Just wanted to say a few words about the above who so far has had just the one run over hurdles. The 5YO is also, currently, available at a best priced 8/1 for the Ballymore at next month's Cheltenham Festival. The racing career of Walking On Air one, to date, is so comparable to Shishkin you might well say it is 'spookily' so. Walking on Air was 2nd (2021) in the same bumper that Shishkin won (2019) at Kempton Park. And then the similarities extend to the fact that Walking on Air (2022) and Shishkin (2020) both won the same Newbury novice hurdle. Concentrating solely on Walking On Air he looked very, very good at Newbury on 19 January coming clear after the last to win, in a canter, by 13 lengths. And the form of this race was boosted, big time, when the 2nd home, that day, won next time by a dozen lengths. Another plus is the wonderful breeding of Walking on Air. By Walk in the Park out of Refinement. The latter being one of the best mares to race this century - winning 13 times, including at Grade 1 level, and being placed in such events as the Champion Bumper, Ballymore and Mares Hurdle (beaten just a short head). Digesting all the above it sounds wonderful doesn't it. And the conclusion must be that old boy Lieutenant Henderson looks to have yet another star on his hands. Hand out the trophy, order a celebratory GnT and all that... However, and I do mean however, lets sober things up as we consider how the 3 progency of Refinement, to race, in the NH sphere, prior to Walking on Air, have fared. (i) West Coast Time (born 2012, sire Westerner) - 14 runs (won 2). Won on his Bumper debut before finishing 2nd and 13th in these races. Switched to hurdles finished 3rd first time up before winning a Maiden Hurdle. Was then beaten in 8 hurdles races and his sole attempt at fences. Highest ever hurdles perch 123. (ii) Meticulous (born 2014, sire Fame And Glory) - 11 runs (won 2). Won on his Bumper bow before finishing 4th, 2nd and 8th in these races. Over hurdles won a maiden hurdle at his 7th attempt. Has had one more run over hurdles since then finishing 4th. Highest ever hurdles perch 131. (iii) Risk Factor (born 2015, sire Duke of Marmalade) - 10 runs (won 1). Had a formline in Bumpers of -2212. Over hurdles though has never finished better than 3rd. 0/6 over hurdles. In total over hurdles these 3 animals are 2/23 (these wins in Maiden Hurdles) and to date (including Walking on Air) Refinement has produced no offspring that has won, over timber, above maiden / ordinary novice grade. In fact if you look at the formline of Refinement's offspring following them winning for the first time, over hurdles, at maiden / novice grade, it reads (I've listed it in terms of WCT, M, then RF, rather than strict date order, but you get the drift) -5024284864U36F33. Now at this point I'm sure several on the forum are shouting, 'What that daft Chuckles boy doesn't realise is that those 3 beasts weren't trained by our beloved, Lieutenant Henderson. But Walking On Air is'. And. of course, they are correct. But let me just point out those '3 beasts' were all handled by young Joseph. Who, in my opinion, is a top 5 trainer and destined for greatness. So in this instance I don't think the Lieutenant Henderson comparison is strong in the slightest. Walking On Air would go to Cheltenham with just one hurdles run under the old belt but it should be noted that Lieutenant Henderson has previously won Grade 1s, at the meet, with animals having just their 2nd run over hurdles and Nico de Boinville is on record as saying the horse is 'so professional' that a lack of runs is not a worry. I realise I've waffled on a fair bit but look, I guess, the question must be is Walking on Air Shishkin Mark 2 or Refinement Mark 4???
Been a busy old week so just picking up on this now. Walking On Air was certainly visually impressive on hurdling debut and could only beat what was put in front of him. Second placed Hecouldbetheone seemed to frank the form when winning next time out at Plumpton but subsequently ran like a drain at Ascot (possibly yard form to blame - the Moores not exactly prolific during February). For me the most impressive part of his Newbury performance was what he did after the last hurdle and - since you mentioned Shishkin won the same novice hurdle a few years ago - I tried to do a comparison of their times from landing after the last hurdle to crossing the line. Based on my very basic assessment using Sporting Life replays and the stopwatch on my iPhone I have Walking On Air taking around 21.5 seconds from the back of the last to the line. Shishkin took about 19.5 seconds to cover the same distance in his novice hurdle. There are, of course, all sorts of "ifs" and "buts" when comparing times - Shishkin was ridden more vigorously and had a rival upsides at the last - but on the other hand he did it on heavy ground compared to good-soft / soft in places for Walking On Air. Visually comparable and Walking On Air could clearly have gone much faster after the last. I think the strength of this year's Ballymore may, to some extent, depend on whether any of those at the head of the Supreme market (Constitution Hill, Jonbon, Dysart Dynamo and Sir Gerhard) decide to go Ballymore instead. If they don't then Ginto is probably the one to beat (although Grand Jury and Eric Bloodaxe did little to advertise his form at the DRF) and with Stage Star possibly the strongest British challenger. Too early (as always) to form a serious opinion on the Ballymore so I'll wait until final decs
I see those bookie chappies are now fully quoting these horses (all NRNB) for the Ballymore - Sir Gerhard 6/4, Dysart Diamond 9/4, Connie Hill 5/2 and Jonbon 5/1, As you say the strength of this years race will depend on how many (if any) of these 4 turn up re the card commencer 2 weeks today. Walking on Air remains a best priced 8/1 shot (although that price now only available with just 2 bookie chappies). Very interesting time analysis piece, old boy. Also think your Stage Star point highly relevant. Been following this one since his Bumper days (as he's owned by the Devizes crew) and am amazed by how little attention or, indeed, credit he has received thus far in his career. Did see a piece on the 'magic tellybox' the other day claiming this to be the case as from a hurdling perspective he is viewed as simply Bravemansgame Mark 2 - i.e. will turn up at Cheltenham unbeaten but then simply get steamrollered aside by the Irish runners. Very harsh in my opinion and I wouldn't want to underestimate The Stage Star, meself.
