There are many, including American pundits, suggesting that So You Think has a massive chance of taking the Breeders' Cup Classic tonight. I agree. I have been a fan of the horse all year and must admit that he has not quite lived up to my expectations. However i don't think it is entirely ridiculous to suggest that with a little more luck on his side that his record this year could be considerably better than it is. It must be remembered that despite his slightly disappointing season he has still won 3 G1 races and finished less than a length back in 2nd in two more, both at Ascot. The one 'blip' was in the Arc when i don't think he was given any sort of chance at all coming from where he was. On pure proven ability he is right at the top of the table. He is tough, super consistent and you can be reasonably sure that he will give his running. It seems that he takes his racing well so the fact that he has been busy doesn't concern me as much as it would with any other horse. I think, without exception, any other horse who had undertaken his schedule in the last month or so would have been crossed from my list. He is famed for his iron constitution and i see no reason why that should not show itself once again. The two question marks in my mind are if he will handle the dirt and how he will break. This morning i have taken the opportunity to do a little research in these departments. I am fairly confident, especially considering the opinions of people with far greater knowledge than i, that there is every chance that he will take to the dirt. His action, build and temperament give him every chance. Therefore the major question mark for me is the break and this is what i was keen to look into. This is what i found: In the Mooresbridge he was easily the quickest away from the stalls and was then restrained as the pacemaker took over. In the Tattersalls Gold Cup he was easily the quickest away from the stalls and was then restrained as the pacemaker took over. In the Prince Of Wales' he was one of the first out, but was then restrained to sit just off the lead, before the slow breaking pacemaker came past him. In the Eclipse he was quickly away before being heavily restrained to settle in behind the leaders. In the Irish Champion he was easily the quickest away from the stalls and was then restrained as Roderic O'Connor took over. In the Arc it's difficult to see but given his previous efforts at the start it's hard to think that he wasn't at least smartly away which makes it even more curious why Heffernan wasn't slightly more ambitious in trying to obtain a decent position. In the Champion Stakes he was away smartly once more and then allowed to settle into 3rd position as Ransom Note and Nathaniel took over. Conclusions: He is consistently quickly away from the stalls but has never been allowed to stride on a take up the running. So long as they have practised this at home, then i think he can break and be allowed to run as the American's will do. I am not saying he will break as fast as them but he has every chance of breaking adequately in order to hold a decent position during the race. As we saw in the Arc, i think it is important that he is handy because he is not a horse that quickens. He gradually winds it up and i think this is another aspect that will favour him on dirt. Because the dirt is more 'slippy' than turf i understand that is harder for a horse to quicken, especially one used to running on turf. The fact that he is not reliant on this attribute should give him a greater chance of adapting to the strange surface. So, therefore, having said that i was not going to back him again, and especially not in America where my knowledge of the opposition is inadequate at best, i have nearly tempted myself into backing him. I am not too concerned by his punishing schedule, O'Brien horses have shown up well on the first night (Up 4th and Misty For Me 3rd, and both finishing very fast), i think he might just take to the dirt, i think he can break well enough to take a decent position, and he is drawn well. Can he do it? I really hope so and, the more i look at it, the more i like his chances. All the preview videos i have watch tell me that Uncle Mo can't stay, Havre De Grace is clearly useful but only one filly has taken this and she is no Zenyatta, and the rest have question marks over them. I am not suggesting that he will win but i would not put anybody off investing a little EW at 6/1. One point of concern is that the 6/1 is available with Ladbrokes, supposedly with the inside information on the Ballydoyle horses. I am not quite decided yet but i am moving evermore in his direction. If ever a European horse is to take it on the dirt then i think he has a great chance.
