TopC: I understand what you mean BUT the response has been very good and from a varied number of posters so i really would not worry mate. The NH enthusiasts on here will talk about 'decent' racing and horses all day long without getting bored. Go for it mate is my opinion
Okay guys, I'll get to work on that and it should be ready for Friday afternoon. With Quito De La Roque having 'concerns' regarding good ground, do you think that could affect any potential participation at Cheltenham, or do you think his Aintree victory on good ground would have satisfied his trainer and connections enough to take their chance?
As things stand Gigginstown House Stud look to have two tasty Gold Cup prospects on their hands, namely Quito de la Roque and Weapon's Amensty so their in a very strong position. Considering how open the Gold Cup looks on paper, it looks very much 'wait and see' as to what their plans are with both. Do they see WA as their number one hope? As he has C&D form winning the RSA in 2010, (dealing with Long Run with ease also) I would suggest on paper he looks to be. In fact Weapon's Amensty possibly looks the staying chaser to beat this season and I'm not even sure Long Run can turn the tables on him. With this in mind then QdeLR may be sent on another mission. Good ground will not worry him at all, and in fact if they decide to wait for Aintree with him the ground will likely be even firmer then than it will at Cheltenham. Wait and see for a few months!
Okay, so we finally get the chance to re-visit one of the episodes after Quito De La Roque made his seasonal appearance at Down Royal on Saturday. This was one of the key features of running a 'Spotlight' series for me, in that the thread has an opportunity to develop alongside the horse as it runs and progresses through the season. I think a lot of our discussion points were all bought to light together in just one race! We saw his stamina, his will to win, and his generally solid jumping. Clearly he has absolutely bundles of stamina and in a close finish, he's awesome. At the same time however, he looked badly outpaced by Sizing Europe and The Nightingale, which suggests to me he could struggle against Long Run and perhaps on-song Kauto Star. Those who think he will be short of pace to win a Gold Cup will probably feel fully justified in their analysis, and simulataneously those who feel his stamina puts him bang in the mix could arguably feel the same. One thing is for sure though, you can't fault the horse or his attitude. Absolutely fantastic consistency, and that was some effort for his reappearance. There are more questions to answer, but he confirmed himself a deserving entrant to the upper echelons of 3m+ NH Hunt racing, and will answer our questions fully in the coming months.
As my Shoo in followers will know, I tipped this horse up on each of his victorys last season, and i was on him again on Saturday, so i am a massive fan of his. He is a very good horse, he handles all sorts of ground, stays well, and jumps like a stag. I believe last seasons novices from Ireland are a very strong bunch, and Quito De La Roque is arguably the best. I'm still not entirely convinced he is up to competing with Long Run, but I would place him fairly high up the Gold Cup pecking order. The biggest worry for me though, is that he's never been to Cheltenham, as we all know course form is vital at the festival, and I'm not sure I'd be prepared to back a horse in the Gold Cup, that's never seen the track
I was with Sizing on Sat but I've watched the race again a couple of times and the outcome makes much more sense to me now than it it did at the time. Getting outpaced by the reigning Champion Chaser isn't a shock and I hadn't given enough attention to the fact that SE was 0-2 when tried at distances over 2m 4f, SE was always going to be traveling well a mile out but 3m in heavy was always going to stretch his stamina, I incorrectly thought the small field and testing conditions might make it a falsely run affair with SE speed telling at the end of the race. The fact QDLR appeared to be struggling just emphasises the pace SE had injected a long way out, the fact he stopped so quickly I think is more down to fatigue than the fact he got lonely out in front which was my original reading. But I guess if we had the benefit of hindsight for every race that's run none of us would ever have a losing bet ! SE looks to be a Ryanair horse to me, can't genuinely stay 3m+ in a true race but has the gears to put a race a race to bed quite quickly...
