Mon Parrain out to 5/1 now. Very strange drift this close to the race. That is more of a backable price but Wishful Thinking at 7s is probably as fair a price as any given his consistent top performances. Lossen My Load at 16s remains my bet, but will see how the market shapes in the morning.
Top class.....The bookies are probably just looking to take him on, in what is a very competitive race. You see it quite alot with heavy favourites in big races, either the night before, or the morning of the race. I very much doubt it is because of negative vibes coming from connections
I've ended up plumping for Great Endeavour and have done a little double on him to win the Hennessy also. Boylesports were kind enough to allow me to combine his 12/1 and 20/1 for both races to give me a 273/1 double which is pretty surprising as all other bookies restrict this
Will be Wishfull Thinking for me tomorrow, the horse has some very good form in the book and fits a lot of the main trends for this race. At a slightly bigger price Araldur looks a very good proposition, well I hope that's the case anyway. I can't get that Aintree run out of my mind where Mon Parrain is concerned, traveled and jumped like a machine through out the race and then found nothing when in front. I think Wishfull Thinking will be there with him at the end and I fancy him to find more than Mon when push comes to shove. Then again I could be completely wrong.
I have just posted this in the Saturday daily thread: http://www.ladbrokes.com/ppgc/ Anyone who uses the Ladbrokes MOBILE APP to bet on the Paddy Power Gold Cup tomorrow will get double the odds. I rarely use them but had a casino free spins offer mailed through yesterday, won a few quid so was about to put it on the Paddy Power Gold Cup tomorrow when I read the mobile offer. Mon Parrain at 10/1 sounds a much fairer price! But it only applies to the Paddy Power Gold Cup race, and MUST be placed via the mobile app.
I fancy Loosen My Load WF, haven't looked properly at the form for any of the other races as of yet. Have a good day tommorow, hope it's profitable
Paul believes his horse can triumph at Cheltenham on Saturday but would he take the current odds? The answer, and more, is revealed below... Sometimes in racing you need to open the eyes and close the ears. And I think we have reached that stage when assessing Mon Parrain's chances in the Paddy Power Gold Cup at Cheltenham tomorrow. The bookmakers predictably jumped on the hype bandwagon at the start of the week and, with some now predicting he could go as short as 2-1, enough is enough. Lest you need reminding, a certain Long Run was beaten at that price off a mark of just 158 in the race last season before winning the King George and Gold Cup. Do I think that Mon Parrain can win tomorrow? Yes, of course I do and I fancy him. I have trained him specifically for the race, he goes there fit to run for his life and is a horse of immense, and Grade 1, potential. He could be thrown in off 152 - he isn't at all badly handicapped on what he has shown for me on the course so far - and that is why I left him in the King George at the latest forfeit stage; I'd look pretty stupid if he strolled home and he wasn't even entered at Kempton. But is he a good price at the current Betfair odds of 4.5? Well, I am no betting man but I personally wouldn't be rushing to take those odds. He is not the easiest to train, I am not entirely sure of his optimum trip and I would be lying if the fact that he got beaten at Aintree (off a 3lb higher mark, remember) didn't play on my mind to a small degree. And whereas I knew Granit Jack was the best handicapped horse going into the race in 2007, I cannot honestly say the same of Mon Parrain. And then, of course, there is the little matter of the opposition, all 19 of them. As much as I fancy my horse, I imagine all of Mon Parrain's rivals have been trained specifically for this race too, and who knows how many of them have a few pounds in hand? After all, Timeform have only 4lb covering their top 10 rated horses in the race (Mon Parrain is 1lb behind top-rated Great Endeavour). In short, I know my horse and am very hopeful of gaining my first win in the race. Any horse that jumps as well as he does - and he was stunning at both Sandown and Aintree - has an immediate advantage over his rivals, and last week's Exeter racecourse gallop with Kauto Star and Big Buck's will have hopefully put up him spot on for this. And you can judge from yourself from the video below how well he worked on Thursday morning, as Betfair came down and put a helmet cam on his work rider, a certain Georgie Nicholls! If I hope that Mon Parrain could develop into a Grade 1 performer, we already know that Poquelin is one. But then that is why he is giving away weight all round here. He got the go ahead for this after working on Thursday morning and let's hope he can put a very disappointing reappearance effort in the Charlie Hall behind him. He was beaten too far out for the 3m trip to have the cause at Wetherby - that was the first time he had stayed away overnight, so maybe that's a reason - but he is some animal on his day, as he showed when giving Great Endeavour 21lb and a length beating at Cheltenham in December. And David Prichard's 7lb claim helps, too. But realistically, I can't see him giving weight all round here, though his class and good ground give him an each way squeak at what are sure to be big odds. Aerial completes my trio for the race, though he is racing from 4lb out of the handicap here, so he is effectively 14lb higher in the weights than when winning first time up for me at Wincanton. He was beaten at Ascot in April and doesn't look the best handicapped horse in the race. But he had a breathing operation in the summer, and we know how that can transform a horse. We saw that with Brampour at Ascot, and Plenty Pocket at Kempton. So while it wouldn't be the greatest surprise in the world were he to run a big race, as he is working and schooling well, he looks up against it here.