I've included a film of So You Think winning the premier open G1 WFA event in Australia, the Cox Plate in 09. As he was born on November 10 in 06, he was still only 2 at the time. But he was classified as a 3 yo. He's drawn the middle of the field in the black and white checks with yellow sleeves and white cap.
as i turned the morning line on they were on about ladbrokes prices of him which suggests as hes bigger than most and its normally a good guide of how much confidence they have on a o 'brien runner. i think he will run a good race,even if he doesnt take to dirt can see him running respectable. one horse ive come across is FLAT OUT. hes been acing over 1m-1m1f on fast dirt most of his life which as resulted in 1 win from 7 under those conditions ,a grade 2 hcap. but last time out he tried 1m2f on a muddy track and bagged his first grade 1 win.so the extra furlong and more testing going probably was the reason he improved and although the going as dried out,its still not fast dirt, just good/standard. havre de grace as beat flat out over 9f,but i see her 2 tries at 1m2f as resulted in losses.shes unbeaten this year at 9f but lost her only try of the season at 1m2f to a horse who shes beat over 9f previously flat out is 11/2 atm.
So You Think will not win. He has been one, if not the, most overhyped horse of the past few reasons. Havre De Grace beat the Ladies Classic winner by 8l and has better value.
I know this is being slightly facetious here, but the impression I get is that this horse could get beat in any number of Group Ones but there will always be people willing to make excuses made for him. Perhaps it's the draw, perhaps he was unlucky in running, trainer hadn't him fit enough , the grass was the wrong colour or something but it's rare to hear he was beat fair and square. Perhaps though, the reason he's been beaten in the best races is that, whilst he's a very, very good horse, there will always be one or two classier than him?! What he has in his favour though is that reports are the American horses are weaker than other seasons so he may be able to factor. He's surely the bookies favourite horse of the season going by the times the punters have done their ball aches on him, and I fear tonight will simply be more of the same.
You may well be right Beefy. My thinking as that with the opposition looking a little weaker than normal he might well have a chance. I also feel that he has a decent chance of being able to transfer his turf form to the dirt. If he can then he surely has a great chance. I must admit to having 'done my bollocks' on him both times he's been beaten at Ascot. He was definitely beaten fair and square in the Champion. No arguments there: perfect ride, perfect trip, perfect race, just not good enough.
By the way Zen I'd be happy to be wrong but cynicism does kick in sooner rather than later and in this game it's sometimes best having some He's one of the most impressive individuals I've seen on the flat horse, reminds me of Denman the sheer size and scope he possesses. Good luck with him but you know my opinions on it
And on the other hand, even if he wins, there will always be people who write him off. In some ways, he's on a hiding to nothin. Not too many other horses have won 3 G1 races, been second in another two and won a G3, from just 7 starts.
I think that's because we were led to believe he can walk on water Cyc whilst writing classical music. And cooking pasta at the same time... Wasn't it reasonable therefore that we were all left slightly underwhelmed by him when we saw he simply had 4 legs and a tail, just like the rest
He has lost 3 races. One a fast time, one a race record, and one a course record. He has won 4 races, one of which was over 2 secs faster than standard. This indicates tremendous consistency. All in the space of 6 months. Hasn't exactly been hanging around since he arrived. In the space of 12months he has raced in Australia, England, Ireland, France and now USA. If any horse deserves to win at the BC it's SYT. Maybe, if he hadn't been hyped up so much, he would be one of everyone's favourite horses.
I don't smoke Cyc thanks. One of these would do nicely though [NSFW] please log in to view this image [/NSFW] [NSFW] please log in to view this image [/NSFW] [NSFW] please log in to view this image [/NSFW] [NSFW] please log in to view this image [/NSFW] SMOKIN'
Uncle Mo seems entirely friendless. He's right out to 6/1 from being a clear 4/1 Fav for much of the week. Flat Out, as you say, the one for money. Now best priced 11/2. Freely available at much bigger yesterday.
SYT,Havre de Grace are both very good horses.But UM is the only horse in the race who has potential to put in a brilliant performance.Im expecting him to get out quick and to try and lead all the way.UM for me to hang on from Flat out and SYT to finish 4th or 5th.
Gonna change my previous post after seeing the Marathon.SYT to finish closer to last than first.Its just too tough for the Euros to translate any top turf form to dirt.
