Prix de l’Arc de Triomphe 2022

I see that Torquator Tasso has his prep. race for the Arc at Baden-Baden today.
Given that his current Arc ante-post price is 9/1, I feel very tempted by this offer.
Although history is against a 5 year old achieving a repeat win at Longchamp, Tasso’s credentials and the likelihood of testing ground in his favour give him a first rate chance.
Excepting Baaeed competing and staying the trip, I don’t see anything in the race as good as Tarnawa whom Tasso beat last year.
If he can convincingly dispose of Sammarco today, albeit in what could be a slow, tactical race, then 9/1 will tumble.

 

I will start by apologising because I am posting after the fact.

Sammarco only finished third at Baden-Baden (not necessarily a bad result) whilst Arc winner Torquator Tasso was beaten in a photo (and Frankie got banned for excessive use of the whip under German rules).

I think that I am one of the sceptics regarding Baaeed: firstly I think that Haggas and the connections will go to Ascot; and secondly history is massively against a horse that has never run over the distance before.

I note that on Oddschecker, Torquator Tasso is still 10/1 in a market that is totally skewed by Baaeed at the top of it.

I backed Tarnawa ante post last year so pardon the sour grapes!!!!!

 

News during the week and the Irish Champion Stakes running have not had a massive impact on the Arc market.

Pyledriver has suffered a setback and will miss the Arc and has disappeared from all lists. That is very disappointing for connections but if the Japanese horse wants to make the running that makes it a little less likely that he will have competition for the lead.

The Irish Champion Stakes winner Luxembourg has naturally shortened considerably and is now 7/1 second favourite in a few lists, with some bookmakers pushing Baaeed out (as I write, he is 100/30 with Skybet). Runner-up Onesto is what may prove to be a generous 14/1 as he is pretty amenable with regards to ground and won the Grand Prix de Paris over course and distance. Will Broome take up his entry for the Arc as a pacemaker? He still shows at 50/1. According to trainer Jean Claude Rouget, Vadeni will not be in Paris on 2nd October yet he is still in most lists and is top-priced 16/1 with Skybet. Jockey Christophe Soumillon suggested that the horse was not 100 per cent fit and that he needed better ground than Leopardstown. Alenquer is now out to 66/1 and Stone Age is 100/1.

With the St Leger and Irish St Leger being run on Sunday as well as the Arc Trials over course and distance, it is possibly the last chance to get form clues.

 

With Eldar Eldarov's St. Leger win, am beginning to think the form of the Grand Prix de Paris in July is significant? Onesto won this with Eldar Eldarov 4th over 5-lengths behind the winner. OK, only six runners, but it does put Onesto in the picture for the Arc, especially on 'home' ground? Good chance going will be soft enough for him too.

 

He was in the picture before that Swanny, based on his unlucky run against Vadeni over distance more suitable to Vadeni. The Leger form has done his chances no harm at all, even though it was a weak Leger

 

Yes of course, Ron, I should have mentioned that extraordinary run against Valdeni in France, plus other really fine performances recently. Just hope he isn't 'over the top' on Arc day after a very busy season? Oh, and how about Onesto's breeding, by Frankel out of a Sea The Stars mare! Crikey, doesn't get much more blue-blood than that!

(A note on the unraced broodmare Onshore, Onesto's mum. Nowadays she's a top Thoroughbred broodmare with the huge Diamond Creek Farm organisation. Very latest information I have is that she is most probably in their Kentucky paddocks, and is currently in foal to American Pharoah.
Diamond Creek Farm is truly a massive outfit. Not only do they have Thoroughbred broodmares, but Standard-breds too, i.e. Trotting, Pacing, amongst other equine breeds, no doubt? Note: Harness Racing is big business in the USA, and in many European countries too)

 

The Arc Trials were not especially informative, leaving us with more questions than answers.

The Prix Foy was won by the gelding Iresine, who is ineligible for the Arc, with Bubble Gift chasing him home just ahead of Verry Elleegant. That was a marked improvement in form for the ex-Australian mare but the bookmakers were unanimously unimpressed with her odds 50/1 for the big race and the French four year old 66/1. Bubble Gift was beaten a similar margin by Alpinista in the Grand Prix de Saint Cloud.

