Wasn't it a data geek (not Aski) who said the Wolves match showed only 57 minutes of actual play due to time wasting tactic, players being shot by snipers etc, thigh strains from players rolling over and over….
Leeds’ attacking problems: Striker issues, over-reliance on Harrison and middling stats please log in to view this image By Phil Hay and Mark Carey In the dressing room after Leeds United’s early-season rout of world champions Chelsea, Jesse Marsch warned his team not to dine out on it for long. The performance was exceptional but pressure would come knocking again because football is like that, and one win can soon begin to look like an outlier. It was not that Marsch anticipated the poor results that have followed or thought Leeds were in for a downturn in form but he was wary of assuming they had cracked it. “The Chelsea game might be bad for us, because it put teams on a warning that we’re playing intensive and they have to respect us,” said Leeds’ head coach last weekend, and it is entirely possible that 3-0 victory on August 21 had that very effect. It is also possible that game was a freak — a high bar these Leeds players have only a low chance of clearing regularly. What they did that day was make the most of everything; be nigh-on perfect on every front. They created nine chances and took three of them. They allowed Chelsea three shots on target and conceded no goals. They scored at good moments when their tails were up and their expected goals (xG) peaked for the season so far at 2.22. In tandem, expected goals against (xGA) dropped to its lowest level in the eight games so far (0.88) and Chelsea, in helpless fashion, hit a brick wall. It was a win that showcased Marsch’s methods of attack and the potential Leeds have in their best moments. But unexpectedly, it bounced them into a streak of five league matches without a win, the most recent being away to Crystal Palace on Sunday, and Marsch spent time after that 2-1 defeat at Selhurst Park talking about the same aspect of his plan: how Leeds go forward, how clinical they are, and how ruthless they have been in reacting to the smell of blood. “We’re not scoring enough goals,” he said. Goals were always going to be a dominant point of discussion around Leeds this season. Various things saw to that: Patrick Bamford trying without success to regain 100 per cent fitness before the campaign started, record signing Rodrigo coming off the back of two mediocre years in English football and Leeds stalling until the last few days of the transfer window on moving for an extra forward, despite calls for them to recruit there having sold Raphinha to Barcelona. It was up front where they looked vulnerable on paper and up front where the team did not look like picking itself. With the Palace game poised at 1-1, there was very little sign of a second Leeds goal coming. “In the second half, I don’t think it was a bad performance,” Marsch said. “I just don’t think we were able to be dangerous.” But how dangerous are his side as a rule? And in looking at the club’s more recent results, do they show that Leeds have a fundamental problem in creating chances? The Athletic digs into the attacking data to establish what exactly they are offering up front. Goalscorers Scoring goals is not an acute problem for Leeds, per se. They have 11 in their eight league games this season, including one own goal by Wolves’ Rayan Ait-Nouri, which leaves them a long way short of prolific but well clear of barren territory, too. Wolves, with three to their name from one more match, are in that depressing ballpark — desperate to get going up front. Marsch, however, touched on a pertinent issue post-game at Palace when he said that Leeds are struggling to score enough in the periods of the games where they are dominant. That was true on Sunday, when his team took an early lead, made seven chances before half-time and had an excellent opportunity to go 2-0 up through Bamford. That was the point where Palace were rattled and the match was asking to be killed off. There is much debate about Bamford, his fitness and his sharpness, and in analysing the No 9 position, personnel is a concern. Already this season, Marsch has used three different players up top: Bamford, Rodrigo and Joe Gelhardt. None of the three are precisely like-for-like — all have different strengths and weaknesses — and the side is lacking continuity in a key area, largely because of injuries. It seems apparent from Marsch’s choice of line-up when the majority of players are available that, to his mind, nobody fits better in the No 9 role than Bamford. And Bamford, to the naked eye, is arguably the centre-forward most suited to Marsch’s tactics: someone who likes vertical passes played into the runs he makes. But it is now mid-October and he is still not at peak fitness. The 29-year-old, who missed most of last season because of injuries, is averaging half an hour’s football per game in this one and is yet to score, although his xG says he has seen good enough chances to have found the net twice. Leeds squad in attack PLAYER MINS GOALS SHOTS SHOTS ON TARGET BIG CHANCE Rodrigo’s xG (2.5) is better and so, by a margin, is his return of four goals. Of his four big chances, he has taken two. But his campaign was interrupted in