Disappointing news. I take it this is because they've run out of time re him and Cheltenham??? Did pick up a knock late Jan / early Feb which ruled him out of the Sidney Banks at Huntingdon - had he run in that race, incidentally the similarities between Shishkin and Walking on Air would have been extended even further. Let's hope the 5YO is fully restored to good health by Aintree and gets the chance to boost his reputation with a Grade 1 win. I feel that the staying novice hurdles, at Cheltenham, will be very much suffering this year as not only is Walking On Air set to miss out but Blazing Khal is as well. the latter being an animal I rate very, very highly.
The answer to the Refinement Mark 4 or Shiskhin Mark 2 question wasn't answered at Cheltenham but it looks like we will shortly know a lot more re Walking on Air. The old boy has 2 entries at Aintree later in the week (both Grade 1's) - Sefton Novices Hurdle (24.5 furlongs, Friday) and Mersey Novices Hurdle (20 furlongs, Saturday).
Runs tomorrow at Aintree (2.25). Is currently a 4/1 shot. The standard is set by the fave, Three Stripe Life, who was 2nd in the Ballymore at the Festival. Am really, really looking forward to seeing Walking On Air get his shot at 'the big time'. And seeing the question, from my original post, answered (or partly answered). Would also be a great training feat from The Lieutenant if this one could win a Grade 1 on just his 2nd run over hurdles. But I've faith in both him and the 5YO gelding...
Look you can obviously make excuses (too keen early stages, number of poor jumps, probably a step too far at this stage in his career) but your answer must be, right now, that Walking on Air is more Refinement Mark 4. That Refinement formline now looking even worse. Following her progeny, winning their first race over hurdles, it is now -5024284864U36F33P. Moving forward the old boy still has time to make an impact and hopefully he will do that next season. He's certainly in the best of 'magic' hands.
Sad postscript to this race that Elle Est Belle collapsed post race and whatever her ailment was it turned out to be fatal.
Just a final postscript re Walking On Air at the weekend. The Stewards asked Lieutenant Henderson if he could offer any explanation for the poor run. The forum's favourite trainer stated the 'gelding had ran greenly and made several jumping errors throughout the race'. This was 'noted' (whatever that actually means) by the Stewards. He was then routinely tested after the race (Walking on Air not Lieutenant Henderson) and the Veterinary Officer (not THAT Veterinary Officer, incidentally) reported that 'a post-race examination of Walking on Air, during routine testing, failed to reveal any abnormalities'.
Been down to the archives, at Not 606 House, to drag this thread back out into the light and am doing so because of recent comments made by Walking On Air's trainer, the forum favourite, Nicky Henderson. That great man has revealed, 'Walking On Air has been to Coolmore for the summer and had some little repairs done and has come back into training in tremendous condition and I have little doubt he has the ability to possibly go to the top as a staying hurdler. He is very talented and let’s hope he has the opportunity to show that this season'. Positivity with a capital 'P' from our sports leading light there. Walking On Air is, incidentally, 33/1 for the '23 Stayers Hurdle. In the interests of balance though I would ask readers to have another look (or indeed first look) at the formline above re Refinement's offspring after they have won their first race over hurdles. Walking On Air remains, as was the case when I first did this thread, a horse whose career could go in very different directions. He's on the cusp, team, but the cusp of what awaits to be seen. The journey is shortly set to recommence...
You might be interested to learn we have one of the old soaks cast offs in our yard for the forthcoming pointing season. A fame and glory gelding out of Alannico.
I hope he proves a legend, not just in Italy, but also on these shores. The old boys sole run over hurdles certainly hinted at a fair amount of ability. In all seriousness looked Italian Legend up and he looks very, very well bought out of Seven Barrows (just €1,800) - especially when you consider in '18 he had cost €65,000.
Apparently they liked him but there were a few issues, nothing major. It’s just a numbers game in a big yard. You make an impression or move on.
