At the risk of sounding like Ian I'm reading a good novel on the Russian civil war at the minute I agree though that that's a big concern.
I enjoyed your post, and I fully agree. The big problem is the psychopaths that run the world and give zero value to other human lives. It’s disgusting. Our “leaders” in the West are extremely guilty of it and as a few have mentioned, the hypocrisy around Ukraine is sickening.
Absolutely this, I don’t think we have to pretend the intentions of Western Countries are heroic or whiter than white much of the time, but NATO are 100% justified in arming Ukraine in this scenario, Russia must lose this war for the good of firstly Ukraine, but also the rest of Europe. Anyone who doesn’t believe Putins Russia is a very real threat to the U.K. hasn’t been paying attention.
Indeed, the US has been getting involved in Ukrainian politics for decades and I believe began sending Ukraine military aid in 1991 despite the promises made by Bush Sr to Gorbachev. US diplomats have been warning of the risks of NATO expansion for at least 25 years. At one point I think Joe Biden himself spoke against admitting the Baltic States into NATO. A former Canadian ambassador to Russia has spoken of how liberal Russian politicians "begged" him to try and convince the Canadian government to oppose NATO expansion. It also seems likely the US were involved in 2014 when the democratically elected President of Ukraine was violently overthrown. Even this year Robert Kagan (who's married to Victoria Nuland who works in the US State department) wrote "While it would be obscene to blame the US for Putin’s inhumane attack on Ukraine, to insist that the invasion was entirely unprovoked is misleading." It's less important but the portrayal of Ukraine as whiter than white is also a bit off. It's a deeply corrupt country - in 2015 the Guardian called Ukraine "the most corrupt country in Europe" and in 2021 it was ranked 122 out of 180 countries worldwide on the Corruption Perceptions Index - that's nowhere near being a liberal democratic state. None of which justifies Russia invading Ukraine of course. But as others have said, when it comes to international politics right and wrong pale in comparison to national interests. Russia is a regional power and - like it or not - will influence its neighbours. Ask yourself what the USA would do if Quebec voted to leave Canada and then (after a violent revolution openly supported by Chinese diplomats and politicians) signed a massive trade deal with China before announcing it was planning to enter into a military alliance with China and that Chinese missile launchers would be based in Quebec for "defensive purposes". I'm sure they wouldn't react at all.
How so? Russia has nuclear weapons of course but that won't change if Ukraine win. Their conventional forces were shown up quite quickly when the invasion began and it's pretty clear there's no way they could successfully invade a NATO country. And what does Russia "losing the war" mean? Ukraine pushing them back and re-establishing its 2021 borders? Ukraine retaking Crimea? With a good portion of the country in ruins what happens after Ukraine's 'victory'?
Dominic Raab is facing, allegedly, 24 (maybe as many as 30) formal accusations of bullying civil servants, working under him. As far as I am aware he has not been suspended, pending investigation which must mean that he is free to walk through the offices containing complainants, who might feel intimidated by his presence. Maybe I am out of touch but is it not routine in most workplaces to suspend someone, pending investigation, for such major issues?
Once the war is eventually over, Ukraine will be fast tracked into EU membership, which will bring a lot of economic benefits. Probably NATO membership too, which changes the game as far as any future Russian involvement goes. Long term, though, the only way to secure peace in Europe will be not to punish Russia but to engage with her economically and politically, as well as re-establishing all the cultural and sporting relationships that existed prior to the invasion. It’s way too soon to think about it, but the possibility of a post-Putin Russia being admitted to the EU can’t be completely off the table at some point. It’s essentially no more unthinkable than Poland or Romania being accepted would have been back in the early 1990’s.
This is an extremely important point that can't be emphasised enough imo. There's a reason that (West)Germany received the 3rd highest amount of funding from the Marshall plan post WWII, and that's because the allies realised that the treaty of Versailles was an utter failure and helped lay the groundwork for Hitler's rise to power.
