Is this luck? Leicester win title in 2015/16 with 81 points. Tottenham come second in 2016/17 with 86 points. ( Leicester finished 12th with 44 points )
There's likely more analysis and discussion because there's greater interest in that team though, so I just think that's kind of part and parcel of the food chain in football. Neutrals and pundits are more interested in things involving the Liverpool's and Man Utd's of the world than they are the Bournemouth's and Southampton's. People like you and I are almost certainly never going to watch enough games involving the latter two to gain an idea as to whether they seemingly get the rub of the green with decisions, yet we'll watch Liverpool/ Utd/ Arsenal/ Chelsea/ City games because they're more of interest both from a sporting and rivalry perspective and so when decisions go in their favour we'd notice it more so than we would if Bournemouth or Southampton had decisions go their way. I don't agree that VAR is giving second chance bias though, I do however think the VAR process is criminally flawed and ruining the sport.
What I am trying to do is assess the degree to which luck affects games over a season. The fact that it's very unusual in cricket for the lesser team to beat the greater one (I am talking test cricket) suggests that luck is less significant over a period of time in the game. One dayers and 20/20 are completely different and I would argue the luck element becomes more similar to football. Yes you have luck in golf but 18 holes will generally rule out the lucky winner. Of course when the teams or players are very closely matched all these factors can change in significance.
Mark Clattenburg and Graham Poll, for a start. https://www.mirror.co.uk/sport/football/news/liverpool-man-utd-clattenburg-klopp-23320113 https://www.mirror.co.uk/sport/football/news/manchester-united-graham-poll-says-3253533 The fact that we didn't get a penalty against Utd for about 30 years tells it's own story, though.
I tend to agree with this. One example was all over Spurs social media recently as they try in vain to win back the supporters - an anniversary throwback to our crucial 0-1 victory at the Etihad that secured CL football for the first time in our history. The game was impossibly finely balanced, both sides had 50% possession and 10 attempts on goal each. Younes Kaboul's cross took a "lucky" deflection off the defender, which wrong-footed Fulop in goal, which he could only parry into the path of the tallest player on the pitch and the rest, as they say, is history. So it could be argued that we "owe" CL qualification to a lucky deflection. It could also be argued hypothetically that we were "lucky" #1 GK Shay Given was injured as perhaps he would have done better with the cross. But these arguments clearly ignore an equally crucial contributing factor which was entirely in City's control to alter: Their positioning was completely wrong - Wayne Bridge was miles upfield as Kaboul advanced, leaving Craig Bellamy isolated to deal with the threat - a threat he lacked the skillset to deal with. Had a natural LB been in position, perhaps Kaboul wouldn't have got the cross in at all and the goal wouldn't have happened. So yes, there is always an element of random fortune, but lurking not very far behind is a moment or moments of avoidable incompetence.
Luck exists in every sport and affects injuries, refereeing decisions, etc. But the best teams counter luck with good decision making and of course, good use of their resources. You can’t stop Manuel Lanzini belting a shot in on the 90th minute to take 2 points away, but you can make sure you score enough goals that a player scoring a low xG shot doesn’t matter. You can’t stop your star player getting a freak injury in training but you can have adequate replacements and a system of play that maximises the impact of the team over the quality of the component parts.
Getting back to the game, if the dysfunctional sides of each of these teams show up tonight, it will be like watching a car crash. Might be goals in it though if defences go AWOL again
One of the good things watching Spurs right now is that I have absolutely no expectations. There is no tension about chasing a champions league place or trying to win a cup. There is little hope of a win so that even a draw will be above expectations. In fact Dickens could be called upon there are no Great Expectations. Spurs stadium might be compared to The Old Curiosity Shop. This evenings game is A Tale of Two Cities and with Spurs suffering Hard Times even David Copperfield would find it hard and Oliver Twist would have no chance asking for more. Bleak House sort of sums it all up.
Mason says the team are looking to make amends tonight for the shambles on Sunday. I'm hoping that we will at least see a higher tempo and greater levels of committment. My only prediction is that this greater level of commitment will almost certainly result in a completely unnecessary red card for Romero.
Just a thought: would anybody accept a narrow loss tonight if it causes Man Utd to go on a run of form at the exact same time the Runners have a late season collapse? After all, finishing third in a two-horse race is still possible for them...
Of course we have underperformed this season. Knocked out of the league Cup by a team in serious relegation trouble, knocked out of the fa cup by a injury plagued championship team and in our last 5 league games failed to beat 10 man Everton, gave away a two goal lead against the team at the bottom of the table Southampton and lost at home to Bournemouth (who are in serious relegation trouble and have only won 1 other away game all season). We have only won 2 of our last 11 away games. We have only won 9 of our last 22 matches in all competitions since the World Cup ended. One was against a league 1 team and 1 was against a championship team. That's underperformed by anyone's standards
I'm guessing somebody isn;t paying their Russian bot farm anymore, the first 40 replies aren't the same JPEG...