late August by a dislocated shoulder which kept him out for a month and it is apparent that his desire to play as a No 9 can only be met if Bamford is not in the team. And if Bamford is not in the team, Leeds find themselves back at square one: asking if they really have a striker who can bed in properly this season. The crux of Marsch’s tactics — the turnovers, vertical play and quick passing leading to chances — makes a thoroughly dependable striker seem more and more essential. Other goals are coming from players elsewhere: two from Luis Sinisterra and one each from Jack Harrison, Brenden Aaronson, Marc Roca and Pascal Struijk. A spread of finishers is good but only goes so far without a routine goalscorer leading the line and Bamford has not been able to give Leeds that since scoring 17 while playing every league game in 2020-21. Marsch still wants him to be that player. In reality, Rodrigo has delivered more, posing the question of whether Marsch should commit to him at No 9 for now. Somebody has to settle there, and fast. Chance creation The truth about Leeds’ chance creation and all-round attacking play is that statistically, most of it puts them in mid-table in comparison to other Premier League teams. They are some way short of the peak creativity seen under Marsch’s predecessor Marcelo Bielsa in the same division, although very little in their numbers jumps out as a major warning signal. Premier League goal threat CLUB GOALS XG SHOTS PER 90 ON TARGET PER 90 Over 90 minutes, Leeds are producing an average of 11.75 shots on goal, ranking them 11th out of the 20 clubs, according to Opta. They are more productive than most of the teams they would expect to compete with, not least Bournemouth, who have somehow taken 12 points despite an average of fewer than seven shots a game. It is possible to break the data down further. Leeds’ total of 4.12 shots on target per 90 is the ninth-highest tally in the Premier League and their efforts on target inside the box is top 10, too. The same goes for their expected goals ratio of 1.21 per 90, and while xG under Marsch has never matched Bielsa’s best figures, it is usually steady. More importantly, as the following table explains, Leeds’ expected goals against (xGA) calculation has dropped significantly from a worryingly high point when Marsch came in last February, supporting the claim that they have improved defensively. please log in to view this image The overall picture is not immediately troubling, then, at least on the basis of stats. Leeds, based on xG, should have scored 11 goals this season, and that’s what they have done. The only game in which they barely threatened at all was the 0-0 draw at home to Aston Villa, in which most of the second half was played with 10 men. The next graphic shows that Leeds consistently attack at high speed and that their efforts on goal tend to carry a relatively strong level of danger. There is no denying that they were made to look toothless in the second half against Palace — like a side who would not have found a way through if the game had gone on all night — and in that, there is a broader debate about Marsch’s ability to alter games, to switch tactics and, for want of a better phrase, to concoct a Plan B. Yet his observation about Leeds’ attacking levels is probably accurate — that while they do create chances, they do not create enough of them to have the luxury of being wasteful with the ones they get. They are a side who have to strike while the iron is hot. please log in to view this image One of the numbers to stand out here is Leeds topping the charts when it comes to passes per defensive action (PPDA) — the number of passes a team allow opponents on average before they succeed in recovering possession. It is an indication that Marsch’s squad are pressing swiftly and effectively when they lose the ball, a core part of his plan, which is explained in a separate article here. As for dead-ball situations, Leeds have tried to make set pieces work for them without relying on them to excess. Fourteen per cent of their chances have come via that route — unlike Brentford, who have relied on dead balls for 36 per cent of theirs. For Marsch, far more depends on what happens in open play. Who is getting on the end of Leeds’ opportunities? The main answer to this is Rodrigo. He’s had 23 of Leeds’ 94 efforts on goal, which equates to a whisker over four per 90. Erling Haaland is hitting that sort of rate at Manchester City and there are very few regular starters in the Premier League who clear the mark of four attempts a game. Finding Rodrigo in useful positions has not been a huge challenge and it would be unfair to point the finger at his finishing. He has four goals to his name, against an xG of 2.46. The Spain international has done what he can. please log in to view this image Ten of Leeds’ shots have come from Bamford, who has played 262 fewer minutes than Rodrigo, but those chances should have been good enough for him to open his account for the season, returning an xG of 1.99. Given that Bamford’s appearances have been limited, the fact that the bulk of the opportunities have fallen to him and Rodrigo tells a story about how Leeds set up and how they play: with a system focused on serving whoever fills the No 9 