I think it's more that they came to the conclusion that the marginal benefit of someone like Ben Brereton Diaz over our current strikers was fairly limited, and did not justify the expense, but a Ramos or Gakpo (even at double the price) represented significant upgrades that would be worth it. I'm inclined to agree. Here are all the strikers to transfer for between 12-25m (per Transfermarkt) in this past window, and what they have done: Maupay - 1 goal in 10 PL appearances. PEA (who wouldn't have been available owing to wages anyway) - 1 goal in 6 appearances. Awoniyi - 3 goals in 13 appearances. Dennis - 1 goal in 9 appearances. Kalajdzic - 0 goals in 1 appearance (crocked). Hwang - 0 goals in 11 appearances. And while we're at it, those that fit the bill from the year previous: Weghorst - 2 goals in 20 appearances (since loaned out). Edouard - 9 goals in 41 appearances. Alvarez - 3 goals in 12 appearances. Ronaldo - lol. And the year before that: Augustin - 0 goals in 3 appearances totaling 49 minutes (he has imploded so badly in recent years that I completely forgot that Leeds bought him, for £20m assuming they keep losing court cases, until making this list). Callum Wilson - 26 goals in 55 appearances. Brewster - 0 goals in 27 appearances. Karlan Grant, a player whose first name I'm including because there's a 0% chance anyone would remember him if I just wrote 'Grant', myself included - 1 goal in 21 appearances. I count 11 strikers that moved during the past three years in that middle ground that would have been potentially available for Saints. Of those, 1 has been a success: Callum Wilson. 1 has been okayish: Edouard. Jury's still out on a couple of the signings this year, and there are at least five that have been utter calamities. The team in recent years that has done the best job of acquiring such strikers? Probably us, the more I look at it. Ings was good, and Che's decent. They're in the upper tier in terms of production. Given that success rate, it's not damning at all to suggest that our scouting team might be unable to find a striker that is i) good, ii) in their prime years, iii) moderately-priced, and iv) wants to join Saints. Those players are exceptionally difficult to find, and more money is wasted in the pursuit of such a unicorn than just about any type of player. There are a couple names on that list -- Odd Edward and Dennis -- that I wanted at the time, but I can't say that their absence is keenly felt after seeing them in action. If we want good strikers, history suggests that we either need to i) buy young and develop them, ii) spend a shedload of cash (still no guarantee), or iii) win the striker lottery. A lot of teams gamble on the latter, and most lose big. I can see why we weren't that interested in spinning the wheel ourselves.
Yes I appreciate it isn’t easy but the phrase “if you don’t buy a ticket you don’t win the lottery” springs to mind. As stated earlier everyone knew we were poor at scoring goals with the current options. We didn’t address this with a *insert any name on your list* type signing, we took a different kind of risk by not signing that sort of player, you can argue either way which approach you favour. Both are ultimately risky, like a lot of decision making is in high level sport. If you cba (because I can’t so no worries if not) I’d be interested in the players in the 0-25m range for the last 3 years. I’ve felt for awhile now that that “20 goal a season” striker is a thing of the past for the vast majority of teams, something around the 15 mark is a very decent return for a non top 6 side
Off the top of my head some strikers who have moved reasonably recently (last 3/4 years I’d guess?) you haven’t mentioned who have done alright Toney, Bamford, Wood (to Newcastle), Watkins, Daka Sure Toney and Bamford moved when Leeds and Brentford were in the Championship but both were relatively proven/well known when they moved, and have been able to make the step up.
I might try at some point, because my brain doesn't allow me to not find out the answers to these questions once asked. Will likely depend on whether I can figure out a way to dump it to Excel and sort it efficiently, because manually compiling it would be a massive chore. And 15 is a great return. For a club below the top 6, I'd consider an 8 goal striker to be at least an okay return, 12 or more to be successful, and 15 means you've done exceptionally well. Vardy (at exactly 15) was the only non-top-6 player to reach that threshold last year, though there are a few with a good shot this season. The problem is that if fewer than 2 in 5 or something strikers in that range are good value (and at a glance, it looks like much less than that), you are now spending an obscene amount of money on strikers over time. As with most lottery tickets, the most likely result is that you'll gradually get poorer and poorer. Is targeting pre-breakout players available for less money better value, or targeting higher-end players that cost much more? I don't know, I'd have to run some numbers. But I suspect that our management believes it to be, and given their backgrounds, I'd be surprised if it wasn't grounded in some data.
The "20 goal a season striker" idea is pretty much a myth, certainly for a club like Saints. Look at some of the premier league greats. Rooney, scored 20 goals just once in his career. Drogba? Once. Andy Cole? Once. Robbie Fowler? Twice. Van Persie? Twice. Ballon D'or winner Michael Owen? Never. The only players to consistently score 20 goals a season are the absolute elite: Shearer (7), Aguero (6) Kane (5) & Henry (5) and no doubt Ronaldo if he had stayed. The best we can hope for is someone who regularly gets around the 13-15 mark, and even then, depending on age, would likely draw attention of bigger clubs.
Didn't know that, great post. In my head those names mentioned were banging in 20+ each season. Memory is a funny thing.
Yeah. It also highlights the importance of goals from midfield. If we could get a couple of attacking midfielders who are mainly there to create chances, but also contribute 6 or 7 a season that is big. I can't think of many in our recent years that fit that mould. Tadic, Lallana and Mane. JWP of course due to pens and free kicks.
I was going to add Steve Davis to that list, but he only scored 12 in 193 appearances. Felt like more than that.
If we had another striker with similar scoring levels to Adams I think we’d be alright. He averages 8 a season but the problem is we don’t have anyone else who has proven they can score that amount, apart from JWP from dead ball situations. If you averaged out our entire squads scoring levels I think you’d struggle to get to us scoring a goal a game
There are some well thought out arguments in this thread. Decent goal scorers are at a premium yet I felt we have the ability to create enough . Traditionally, our midfielders have never contributed as much as they should with the goal tally although it is great to see Perraud contributing. Jusr not convinced that Adams or Armstrong have what it takes to get us out of the relegation zone.
It’s relatively simple. Adams is good enough to be a PL striker (though not a teams main goalscorer). Armstrong isn’t.
Great post and pretty mad. tbh we don’t even need someone elite like that - not that we can afford one. We need someone of a similar level to Adams. Something like 5-10 goals, some assists.. even just some genuine PL quality hold up play/close control would make a huge difference. As soon as Adams goes of the pitch we offer absolutely nothing at the moment. I think we should sell Adam Armstrong unfortunately. He just isn’t PL quality
