6/1 on Betfair Sportsbook.... City to win.... City to have most corners... Cardiff most cards... seems like a great bet to me...
6:30 Kempton, Annie Law - 1pt win 11/2 Has raced against some nice types in her three races to date, and no more so than last time when finishing 6th in a race littered with useful colts, a few of which have been and franked the form since. She looked to be staying on again at the end of that 6f race so the step up to 7f looks a good move, and off an opening mark of just 58, I think she looks well handicapped to run a big race
We have one of our Ante Post bets for Cheltenham running today in Gaelic Warrior, 4.10 Leopardstown. He runs in a competitive 17 runner handicap off topweight. If he’s to be winning a Ballymore then he wants to be winning this, but at 6/4 doesn’t rate a bet. That said he’s clearly strongly fancied and can hopefully book his place at the Festival. Todays race is over 2 miles, but with the expectation of Facile Vega doing the business earlier on the card, Gaelic Warrior will surely step up in trip at Cheltenham and victory here would more than likely rule him out of any of the handicaps at the Festival. 4 Bets today, with one in the big handicap chase at Leopardstown and a couple of short priced Favs that look very solid. 1.22 Musselburgh – Afadil – 7/4 Bet365, generally 13/8 A maiden winner in France, he made his hurdles debut at Taunton a month ago and couldn’t have been more impressive. He jumps his hurdles with great fluency and didn’t come off the bridle to win by an extremely comfortable 2 lengths. The opposition wasn’t up to much, but the manner of victory was very taking. Connections are talking of the Victor Ludorum in two weeks time, then either the Triumph or Boodles; in which case he wants to be winning this. 1.40 Leopardstown – Mighty Potter – generally 5/4 He was a very good novice hurdler, winning a grade 1 here at Leopardstown on only his 3rd start, but he looks an even better chaser. Slightly fiddly on his debut, he still impressed at times and won pretty easily. His 2nd chase start last time was where he really impressed, when winning the grade 1 Drinmore at Fairyhouse. Really good over his fences, he dominated a fair field and pulled clear with the minimum of fuss to stamp himself as the leading 2 ½ novice chaser of the season so far. No reason why anything behind should reverse the form and he’ll take an awful lot of beating. 2.33 Hereford – Porter In The Park – generally 11/10 A bit of a lower grade than the Dublin Racing Festival, but Porter In The Park looks very well handicapped based on his debut in that grade just 6 days agon where he travelled like he was in a different league to his opposition and won more comfortably than the winning margin suggest. He clearly crept under the radar to get a mark of just 96 and is taken to follow up under a 7lb penalty. 2.40 Leopardstown – Indigo Breeze – generally 4/1 A pretty competitive handicap but Indigo Breeze is rightly at the head of the market and could be thrown in off a mark of 133 on what is just his 5th start over fences. A creditable 8th of 25 in the Coral Cup at Cheltenham last season, off a mark of 140, he makes his chase debut off just 133 here. Added to that his last two chase starts saw him chase home the very classy Banbridge who has subsequently won a grade 2 and been placed in two grade 1 chases, and last time Indigo Breeze was only just denied by The Real Whacker at Cheltenham, where his victor has since won in grade 2 company and is now rated 153. The figures suggest Indigo Breeze looks to have been let in very lightly here.
willie Mullins must be scratching his head.... he won pretty much everything this weekend... but in many cases the second or even third string won...
I have an account with Smarkets. Each day at 1130 they send an e mail with the three best backed horses. For long enough I didn't follow up on them. A few weeks back I noticed there were a couple of winners among them. Last weekend, Ahoy Senor, yesterday Third Time Lucki today Pay the Piper and The Goffer. Cut a long story short, I am 30 points up since following. Thought I would share them on here, and keep a running tally.
First three Fontwell 1320 West Orchard Fontwell 1320 Mr Ticketyboo Fontwell 1630 Tamaris I have been using 1 point ew and 2 point win
Very aptly named winner of the first at Wolverhampton Dodgy bob 66/1 Form Twenty six runs since last win in 2020. Tenth of 12 in handicap (40/1) at Kempton (6f) 20 days ago.
Market Rasen 1315 Escobedo Market Rasen 1345 Pearly Island Market Rasen 1415 Patient Dream Six horses 2 winners, 1 place, +4.9 points
2:30 pm Taunton - Half Dozen 6/4 (1 Point) 8:00 pm Wolverhampton - Noodle Mission 13/8 (2 Points 17:00 Taunton, Issar D'Airy 1pt win 19:00 Wolverhampton, Amber Island 0.5pt each-way @ 8.00 several bookies (4 places @ 1/5) 19:30 Wolverhampton, Amber Dew 0.5pt each-way @ 15.00 most bookies (2 places @ 1/4)
Here we go. Be lucky 4:10 pm Southwell - Vinnies Getaway 50/1 Each Way (1 Point) 18:30 Kempton, Sisters In The Sky 1pt win @ 5.50 most bookies 19:30 Kempton, Golden Mayflower 2pt win @ 2.63 generally. Golden Mayflower would prove hard to beat if she reproduces the form shown on her sole effort on this track which came over CD on only her 2nd career start. Time has subsequently shown that was a fine effort to only go down a length in 2nd place off level weights to Al Husn who won her last last two races, the latest off a mark of 92 in a 0-105 handicap, no rival in this race is remotely in that class bracket, whilst the horses that finished behind the selection, saw the 3rd place horse currently being rated 81 who had previously won her last AW start, the 4th placed horse went into that race as an unbeaten AW horse, the 5th placed runner is already rated 92 and has run since in listed company, and who was also an unbeaten winner over this CD before contesting that race and even the last placed runner, 6th of 6th (3l behind the selection) went into that unbeaten on the AW and is currently rated 74. Yet the selection is rated only 75 here, technically races off 72 with her useful 3lb claimer on board in only a 0-75 handicap, and therefore races off a 1lb lower mark than last time where she made an eyecatching run, finishing strongly close home behind and in front some horses who were going into that race in good AW form. That was her reappearance run, having been off the track for 85 days and she should come on for that effort fitness wise. She dipped below 11.2sec per furlongs for the last 3 furlongs over a mile at Lingfield last time out which according to my par charts for a 0-75 handicap over that course and distance (3615 races for the hcap grade since over that distance and at that track since 2003 so sufficient data to work with) suggests she's a bit better than her current rating and if she runs to that effort as well or her run one run over CD at Kempton, then it marks her as the one to beat in this company, hence a 2pt win recommendation advised here. 8.30 KEMPTON , BELLA COLOROSSA 1 point e/w @ 13/2 @ BET365 , CORAL ,BET VICTOR
