as we all know thanks to adrian newey and his team of aerodynamists red bull have been highly competitive for the last two seasons due in no small part to there flexi layered carbon fibre trickery pokery and the fact they reinvented the exaust blown diffuser that renault first thought of back in the early 80s - as we also know the other teams especially mclaren copied and caught red bull up , the question is now the exhaust blown diffuser has been banned and the rules seem fairly stable for 2012 will newey and his team be able to conjure up any more groundbreaking ideas or will the stabilty of the rules now enable the likes of ferrari and mercedes to start the 2012 on a level playing field with red bull and mclaren - there is maybe only so many new innovations that newey and his team can dream up under the present rules , if this is indeed the case i suspect red bulls lack of engine BHP with the renault unit may come back to haunt them for the next couple of years until the engine regulations change - i may be way of base with this one after all who knows what kind of black magic newey and his team have been conjuring up for 2012 - ------------ its a tricky one and i dont have a clue which way it will turn out for red bull in 2012 --
I expect another year of Red Bull/Vettel domination unless they scrap their car and make a **** new one.
I can see ferrari replacing Mclaren as the team to chase red bull next year. They seem to have some tricks up their sleeves and obviously are used to winning. 2012 is still red bulls to loose though in my opinion.
As Martin Brundle said, all it takes is a double diffuser type design and teams will have a successful season.
you never know with ferrari bright , they would seem to have strengthened there design team for 2012 with the addition of pat fry , they also have solved there wind tunnel to track correlation problems that have plagued them this year , they also probally have the most complete driver of the modern era to hustle there machine down the road - you just get the feeling they are never going to be strong as they were in the rory byrne era and are allways going to drop the ball in certain aspects of there car every year ---
As Silverstone 2011 like regulations are in place in 2012, then Ferrari look like they might be in good shape. However, that was a while ago, and Red Bull have had plenty of time to work on things for 2012. I don't think that they've really needed to work on the aspects of the 2011 car that are being banned in 2012, so I think that they've have time to adapt their car to the new regs. They surprised everyone (including themselves, if you believe what you hear on the F1 forum) with their pace on the previously McLaren dominated high speed circuits like Monza. As such, I think that they'll probably still be the team to beat in 2012, but with Ferrari and McLaren being much closer to each other and Red Bull. That might be wishful thinking though.
Ferrari have found the way to have a legal flexing wing so that can be perfected over the winter, and having a designer who made the f1 rules will be a cheeky bonus.
I've got a feeling Ferrari will be the ones to beat next season because they appear to know how to make a flexi wing. Plus they're the only top team who are not utilising the rear blow diffuser like Red Bull and McLaren, Remember Silverstone.
I think this is an interesting question, but I cannot see much of a decline; at least until 2013. This is because 2012's regulation changes are relatively minor, allowing all teams to continue to evolve their concepts. That said, there is a tendency for a closing of any gaps if there are fewer regulation changes, because a less evolved concept has the capacity to make greater changes than one which is approaching 'perfection'. In this regard, few would argue that Red Bull is not already the most evolved concept, so it seems reasonable to expect others to close up - at least, to some extent. But there is another factor which I believe is significant: Red Bull's advantage this season has allowed them to start their 2012 design campaign earlier than other leading teams, which I think will see them retain the best car, at least for the first few races of next year.
think you will find the fia has resigned the blown diffuser to the crapper next year matt , a shame they didnt do the same with the DRS but that is another story - pat fry has promised a radical ferrari for next year and if massa is still there ferrari will introduce team orders again so it is more than possible that the mecurial alonso can give vettel a severe fright next year - however ----- you cannot discount newey and his team of whizz kids producing some kind of jiggery pokery on the RB8 that will take the others a few races to replicate --
Thats my point, Red Bull and McLaren have a lot of down-force to find with this ban whereas Ferrari don't because they're not using the BD to such an extent. I picture an Alonso v Seb fight next year, not what I want but fun nevertheless.
you might have a point there matt , ferrari did hot blow there diffuser as did the others , i think it was the cold blowing ( when the drivers were off the throttle ) that ferrari were not exactly on top of -- with the whole lot banned for next year i cant really see ferrari having an advantage in that respect alone as the other big teams would of had there 2012 designs on the drawing board probally after spa or just after ---
Newey is a great designer, but I think he's overrated. His early Red Bull's were unreliable and midfield at best. His recent success was down to the rule changes - and 2009 could have been very different if McLaren and Ferrari weren't so focused on KERS. Anyway, Newey brought many good things to the RB5 like the high nose, tight rear end, pull-rod rear suspension - but other teams have copied those concepts, and imo Newey can only stay ahead with new innovations. Aerodynamically, the RB6 and RB7 are still great cars, but their biggest strength was the exploitation of exhaust gasses to create downforce. In that sense, you could call it a one-trick pony. When that get's banned next year, Newey is going to be lost. There is only so many innovations you can think of, and as each year passes with a similar set of rules, it becomes a lot harder to think of new innovative ideas. You can't rely on Newey to find the next big F1 must-have - after all, he didn't think of the double diffuser. The RB8 will be good but my current bet is on Ferrari for best car next year.
The BHP defecit is less than 2.5% (from here, though note that the 2.5% figure is the Merc engine vs the Toyota, not Renault), so it could be as little as 15bhp less. Their main power worry will be in the KERS department, which I belive had only 2/3 the power of the other units, so around 30bhp less than the Merc. Besides, Renault is constantly praised for their very usable engine, and crucially it is the most fuel effiecient engine on the grid, which probably goes someway to explain Vettel's strong pace in the first few laps in many races this year. As for Red Bull being crippled by the lack of blown diffusers, Silverstone paints a slightly different picture with Mclaren seemingly much more effected. Having said that, ferrari were very strong in Silverstone, so my money is on Alonso for next year, even if Red Bull is still the faster car. His first Red Bull was the 2007 RB3. Quite quick, quicker than the previous years car despite the weaker Renault engine. The RB4 was even better (but finished lower in the standings than in 2007 due to Toro Rosso being the better car and Mclaren were excluded from the 2007 championship). Remember that it was essentially a Ferrari engined RB4 that won at Monza that year, both Toro Rosso and Red Bull were fast in 2008. It was, however, the aerodynamic, and to an extent the engine changes in 2009 that gave them the break they needed, they have been the fastest car on almost every circuit since the 3rd race of 2009.
I don't think the BD ban is going to hurt Red Bull too much, they've been planning for it for a long while, and Newey's comments about the new car seem ominous. I fully expect Vettel to stick it on pole in Melbourne, and in a quicker time than this year!
Perhaps performance differences will show up more clearly on the differing nature of certain circuits?
Well considering the Ferrari wasn't designed around the BD it would be obvious that they would be the least affected and quicker car Where as the RB7 was designed around the BD but yet at as Silverstone showed, was near enough on equal footing with the Ferrari. Since now knowing it will be banned for a fair while now, do we really think RBR won't be able to design a fast car that doesn't include a BD when it isn't built around it? It means with a handicap on their design they can still fight Ferrari.
