Daily Racing Thread Tuesday 14th. March 2023

Yeeeeeessssssss

 

Getting these in early before I change my mind

Supreme Novices Hurdle
The rather depressing trend of this race in recent years has been that it goes to the Irish unless Nicky
Henderson has a superstar – and he doesn’t even have a runner this year. As the British entries are
all at least a stone short of what will be required we have to focus on the Irish challenge. Prior to the
DRF Facile Vega would have been very high on most people’s banker list but Paul Townend’s brain
fart in getting involved with High Definition on the front end suddenly dispelled the notion that Facile
Vega is invincible. I was prepared to take him on anyway, but after the DRF even more so. Il Etait
Temps is on many shortlists, but I think he is exposed, and the race rather fell into his lap at the DRF.
Although you must go back to Like-A-Butterfly in 2002 to find the last Royal Bond winner who went
on to win the Supreme, Marine Nationale looks to have a touch of star quality about him and the
fact he has avoided winter ground will hopefully be a positive. He can sit in behind the likely strong
pace and use his change of gear to go clear after the final hurdle.

Arkle
This looks to be a match between Jonbon and El Fabiolo and I am just coming down in favour of
Jonbon. Yes, his Warwick win was pretty sketchy but 2 runner affairs can often be muddling and I
think he will have learnt a lot more winning the way he did than cantering round on the bridle. I think
El Fabiolo won a pretty soft-looking Irish Arkle (Dysart Dynamo went off too fast and the others need
further) but he did it in good style and obviously there is little between the 2 on Aintree hurdles
form. I just think Jonbon is a slightly more assured jumper and that can tip the balance in his favour.

Ultima Handicap Chase
Since I found the 2019 winner Beware The Bear based on him having run 4th the previous year, my
starting point for this race is those horses who have contested previous renewals. This year that
brings in Happygolucky (2nd in 2021) and Corach Rambler, Oscar Elite, Tea Clipper and Fantastikas
from last year’s race. I think Happygolucky will run a big race but may be vulnerable to one lower
down the pile. Lucinda Russell has given Corach Rambler a much easier time this season as he bids to
follow up off a 6 pounds higher mark and he is rightly toward the top of the market. Oscar Elite is
5lbs higher than last year but comes here in fine fettle after finally getting the monkey off his back
over fences when taking the Reynoldstown. Tea Clipper has also been nudged up a couple of pounds
to 147 but the one who really takes my eye is Fantastikas. He is a whopping 12lbs lower than last
season where he was on the pace throughout but couldn’t go on after the second last. The significantly lower mark and application of first time cheekpieces and tongue strap will surely give him a huge chance and he has been well supported since declarations (33/1 in to 14/1).

Champion Hurdle
I wasn’t watching racing in the golden hurdling era of the late 70s / early 80s but Constitution Hill is
the best hurdler I have ever seen and he wins this easily.

Mares Hurdle
A clash of 2 former Champion Hurdle winners and I am firmly with Epatante. Despite having twice
seen Constitution Hill disappearing into the distance this season she comfortably beat the rest in
those races and showed her trademark slick hurdling to easily dispatch a grade 2 mares field at
Doncaster. Honeysuckle is very clearly on the downgrade as evidence by her struggling to finish in
front of the likes of Vauban, Pied Piper and Zanahiyr despite the weight allowance in the Irish
Champion Hurdle and her defeat by Teahupoo and Klassical Dream in the Hatton’s Grace shows she
is even more vulnerable over the longer trip. Marie’s Rock won last year’s renewal against a very
poor field and looks an uneasy favourite. Epatante all the way for me, confident selection.

Fred Winter
I heard a very interesting stat on a preview night around this race – horses who finished 2nd or 3rd last time out have a terrible record so you want either one that won their prep race or finished 4th or
worse. So you can rule out 10 of the 24 (including reserves) runners based on that stat, which helps a little. The rest of the field will be happy to see Mctigue declared but I can’t be having him after that
terrible run in the Morebattle. In fact I’m surprised he is running with the bonus gone. Having
reviewed what little form is on offer the one I am going for is Ben Pauling’s Samuel Spade. He had 10 runs on the flat for David O’Meara, the highlight being a 10F handicap win at Haydock last summer for which he earned his peak flat rating of 73. He won a rather attritional juvenile hurdle at Kempton on 27th Dec on soft ground from Chaos Control (subsequently hacked up by 22 lengths at Market Rasen). He then contested the listed Chatteris Fen Juvenile Hurdle at Huntingdon under a penalty and failed by 3 lengths to give 8lbs to Perseus Way. He then returned to Huntingdon for a novices hurdle and romped home at odds of 2/13. He did jump left that day so hopefully going left-handed here will suit him better. He has a 14lbs pull with Perseus Way (subsequently had the Adonis at his mercy before making a right Horlicks of the last) in this and I think he looks a decent bet at around 20/1.

NH Chase
Looking at my picks for day 1 I haven’t got Mullins winning a race so far but Gaillard du Mesnil looks
rock solid here and can get the GOAT on the board.

Good luck everyone

 

I know but look (as they say in Ireland) Banbridge and Appreciate It (2nd and 3rd in the Irish Arkle) are going to the Turners - neither is a pure 2 mile speed horse - and Dysart Dynamo again took too much out of himself. It is the strongest 2 mile novice chase form out there this season BUT I can't be getting overly carried away about it. I think Jonbon has a lot more in the locker, will be suited by a strongly run race and is just a bit more tractable than El Fabiolo. It is fine margins, of course, but I think Jonbon wins it.

 

Serious drift on Epatante - out to 8s in places. Utterly friendless.