role. Bamford has described their tactics as being like FIFA on a games console, with everyone looking for through balls to a running centre-forward. While Jack Harrison has become an extremely creative source for Leeds — almost to excess, and more on this shortly — he comes up with less than one shot per 90 (0.85). Marc Roca, with eight attempts, has registered more from a deep-lying midfield role than his six. Brenden Aaronson is on nine, perhaps helped by the occasions when Marsch has moved him from the right side to the middle, because as the numbers show, Leeds are not inclined to lean towards that side of the pitch. When it comes to spreading the play, a huge amount of it gravitates towards Harrison. Leeds squad - creativity Is there too much reliance on Harrison? Harrison’s stats this season are notable and, in some respects, very striking. Most chances created at Leeds? Harrison on 19, with Aaronson and Tyler Adams next on 10 each. Most big chances created? Harrison with four, two ahead of Rodrigo and Struijk. Most chances made from dead balls? Harrison on eight, with Aaronson next on three. Most crosses from open play? Harrison’s 23, with Aaronson next on nine. Most dribbles? Harrison on 35, six more than Aaronson. Across the entire division, the 25-year-old is top 10 for shot-creating actions (SCA), the metric which records the two events directly before a shot is taken. In terms of where Leeds’ opportunities come from, and in terms of where they pose the most threat, the overall picture is one of imbalance. This might merely be because Harrison is so productive and matching his output is difficult, if not impossible, for his colleagues. It is also true that while Aaronson has changed positions more than once, Harrison starts wide left with rare exceptions, like that draw with Villa, when Marsch used him on the right. But even so, one side is offering more than the other. From the day of Marsch’s appointment and his first fixture in charge away at Leicester City, it was evident that his tactics would not rely on, or provide, huge amounts of width. Marsch’s outside forwards in his attacking line of three took up narrow positions and because of that, much of their attacking play came through the middle of the pitch. To a large extent, those tactics have not changed since that day in early March. The map below shows us Leeds generate many of their chances from the zone directly outside the opposition’s box and in front of the “D”. But it also reveals how often they stray towards Harrison’s domain on the left — and how little creativity they are showing on the other wing. Again, this is arguably a feather in Harrison’s cap but if Marsch is looking for an area of the pitch where his team can be more dangerous or assertive, the flank from which Aaronson forced the opening goal against Palace at the weekend is staring him in the face. please log in to view this image Undoubtedly, the Leeds head coach has tools to work with there: a lively winger in Sinisterra and a right-back in Rasmus Kristensen who, for all that he has settled slowly into English football, liked to overlap at every opportunity with Red Bull Salzburg in the Austrian Bundesliga. The average positions in the first half at Selhurst Park — before the substitutions which switched Aaronson central — show Harrison (No 11) furthest forward, almost the most obvious attacking target. Aaronson (No 7) is deeper and more heavily inverted. please log in to view this image The United States international is a beast when at his best, like he was against Chelsea when he came up with a goal, two shots on target, four shot-creating actions and 28 carries of possession — all while positioned on the right. He produced similar numbers at Palace and for as long as Aaronson was good on the day, Leeds were good too. In that, there is a clear message. Do Leeds need a plan B going forward — and can they find it out wide? There are teams, such as Liverpool and West Ham, who like peppering the opposition’s box from either wing. One of the byproducts of Marsch’s narrow formation is that Leeds are never likely to be one of those and this season, their deliveries from out wide have been unsurprisingly limited. Leeds have amassed 82 crosses from open play in eight league fixtures: a long way below West Ham’s total of 133 in nine. In short, nothing Leeds do is predicated or prioritised around working the ball to the flanks and swinging it directly into the box from there. They have the fifth-lowest total of open-play crosses in the division and with Marsch’s style of play, that trend is likely to continue. In Bielsa’s only full Premier League season, 2020-21, the club averaged 14 per match. There was one game in the Championship, during his 2018-19 debut year, where they racked up an incredible 45. please log in to view this image Patrick Bamford looks the player most likely to feature as Leeds’ first-choice No 9 this season but he is yet to find form and fitness (Photo: Robbie Jay Barratt – AMA/Getty Images) Marsch has players, though, who are happy operating as out-and-out wingers, including Harrison and Sinisterra. Leeds jettisoned another — Dan James, who left for Fulham on a season’s loan in the summer transfer window — but mentions of Crysencio Summerville keep touting him