Great summary toppy! Im going for Loosen my load 16/1- there are so many who can win, but fancy loosen my load to come over from ireland and take this big prize! Has a good jockey on in H de bromhead who does well at this meeting one of them announcing the arrival of the QM chase winner Sizing europe here. Is 11lb better off than wishfull thinking who beat him at the festival last year and the drop in weigh thanks to the presence of poquelin will go massivley in his favour! Which is why he is my choice and also thanks to Shergar!! Plus he his alot better value than Wishfull thinking who is half the price!! so an E/W bet with a bookie who pays out for 5 places! is tremendous value!!
Shergar he lost both times to Realt Dubh over two miles before winning at Cheltenham in the Jewson which IMO will prove nothing of note this year unless Wishful Thinking produces in the Paddy Power, The Jewson the strongest novice chase last year? Are you sure? Each to there own I suppose. He lost an hurdle race to Jessies Dream at Punchestown over 2 and half which is clearly his strongest trip and probably further. There are better horses from the novices races last year though Jessies Dream to name one, First Leiutenant, Time For Rupert, Bostons Angel will all prove to be better horses than Noble Prince. Two miles is too sharp for Noble Prince so why connections are even attempting to take on Big Zeb the former Champion trainer is laughable... I don't doubt your knowledge Shergar, But Noble Prince isnt as good as You believe IMO...
Istabraq....The highest rated novice from last season was Wishfull Thinking, and that was down to the fact he won by 10 lenghs at Aintree, and then overcame a massive weight to win conceding lumps to all of his rivals at Punchestown, yet the only horse to beat him was a certain Noble Prince. Noble Prince progressed a hell of alot throughout last season, so holding his hurdle form against him is rather naive, heck Silviniaco Conti hammered Captain Chris by 10 lenghs over hurdles last season, which horse would you prefer to own? Watch the way Noble Prince travels, he is pure class, his engine is massive, it took an all out Wishful Thinking to get him off the bit, and even then he stormed past to win by an increasing 4 lenghs. 2 miles isnt his trip, so I'm suprised he is taking on Big Zeb, to me he's a 2m4+ horse, but trying him over 2 miles won't Hurt, if he wins, then they have a Champion Chase contender, if not, then il be hoping we see him over 3 miles. The handicapper took a very dim view of the Jewson, yet he clearly made a massive mistake, with the performances of Wishfull Thinking afterwards, and as a result everything from that race is incredibly well handicapped, and if Loosen My Load runs to the same form as when 3rd in that race tommorow then he bolts up, simple as that
Shergar, there's always a basic flaw in evaluating form by indirect and relative statistics ie. Noble Prince did this or that...and Loosen My Load was only beaten 9 lengths by Noble Prince...therefore...etc,etc. The fact is it's only one performance "on the day" and it might be the very best that Loosen My Load has to offer. Also, Noble Prince has bypassed this race, so why didn't Paul Nolan fancy his chances to win it off 11st 4lbs? Maybe he thought it was too much to ask- after all, Long Run couldn't win it with 11st 1lb and give Little Josh 10lbs! So if Noble Prince can't win it off 11st 4lbs, then neither can Loosen My Load win it off 10st 9lbs, can he? ( I accept this isn't necessarily logical either!) More important, as I see it, is progressiveness. Loosen My Load never ran as well after his good third to Noble Prince- whereas Long Run thrived after his defeat by Little Josh. The other factor to bear in mind is that the race is not as good as last year's. There are only 12 horses in the handicap proper...which can often mean.....don't neglect the top weight! Having said all that, it's a very competitive race and very hard to call.
Nice job Tam. This is one hell of a way to try and make a buck. Poquelin put in a very ordinary run behind Weird Al, he was a shot duck a fair way out, so for me, he's a huge risk, but he is a nice price. Wishful Think is one of those who's been off the scene for a while, so he too is a risk. A few others also fit the same bill. Mon Parrain, Great Endeavour, Dave's Dream, Holmwood Legend, Calgary Bay and Quantitativeeasing are all in the same boat. So for me the race is a real mine field. All the best to anyone who ventures into the arena.
Quantitiveeasing - 25/1 The horse has been readily overlooked by most, but I think this Nicky Henderson runner can upset the applecart and win the PPGC. He was poor on his seasonal return at Fairyhouse, but he showed a good deal more than the result suggests that day. He travelled well enough through the race before coming closer to the pace at 5 out. He then weakened out of it soon after making up the ground, suggesting to me that he was either in need of the run or the extended trip pushed his stamina to breaking point. That was over 3m5 furlongs, and for the most part I think he looks more of a 3mile horse. This brings me onto the PPGC, its a race that I think unexposed second season chasers do really well in, and I think the selection is really nicely weighted on his run behind Divers at the Cheltenham Festival. He gets a 7lb swing in the weights with that horse here and I think he is the one in the lower half of the field that is open to masses of improvement this season. He also is trained by Nicky Henderson, who is in great form at the moment, and I think this race could be set up perfectly for him. I think they will go a proper gallop and I think you want a stayer here, and I think he is good enough to come through strong as they climb for home to wear down Mon Parrain and Wishful Thinking to claim the PPGC. Then I wake up
Divers EW spoke to Glee at sedgefield on tuesday, confident of place despite being PU lto paddy power paying 5 places and at 16s seems good ew value
Had a few quid on The Giant Bolster. I saw this horse hack up on Festival trials day and if the horse can get his jumping together he can be a very good horse, 10st 2lb is a very attractive weight and David Bridgewaters 6 year old can run a big race, 14s is a nice price. That said he should be 10s to get round....
