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But also every chance has an XG rating as well. For instance an open goal with the ball on the goal line would have an XG of 0.99. Whereas a first time volley from 40 yards on the half turn would be something like 0.001. The only issue I have with it is at some point it has to be subjective as there’s so many variables to the average chance. It’s a very good tool but it’s not definitive. Micheal cox (the athletic) and Rory Smith (New York times) both explain XG really well for the layman.

 

So we have a subjective assessment of a goal scoring chance, followed by some statistics of these assessments. Any standard deviation given?

 

I don’t know enough about how they assess each chance to comment with any authority. I just think it has to be somewhat subjective based on the amount of variables the average chance has.

 

But it’s not subjective. The xG rating is based on the percentage of similar chances leading to goals in every other match assessed. So as time goes on, the accuracy if the xG rating gets higher.

 

Yes but no two chances are the same. The amount of variables are too great. Wet pitch. Windy day. Uneven pitch. Crowd noise. How set the player is before they take their shot etc etc. I’m not saying it’s not a good tool. I think it’s great to be honest. I just mean it’s not clear cut and there’s a degree of subjectivity

 

assessed subjectively by a human. OK it may be very useful, but I would hardly call it mathematical

 

I'd be interested to see some xG ratings for a wet Tuesday night in Stoke

 

Does xG ratings tell us who our new gaffer is gonna be ?

 

Bit weird choice mate but each to their own

 

She's already got my coat for me so I guess I've pulled. I don't think I'd have a choice in the matter.

 

That’s wrong, the people doing the assessments have very rigorous guidelines to work to. But if you’re convinced it’s rubbish then I’m not here to dissuade you. It’s just that every pro club uses these data, and I doubt they are all misguided.

 

So we don't have (anymore) shot on target = either saved/blocked or goal scored or shot off target = **** ****, couldn't hit a barn door it he tried?

 

That’s reported for every game on the BBC website and a zillion other places. So yes.

 

How do they know whether or not it was on target, or accuracy of pass if they don't know what the player was aiming at?

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Any links to all the games on the BBC website where someone is called a **** ****?

 

Football is a quantum sport, it's either a goal or it isn't.

 

I have heard after much studying of analytics and xGs that Liverpool have been told by the experts that it looks as though Haaland could be a bit of a threat.

 

Have you got any xxxxx's to back that up?

 

I think our Standard Deviant has a thread on WhatsApp if you're interested...