Transfer Rumours transfer thread fact and fiction

Summer Watch
Ben Jacobs says we're keeping tabs on Max Kilman for a potential summer move

 

Sanchez apparently has no interest in leaving.

And this was, is and will be an enormous issue. We have far too many bang average players sitting comfortably on well above average salaries who don't possess much ambition if any. Shifting them is proving to be a near impossible job and ultimately it is the price paid for years of abysmal recruitment and a patchwork squad assembled by four different managers in quick succession.

 

Sanchez has 18 months on his contract, so it's not like shifting him will be too difficult medium-term

Also, the fact Poch signed off on him in 2017 doesn't really fit the complaint of the patchwork squad - on the other hand, the fact Conte isn't using him when he'd be useful cover at both RCB (and, to a lesser degree, LCB) due to his pace and strength is an issue

 

Goons have bid £60m for Caicedo.

What we now need to do is look at who Brighton are gonna look to replace him with if they accept the offer, coz he'll probably cost less than £10m but be a £60m+ calibre baller in no time, so jump the queue and cut out the middle man to bring them in.

 

Or employ the scouts from Brighton.

 

Davinson Sanchez has been here for almost 6 years and has not developed at all in that time, he showed some brief promise under Poch but since Mourinho has been a car crash of a defender, he is as raw and error prone as when he first arrived. With 18 months left on his deal, he should be easier to shift if priced accordingly, he needs to go for the sake of his own career, Spurs need better and the French league is his level if Nice want him.

 

Sign a DM? Are you mad??? Clearly we need another three or four box-to-box CMs

...is there any way to dupe Conte into believing Enzo Le Fee is a box-to-box CM? He's the Kante-type midfielder we've needed since the summer of 2019 and has 18 months on his Lorient contract, so we'd best act fast before PSG or whoever gobble him up

 

Neither will work. Much more likely Brighton have had a lucky streak in buying players than they actually have any edge.

 

A Sevilla based news account reckon we prefer to sell Gil rather than loan him out this window.

No idea how credible they are though but similar to the recent Spence story, it’s something you can half believe based on the treatment of young players so far.

 

I think some people are better than others at assessing players and their potential. For example I think that is one of the strong points of, say, Brian Clough and Harry Redknapp. From the performance of Brighton in recent years where they have arguably delivered above their 'station' it suggests that someone on the south coast knows what they are doing.
If it was just luck then clubs like Sunderland or Burnley would win the league occasionally.

 

Thinking about it I should have said Peter Taylor because Clough credited him with that skill. Clough made the players Taylor found into a team.

 

I have to say I'm very impressed at Woolwich's ambition and determination to back Arteta. Let's not forget, this was the man who barely 6 months ago huge swathes of gooner fans would've sacked immediately.

Caicedo looks a talent but once again, similar to the Gordon links...£60m for a player with 2/3rds of a PL season under his belt is a huge gamble imo. Cucurella moved for similar money and slightly more PL experience and he is really struggling at Chelsea. Although Ben White (ironically) disproves this theory as after a shaky first season there he's starting to look value for money.

 

So true. There is always 'something' preventing us from just acting boldly and decisively.

 

Not sure I agreethat a club buying players that the coach can work with and fit into the philosophy and ethics of the team is a matter of luck tbh.

 

Yeah have to give them credit for how they're going about things. They look sickeningly good too, whether their board or even Arteta himself expected to be having such a good season or not is up for debate but they're taking full advantage of it.

I think Caicedo looks brilliant to be fair, looking a very complete midfielder and wouldn't insult him by putting Gordon in the same sentence, the latter looks like every bog standard winger just about every Premier League team has in their academy. If we threw Mundle or Mathurin into the XI for a run of games I think they'd look easily as good.

As for Cucurella, he was another I was never convinced of and was surprised at the levels of interest in him from City and then Chelsea, some on here wanted him over Reguilon too and I just didn't see what it was they saw in him. Barca rarely make mistakes with their young players and not only did they sell him to Getafe for peanuts, they chose not to activate their buy back clause which was also peanuts. Brighton laughed to the bank getting £60m for him after one season in my opinion, especially as I think Estupinan looks considerably better - we were ironically linked with him before they signed him too.

 

Romano saying Gil is Sevilla’s number one priority, so looks like the story has substance.

 

I like the look of Caicedo, but he's played 26 Premier League games. Brighton clearly see a lot of potential in him, and maybe believe they can fetch more money for him. However, if they're rejecting bids of £60m, and are (reportedly) looking for closer to £80m, I think it's best if we walk away personally. Not least because Chelsea's interest means they're just going to offer another excessive lucrative contract and transfer fee that we won't be able to compete with.

I'm not optimistic that we'll get this deal over the line, so I'm hoping we have some other options in the (likely) event he doesn't join us.

 

Leicester did! It certainly isn't just luck and I agree with you that there may be individuals with skill in identifying undervalued players. The problem is in identifying those individuals. Because say there are 1032 scouts in the world and 8 of them have a lot of skill. After one year 512 of the unskilled scouts will have an above average record, after two years 256 will etc. So you need to look at the record for 7 years before the number of scouts that have skill even matches the number who have done well by luck. In practice the situation is probably worse because even the scouts with skill will mess up occasionally and look more like the unskilled ones in the dataset.
This is a general problem in identifying skill that doesn't just apply to football. For example there are thousands of investment companies that run funds. If there are 8000 and none has any skill then by chance 8 of them will outperform the market for 10 consecutive years. There is actually almost no evidence that stockpickers in the US market have any skill at all in the long run.

 

That might be true but Brighton have none of our coach, our philosophy or our ethics so their player selection process still wouldn't be transferable.

 

Couple reports saying we’re monitoring Montpellier striker, Elye Wahi.

Pointless signing, he’s under 23 so won’t get a minute of game time here at the moment.