I listened to loads of podcasts discussing Russia around this time last year when this first started. There was talk of western economic support after the collapse of the USSR. But I simply cannot remember whether it was the west refusing to offer economic support or Russia refusing to take it. I appreciate they are opposite ends of the spectrum. I think it was that the west didn’t offer what they could have done but am not certain
How does the war end though? At what point would Putin use battlefield nuclear weapons for example? Why is virtually nobody urging peace talks? I broadly agree with your second paragraph, although I suspect Ukraine joining the EU will be much harder than you seem to. Exactly. I doubt Russia will ever join the EU but this sort of thing is what should have happened 30-odd years ago. Instead the US adopted the Wolfowitz Doctrine, the main idea of which is that the US couldn't risk the rise of a rival superpower. They feared a resurgent Russia could prove to be a rival and so they've been undermining them ever since and expanding NATO to the Russian border.
Under the current regime we have had multiple chemical attacks on British soil. They have also interfered in our democratic processes. Also if Russia absorbs Ukraine it brings the possibility of further war in Europe that bit closer and the more war in continental Europe the greater the possibility of nukes being used. I’d say realistically restoring the 2021 borders is the minimum, but Ukraine would be entitled to push on into Crimea, I’m just not sure the appetite will be there to support them as far with that one. There shouldn’t be any encroachment into Russia (pre 2014 borders), but rehabilitation and reintegration of Russia into the World economy is important, with the caveat that continental Europe (Germany most of all) should not let itself become reliant on Russia in the way it was before.
https://nsarchive.gwu.edu/briefing-...on-what-gorbachev-heard-western-leaders-early I stand corrected, it was assurances made by secretary of state James Baker, for example that made me type that out. Not an agreement. "I put the following question to (Gorbachev)," Baker recounted in a letter to German Chancellor Helmut Kohl. "‘Would you prefer to see a united Germany outside of NATO, independent and with no U.S. forces, or would you prefer a unified Germany to be tied to NATO, with assurances that NATO’s jurisdiction would not shift one inch eastward from its present position?’" Thanks for pointing this out, it's good to be specific.
Try discussing what I've said rather than inventing viewpoints for me. Strawman arguments don't interest me at all. Vin
Do you have a link to any documentation of this agreement? It's certainly received wisdom that such an agreement existed but despite a hefty search I'm unable to find any evidence for it other than people claiming it was agreed. In fact, the only concrete comments I can find are that no formal agreement ever existed. I may be wrong so I'm open to clarification but I've genuinely looked hard. There's a very good (long) article here: https://nsarchive.gwu.edu/briefing-...on-what-gorbachev-heard-western-leaders-early There's also the question, as always, of whether small states are accepted as having agency. Everyone who has joined NATO has asked to join. All of them are pesky old democracies that have chosen to apply. Not one of them has been forced to join. Vin [EDIT: Sorry, hadn't seen this addressed above when I answered]
I agree. However, that has rather been tried since the USSR broke up. Unfortunately, the spoils of economic co-operation ended up in the pockets of Putin and his supportive kleptocrats. There's evidence that Putin is worth $1Tn. If like is replaced with like, there's no point reopening economic co-operation. If someone comes in who is not prepared to improve the lives of people at the bottom of Russian society nothing will change, as they'll have to reply on nationalism and militarism to keep the populace quiet. There was talk of offering EU membership to Russia years ago but it would have made stealing on a grand scale far too difficult so no progress resulted. An excellent guide to Russia's kleptocratic regime (though it's not for the fainthearted as it's a long, detailed read*) is Putin's People by Catherine Belton. Most dictators eliminate rivals by killing them or exiling them. Putin just made them wealthy beyond belief (with a fall from an 8th floor window as a last resort if they weren't content with all the money) I sincerely hope Putin can be replaced with someone keen on democracy and fighting corruption but I won't hold my breath, given that more than one of Putin's kleptocrats run private armies. This is a long-term problem, IMO. Vin *Seriously, think hard before embarking on it, as your eyes will be bleeding by the end of it - mine were
Russia is a mafia run state with no interest in world peace and an over inflated sense of its own place in the world. It is a failed state held together by plasters and run through fear. Say what you want with some of your conspiracy theory stuff here but NATO is an alliance designed to reduce the threat of a third world war. There is no clever manoeuvre to FORCE Russia into what it did. Russia works by bullying and explansion. It is the only trick that keeps the local shopkeepers paying the protection racket. Forget whiteness. Forget democracy. Forget corruption. Only a complete fool would allow a criminal to steal a part of his garden without calling the police. We want Ukraine to be the garden fence because if we let these lunatics move any close it is bad for European unity. Russia is nobody’s friend. Russia is also no friend of its own people.
