Thursday's Meetings Wolverhampton A/W 7 Races 12:45-3:45p.m. Ffos Las N/H 7 Races 1:00-4:00p.m. Chelmsford(E) A/W 7 Races 5:30-8:30p.m. Racecards At The Races Sporting Life Racing Post Good Luck
SMART CASUAL 100/30 Ffos Las 4.00 Bred to do the job, dam was a bumper winner for the same connections and a half sister to Master Tommytucker.Interesting that this one has turned up with the same very eyecatching connections. Taken to beat the two nice penalised runners. Strong market vibes would be very interesting but I am not waiting to see how any of the others chalk it up.
Whoever Mr R E R Williams is, he seems keen to win this race with 3 entered, all trained by Evan Williams (a relation I assume?) Meanwhile the Twister runs another horse named after a Porridge character - Norman Fletcher. Mr Mackay ran at Cheltenham the other day. I can't wait for Lennie Godber . Sergeant Wilson and Cuthbert Dibble have also been recent runners for the yard
Ffos Las 15.30. I see Hey Bud and Dentley De Mee are JF at 5/2 I suspect the latter will appreciate the trip and heavy ground more so than the former. May have won last time out over C&D but for being hampered, thereby escaping a penalty. Charlie Deutsch/Miss V Williams combination another advantage. I think the 5/2 Dentley De Mee is good value and any price above that is a bonus PS that last run was after a lay off of 593 days, which is another plus. 5/2 looking even juicier
I've put SMART CASUAL and DENTLEY DE MEE in a double. Sort code and account number sent by PM so you can refund me if it goes down. Thanks.
It’s an old wives tale, but I stand by it. That horse will have been primed for the moment on its return, i’m not sure how much it will have taken out of him.
Ffos Las 13,30 Prime Pretender 7/1 e/w bet365 three places, 13/2 others 15,30 Tudors Treasure 9/1 e/w three places, sky 17/2 four places
Ok, cranked the numbers. These are for horses who have had a year off prior to their last race (since 1997) Run back within 30 days - 7% strike rate Run back between 30 and 61 days - 7% strike rate Over 61 days - 7% strike rate All of which are well above the Winners against Market Expectation value. Which shows you don't really want to back a horse on their second run after injury.
Two more snippets today Nigel Twiston Davies training for Mr N A Twiston Davies, first time out in bumpers, 124 runners 28 winners. +7.91 winners against market expectation. ROI of +59% BSP and +41 to SP Norman Fletcher fits the bill for that. His half brother Super Six also fitted the bill when he won on debut for same connections, as did a certain Blaklion when he debuted at this course. --------- Ben Pauling with runners after over 365 days off 52 runners 8 winners. +3 winners against market expectation. ROI +75% BSP and +50%SP. HOWEVER Ben Pauling with horses 365 days or more off... and first run over fences. 9 runners 4 winners. +325% ROI BSP and +261.11 ROI SP Today he runs Bobby Bow in the 14:00
Plenty of love for Norman Fletcher this morning. From 13/2 overnight he is now a general 4/1 shot. Clear fav is now Sole Solution (9/4 into 15/8) and there is an each-way nibble for King Codi. Might all change when they enter the parade ring though
