Indeed, Sir. Although the first 5 home that day finished quite close together (within 5 lengths) and all remain in the Boodles.
Ultima weight rank Weight Rank Runners Winners Win S/R IV PRB PRB^2 WAX 1 11 1 9.09 1.98 62.44 50.55 0.28 2 9 0 0 0 37.39 27.56 -0.39 3 15 0 0 0 42.09 23.93 -0.69 4 12 1 8.33 1.86 41.73 31.09 0.44 5 12 1 8.33 1.75 34.87 23.31 0.5 6 9 0 0 0 73.15 62.58 -0.66 7 6 0 0 0 49.93 39.5 -0.49 8 13 2 15.38 3.29 42.79 33.35 1.33 9 6 0 0 0 45.73 31.54 -0.34 10 10 0 0 0 52.16 33.52 -0.37 11 15 0 0 0 46.3 31.54 -0.72 12 7 0 0 0 61.53 53.43 -0.44 13 8 1 12.5 2.5 36.59 24.97 0.56 14 9 0 0 0 45.95 33.4 -0.27 15 14 2 14.29 3.29 32.98 25.14 1.42 16 10 1 10 2.12 47.9 38.73 0.41 17 5 0 0 0 41.46 24.22 -0.08 18 10 0 0 0 38.47 22.15 -0.36 19 12 0 0 0 43.33 34.42 -0.6 20 3 0 0 0 50 37.81 -0.09 21 10 0 0 0 25.47 20.33 -0.37 22 4 0 0 0 52.82 38.27 -0.04 23 6 0 0 0 36.96 23.79 -0.09 24 2 1 50 12 50 50 0.95
Fred Winter weight rank Weight Rank Runners Winners Win S/R IV PRB PRB^2 WAX 1 17 1 5.88 1.32 39.98 25.86 -0.04 2 12 2 16.67 3.74 62.06 49.48 1.27 3 17 0 0 0 41.92 28.37 -1.18 4 12 0 0 0 44.62 30.42 -0.54 5 14 1 7.14 1.65 36.54 24.72 0.36 6 10 0 0 0 50.4 35.01 -0.49 7 18 0 0 0 41.75 26.33 -1.22 8 10 0 0 0 47.26 32.25 -0.34 9 17 1 5.88 1.33 70.81 54.95 -0.06 10 13 0 0 0 46.52 28.75 -0.46 11 14 1 7.14 1.57 56.58 42.46 0.29 12 10 1 10 2.2 55.45 45.36 0.43 13 21 1 4.76 1.06 49.81 35.46 0.07 14 14 1 7.14 1.61 40.53 26.7 0.41 15 14 0 0 0 45.1 28.48 -0.37 16 8 0 0 0 33.84 17.18 -0.32 17 7 0 0 0 40.04 20.29 -0.18 18 14 2 14.29 3.23 46.8 34.29 1.54 19 19 1 5.26 1.21 62.96 44.15 0.47 20 10 0 0 0 51.34 30.77 -0.23 21 3 0 0 0 64.44 45.41 -0.05 22 9 0 0 0 52.57 33.82 -0.28 23 7 1 14.29 3.4 61.18 45.4 0.86 24 2 0 0 0 0 0 -0.01
In the Ultima I like 2 who fit a decent number of the trends - Oscar Elite and Fantastikas. Both 8YO, both with "appliances" but with very different profiles. Oscar Elite finished 3rd in the race last year off 134 and is 5lbs higher this year after a fine win in the Reynoldstown last time out. Fantastikas has dropped to a very eye-catching mark of 132 (finished 7th last year off 144) - that is his lowest mark since his debut chase victory in a Lingfield handicap in November 2021. The only thing putting me off is the Twister's poor record in the race - just 2 places from 26 runners in the race over the last 20 years. But Fantastikas does look very well handicapped here and has first-time cheek pieces and tongue tie applied.
Supreme Novice - Facile Vega Arkle - El Fabiolo Ultima - Fantastikas, Monbeg Genius, Into Overdrive Champion Hurdle - Constitution Hill Mares - no qualifiers by the look of it. Fred Winter - Mighty Mo Missouri, Morning Soldier, Mctigue, Action Motion, Perseus Way, Metamorpheus NH Chase - Gaillard Du Mesnil (Chemical Energy, Mister Coffey others who may qualify on SP)
There's a lot of love for Fantastikas out there. He was 33/1 when I posted this yesterday but now best-priced 18/1 and many firms going 14/1
10pt per race (unless stated) - Betfair SP Supreme - Facile Vega Arkle - El Fabiolo Ultima - 3pt each - Fantastikas, Monbeg Genius, Into Overdrive. 0.1pt forecast 0.1pt Tricasts Champion - Constitution Hill (no bet) Mares - no bet Fred Winter - 2pt each Mighty Mo Missouri, Morning Soldier, Mctigue, Action Motion, Perseus Way, Metamorpheus NH Chase - 6pt Gaillard Du Mesnil (2pt GDM to beat Chemical Energy/Mister Coffey forecast) 52.2pt staked
El Fabiolo returned 21.56pts Gaillard Du Mesnil returned 12.09pt GDM/Chemical Energy returned 17.7pt 51.35 returned. Well worth the effort for a -0.85pt loss
Ultima - This year it throws up The Goffer Minella Crooner Monbeg Genius Chianti Classico Trelawne Weveallbeencaught Fred Winter throws up Palamon Bright Legend Eagles Reign Milan Tino and NH Chase Salvador Ziggy
That Naas Rated Novice Hurdle was won by Eagle Fang this year from Bright Legend, Pacini and Nara. Three of the 4 entered for the Fred Winter (Pacini is a reserve). NARA was giving weight all round that day and was very tenderly ridden indeed. Nara has an 8lb pull with Eagle Fang in the Fred Winter.
The way I look at stats is: After this year No of runners will go up by 1 No of winners will either stay as it is or go up by 1 Next year the stats will look just as compelling, regardless
I put in spaces to align the letters with the headings and it bloody took them out. I think the only (simple) way to get the alignment is to put it in a Word Table, or Excel (or the like) and paste into the post ie as amended
PS I should have added of course that the stats are, nevertheless, interesting and, if accompanied with some sound logic which could explain the numbers they could be meaningful. Another thing that could add some interest is what was the expectation of the runners meeting those conditions