Toppy, i think you have it bang on. My opinion hasn't changed but i doubt those who think he can win a GC have changed theirs either. To me he still looks all stamina and was a fortunate winner at the w/e. If either of the first two had seen it out then he'd have been beaten fairly comfortably. I still don't see him as a GC contender (for the win) but he is clearly worth his place in the top races. On goodish ground, as it's likely to be at the Festival, i can't see him being able to stay with them when they quicken it up at the top of the hill. Even Long Run was outpaced at this stage last year and think Quito De La Roque will find it impossible to stay with them. There's no doubt that he'll surely be staying on up the hill but i suspect it will all be too late and he won't be able to catch the leaders. He has reasonably solid place (3rd, 4th, 5th or similar) prospects but i can't see him winning. Shergar, would you not say that the Cheltenham factor is slightly overplayed? We all saw Hurricane Fly last year win the Champion Hurdle having never seen the track before. And, every horse that runs there must meet the track for the first time at some stage! My theory is that the horses that win the top races are the very best ones. Because all the very best races are at Cheltenham, all the very best horses usually have form at the track from an early age. However, i would be wary of ruling out a horse that had yet to face the track for valid reasons. For example, the Hurricane was injured and never made the Festival as a novice. I am not necessarily saying that this is the case with QDLR because he bypassed the Festival out of choice (i think). Just a thought but I think it is an interesting suggestion because i often think the 'must have Cheltenham form' card, whilst clearly valid, is sometimes overplayed.
I agree to a certain extent Grizzly, but The Nightingale was still able to keep tabs on Sizing Europe when the pace quickened. I think this is the crucial point. In the Gold Cup there are likely to be horses that can quicken like that but will not fall in a heap at the finish. On a side not, Sarando, the horse QDLR beat by a neck at Aintree, runs in the Graduation Chase at Carlisle at 2.55 this afternoon.
Zen.....Festival form to me is a big thing, particularly over fences. It is an incredibly difficult track to get into a jumping rythm on, because of the undulating nature of it. The Hurdles track although still difficult, is not anywhere near as difficult as the chase course. Look at Sizing Europe and Albertas Run last year, they had run like donkeys all season but come the festival they produced the goods . I don't think I can think of any Gold Cup winners, who had never ran in a race over fences at Cheltenham before the Gold Cup. I'm not saying QDLR cant win, I'm just suggesting it's not going to be easy with no Cheltenham experience
That is exactly my point. Gold Cup winners, by definition, are the best horses around. They therefore run in the best races which are all held at Cheltenham. It is therefore almost inevitable that they will have run at the Cheltenham Festival before they appear in the Gold Cup, most likely in a novice championship. My point is that just because most of them have, it doesn't necessarily mean that it is an essential requirement. It is a rare thing that this is missing from a potential GC contender's CV but i am wary of writing one off because of it. I would think that at least 90% of all GC runners have run at Cheltenham before the GC. Do you see what i mean? It might be a bit of a 'chicken and egg' scenario. I'm probably just arguing myself round in circles!
I do see what your saying Zen, but I still think the lack of a Cheltenham run is a negative. Either way I realy struggle to see him getting near Long Run, Kauto Star beat Sizing Europe more convincingly last season, and we all seen what Long Run did to him on 2 occasions. As long as Long Run is fit and well I feel he is difficult to oppose. There is one novice from last year, that i feel could have the class to put it up to Long Run, and that's Noble Prince, the further he has gone in trip the better he has got, and I feel the Gold Cup trip would be ideal. He goes in the Paddy Power Gold Cup, off around 160(I think) and I'd expect him to bolt up there
That is interesting. I can't say i'd really thought of Noble Prince as a Gold Cup contender. I always had the Ryanair in mind but i suppose the step up in trip is perfectly possible. It will be interesting to see which route they take. I agree with you that he would have every chance if taking in the Paddy Power and I think connections will have missed an opportunity if they bypass the engagement. I haven't had a detailed look at the race as yet but he'd certainly be one for the shortlist.
I have always been of the opinion that Noble Prince was the best novice from last year, look what he did to Wishfull Thinking in the Jewson, and then WF bolted up at Aintree, and then won a tough handicap at Punchestown, conceeding lumps of weight to the whole field. Noble Prince went to the Powers Gold Cup after the Jewson, and he was cruising all over Realt Dubh, and had the race at his mercy, before making an error and tipping over 2 out. But even in that loss you could see how much class he had. For me the Ryanair isn't a race you target with a horse of his ability, he improved loads for the step up from 2 to 2m4, so I'm hopeful he will improve again over 3m+. We will see though, if he bolts up in the Paddy Power, which I believe he will, then I would hope connections would then try the Lexus or KG
I do think the Hobbs team were of the opinion that Wishful Thinking was at his best round Aintree. The fact that he can race keenly didn't hinder him at all round Aintree's tight flat track and he fairly bolted up. If both turn up in the Paddy Power that should give a fairly reliable guide as to where they stand against each other. I can see what you mean with the Ryanair. I suppose it is the race for horse who can't stay for the Gold Cup but are too slow for the Champion Chase. But i do still think it's a very good race in it's own right and i would far rather win the Ryanair than finish 5th/6th in a Gold Cup or Champion Chase.