as a winger to watch, albeit without the 20-year-old Dutchman shining for the first team yet. There are ways for the team to change tack. Marsch is probably not wrong to say that Leeds have been worth more than two points from their past five matches but Sunday was an instance where a tactical switch was called for in real time and his substitutions failed to provide it. Conclusion At maximum efficiency, or somewhere close, Leeds are sufficiently dangerous to be safe from relegation — assuming their defensive record does not implode again, like it did last season. However it looks to the naked eye and however engaging the football feels, they are mid-table in the creativity stakes. That said, Marsch’s system is not working so outstandingly potently that his side have a huge margin for error on the attacking front. They are at risk of afternoons like Sunday, where the game was there to be won but their failure to make the most of their dominant stages exposed them to a negative swing in momentum. From the point of Palace’s equaliser midway through the first half, Leeds could find no way of clawing their initial impetus back. Undoubtedly, some clarity about who is holding the fort as the No 9 is necessary. A key position cannot be a moveable feast and, as January looms, pressure to recruit more aggressively there in future windows is not going to go away. In matching Harrison’s output on the opposite side of the field to him, meanwhile, there is a means of creating more threat and unpredictability — denying the opposition the advantage of knowing that so much will run through the former Manchester City loanee. In short, Leeds have limitations, and parts of this five-game winless run have served to highlight them. That win over Chelsea in the third game of the season was Marsch’s side at their best but it was not their 2022-23 in its entirety, more an isolated explosion of quality. They have it in them to stay out of trouble. Leeds should also be able to see that anything below full capacity will put them in harm’s way.
Average for the premier league is 55 mins playing time. Pretty poor- But it’s not the worst league in Europe for it.
My main concern would be to keep the end of each half as it is now, which is unknown with the timespan of 1 minute (approx). If there was some form of countdown clock, as in Rugby for example, it just wouldn't work in my opinion and would ruin the last few minutes of each half. A little bit of mystery as to exactly how long is left, is therefore a good thing, but short changing everyone due to the lack of actual game time is incredibly damaging to the sport as a whole. The other solution is to put me in charge of PGMOL and I'll have it sorted by the weekend
Oh and next 8 games = 6 points...ish and that's including the apparent walkover some are predicting at Leicester next week FFS.
Using special up to date technology, a heat map showing Arsenal's dominance in and around Leeds penalty area has been created in advance.... please log in to view this image
from that run to end December 8 points would be a very good return. From the Jan and Feb fixtures: West ham (h) villa (a) Brentford (h) forest (a) scum (h) everton (a) southampton (h) you’d expect/hope for more. Steve Bruce will be licking his lips when he comes in on Jan 1st
Might take a bit longer to fix VAR to be honest. My thinking is a long period of study and reflection would be required in order to to fully assess the levels of backhanders recieved. Or we could just get rid of it and go back to the old brown paper bag system.
I starting watching the game, but had to keep flicking in and out because the bit I watched was boring. Good result TBF to them, But I see a video of them singing an IRA song has been picked up by Sky (we employ staff who spit at girls) Sports.
Good subject/post their jammy One that makes my blood boil, is when a player get's threw a defence (team has sprung the offside trap) and bearing down on the goalkeeper, then is mercilessly hacked/shirt pulled by a defender from behind (the profesional foul) the result a booking/sending off and a more than often a useless free kick, now with the oppositions defence back in a strong formation. My answer to this would be an immediate sending off of the defender, then a free kick from that position where an attacker has a one on one with the goalkeeper, with all other players behind the half way line. To me it could work, and would be exciting to watch, and more importantly no advantage to the defending team. Good afternoon all
"There is no denying that they were made to look toothless in the second half against Palace — like a side who would not have found a way through if the game had gone on all night — and in that, there is a broader debate about Marsch’s ability to alter games, to switch tactics and, for want of a better phrase, to concoct a Plan B." "Yet his observation about Leeds’ attacking levels is probably accurate — that while they do create chances, they do not create enough of them to have the luxury of being wasteful with the ones they get. They are a side who have to strike while the iron is hot."
If it doesn’t go to plan I’ll have to see your sweet ‘fox’ and raise you a manfred mann ‘fox’ for Jesse… “The game is nearly up, the hounds are at my door.”
