So, yay.
Pretty close to the same, I think. Doing it on the fly, I count 10 teams in 11 years that went straight back up (through this year), which would be 30.3%.
The fact you haven't included the last three seasons is significant, since a relegated team has finished 1st every time. Guessing this could be because of Covid causing even more of a gap. So hopefully any club with a bit of clout should have an even better chance to wrestle their way out within a couple of seasons.
Didn't include them because we don't have a full three years of data, but it doesn't meaningfully change the numbers. Instead of 21 of 75, it becomes 25 of 84, increasing the rate by less than 2%. It's probably randomness more than anything. There was previously a five-year span where no relegated team went up via the autos, followed by back-to-back years where they won the league. And while one newly-relegated team won the league this season, the other two did quite poorly.
Surely the new PL tv deal that kicked in a 4/5 years ago also comes into the equation? The financial gap between probably 85% of the championship and the teams getting relegated is huge as long as relegated team isn’t completely skint
2006/07 was, I believe, when parachute payments were first introduced (we were one of the last relegated teams to not benefit from them). And yeah, with each new increased PL TV deal since then, the value of those parachutes has gone one way.
But you also have an equal gulf in terms of wages from the PL to the Championship, even with relegation wage decrease clauses, which chews through those parachute payments awfully quickly, combined with a significant gap in the teeth behind their respective financial regulations. This is particularly true because most teams don't pay all of their transfer fees up front (which is most of the reason the parachute payments exist in the first place): we likely still owe tens of millions in transfer debt.
Let's nor forget that wages are slashed nearly in half, and you'd imagine ALOT of players will leave too. Also we have Theo, Moi, Willy and AMN with there time up too.
I have mentioned it before and I think Theo will get a new contract. Not at Premiership wages. In fairness over the last few games he has shown glimpses of the old Theo and is now championship standard unfortunately. He does genuinely love the club and it would be a fitting end to his career to get us promoted.
It's ironic that this season's running joke was Walcott's influence in the dressing room, as it actually turns out it was a lack of influence in the dressing room, that has been one of the biggest factors in our relegation. So yes, we need to keep at least a handful of individuals who actually understand what the club is about, and have some sort of affinity to it. I'd beg Kelvin Davis to come back into the fold if I was SR, but of course they won't.