And the case for QDLR as a Gold Cup contender strengthens as this one duly bolts up by 11 lengths. Interestingly the bookmakers have cut QDLR across the board ranging from 10s to a standout 20-1. Generally third favourite for the Blue Riband now. Perhaps they don't read Not606 He didn't travel fantastically on Saturday but he won a Grade One race in his first run of the season! Rewind 12 months ago and there would have people sectioning you for suggesting Long Run would win the Gold Cup after his 3rd place in a handicap at Cheltenham on his seasonal bow....
Not specific to QDLR but I must say I am getting more and more impressed by the Gigginstown Stud operation. Whilst I hate Ryanair I have to acknowledge that Michael O'Leary appears to be a very shrewd operator in the horse racing business. He obviously realised that he couldn't challenge the might of the Coolemore operation on the flat but he is building a growingly impressive team of National Hunt horses which is cleverly being spread among the top trainers in Ireland. Sir Des Champs with Mullins, QDLR with Colm Murphy, First Lieutenant with Mouse Morris and Sword Of Destiny with Noel Meade to name but a few. This seems to be much more co-ordinated than J P McManus or Andy Stewart, O'Leary seems intent on breeding not just owning, and is already reaping impressive results. I wouldn't be surprised to see the Gigginstown colours in the winners enclosure on several occaisions come Cheltenham in March.
When you think about it, this year poses quite a problem for both aspiring hurdlers and chasers. Many of them seem to have good form at two miles -or even better at 20 furlongs. Yet what do they do? Do the hurdlers stay at two miles and have the dubious pleasure of trying to topple Hurricane Fly? Spirit Son, Oscar's Well, Oscar Whisky, Grandouet, The Real Article, Thousand Stars..would all come into this category. Or do they step up to three miles and cross swords with one of the finest stayers of all time in Big Bucks? It's a real quandary, especially for Oscar Whisky and Oscar's Well - which seem ideally suited by a step up in trip. The chasers have a difficult poser as well. Do Sizing Europe, Finian's Rainbow, Captain Chris, Master Minded, Noble Prince, Wishful Thinking, etc, go down the two mile route- or do they step up to three miles with a view to testing their stamina and challenging Long Run for the Gold Cup? Yes, the odd one may follow Alberta's Run to the Ryanair, but two and a half miles is really no-man's land for a top chaser, wouldn't you say? Many of these are in the same position that old Fortria was in the early sixties ie. top class at 2-2.5 miles, but then unlucky to come across Mandarin and Mill House in separate Gold Cups. Which of these horses would you step up to three miles? Personally I'd have a go with Captain Chris in the King George and step Oscar Whisky up to three miles, although I think the former has much the better prospects!
Absolutely agree with you there. If Captain Chris doesn't take his chance in the King George i will be devastated/livid/bemused/shocked and a little poorer. He is crying out for 3 miles in my opinion and i hope that the Hobbs team let him run. I think Finian's Rainbow is an out and out 2 miler and i think he might be my idea of the Champion Chaser at this stage. That said, it's not a race i have a particularly strong opinion about. Definitely think he is a 2 miler though. I think Wishful Thinking is one for either the Champion Chase or Ryanair because Dickie Johnson voiced serious stamina concerns regarding this one in an ATR interview. He seemed almost bullish about Captain Chris getting 3m but doubtful with regard to Wishful Thinking. With both Long Run and Hurricane FLy sitting fairly pretty on their perches it is easy to look for ways to avoid them. At the end of the day i think connections just need to take the decision that suits and benefits their horse best. If they get beaten by a proper champion then there is no shame in that. I think it would be preferable to trying to force a 2 miler to stay 3 miles (Sizing Europe) or a 3 miler to go over 2 miles (Captain Chris). A lot of imponderables at the start of this season, that is for sure. I think it's going to be very interesting.
I would love to see Captain Chris run in the King George. However another horse with similar profile who has been on my radar for some time now is Somersby. I think he will make the frame in the King George. Some people will think that's a ludicrous claim, but I think he's classy and has been running so well over 2m despite, in my opinion, needing much further. If we get Captain Chris and Somersby in the King George, and perhaps Sizing Europe, we might have a top race on our hands.