Tuesday was a disappointment in the Prix Vermeille, fourth in a race where the first three crossed the line together. Sweet Lady had been fourth in the Grand Prix de Saint Cloud in her previous race and she just pipped Lilac Road who had been fourth in the Yorkshire Oaks, so two nods to Alpinista, but that surely just indicates how poor an effort it was by Tuesday, second at York. Sweet Lady and Tuesday now both trade at 50/1; however, third home three year old La Parisienne is only 33/1 as she was returning from a break. Credit where it is due to Gregory Benoist for making all on Sweet Lady but the race effectively turned into a sprint in the straight and Tuesday had not settled being held up towards the rear and only the third really finished from out of the pack.

It is difficult to know what to make of the Prix Niel, with the big Japanese hope Do Deuce beaten nearly four lengths fourth while Simca Mille held off Lassaut and True Testament in third. Do Deuce is available at 25/1 in a place whilst the first two home are both an underwhelming 40/1. So there has to be question marks about the Japanese star. Was he just race rusty and being prepared for the big day? Or does he want better ground? The winner boosted the form of Onesto. He is available at 14/1 for the Arc if he takes up his entry.

My conclusion is that we probably did not see the Arc winner on Arc Trials day. No bookmakers are quoting the St Leger winner, who would have to be supplemented to attempt the double that has never been achieved.

 

"William Haggas has announced Baaeed will have his final outing in the QIPCO Champion Stakes at Ascot rather than the Prix de l’Arc de Triomphe."

Absolutely no surprise with that announcement, not for me anyway. I was as certaiin as I dared to be that Baaeed would not take part in the Arc. I'm sure many other forum members thought so too.

 

I think Do Deuce jockey, Yutaka Take wanted to know his ability to come from behind.
It's because he didn't try to be Frontspacer even he had a good start.
He didn't want to be Makahiki, the winner of the Niel, also the loser of the big day.

Here is Yutaka's comments.
"It became easier to imagine running the same distance and on the same course.I only think about the big day. Today he didn't prepare at all. Anything goes as we planned."

I don't know whether I choose Do Deuce yet, but I'm looking forward to watch his moving up!

 

Bugger. I wanted to see him. But I didn't really expect to have that pleasure. Hotel booked for the Saturday anyway

 

I cannot say that I was surprised either when it came up on the Sky Sports News ticker during their football coverage.

I was quite surprised at how the betting had changed when I looked on OddsChecker (the website, not the ropey app). My expectation was that the front of the market would simply shorten by a couple of points for all the main contenders. But what has actually happened is that now Luxembourg has become a clear favourite – best-priced 9/2 with Hills, who are also best-priced Alpinista at 7/1 (generally 6/1 and 11/2). Torquator Tasso is pretty much 8/1 across the board with Titleholder 9/1 and Onesto 12/1 (generally 10/1 and 9/1). It is interesting that Adayar is still in the betting at 14/1 despite connections nominating the Champion Stakes for him. Will they now swap to the Arc to avoid Baaeed at Ascot? Adayar would be the top rated runner in the Arc and the odds are shortening on OddsChecker.

 

I am really tempted to go ante-post on Onesto and Alpinista, who both have excellent form lines, but I'll resisit and wait for Arc day. Am totally confused about an original fancy, Torquator Tasso. Hindsight, but why did connections put Dettori up on the horse LTO, when his regular rider always seemed to get the best out of him? Dettori should certainly have checked the 'overuse of the whip' rules in Germany, more strict than they are in the UK and Ireland? He really must have belted the horse though. Hope this does not affect TT too much prior to Arc day?

 

I am inclined to wait nearer the day before entering the market as that will give a better indication of who is planning on doing what. A friend of mine backed Alpinista last week with some of the winnings from another bet but 15/2 was hardly beating the book by a lot.

Frankie rode Torquator Tasso last time because his regular jockey is contracted to the owner of another horse so he had to ride it. I think Frankie was perfectly aware of the whip rules but in the heat of the moment in a driving finish he let the enthusiasm of older age get the better of him.

 

Thanks QMII, I didn't check the runners and riders carefully enough in the Baden Baden race. See TT's regular rider was on the winner too!

 

Made up (or estimated) statistic alert. I think it's safe to say that 90% of racing folk expected Baaeed to go for the Champion Stakes. However, I'd wager that a similar percentage hoped he'd go for the Arc. Personally, I think it's the wrong, yet the inevitable, decision. When you have the best horses avoiding the best races its very bad for the sport in my opinion.

I also wonder about the Champion Stakes and its long-term future. What sort of race is it, and what does it say about the contest, when the best horse in Britain (arguably for a long time as well) goes for the richest race in Britain and the general response is a big groan from both the racing public and the media?!? How does it stack up against the absolutely tip-top international contests such as the Arc, Breeders Cup, Dubai World Cup, Melbourne Cup, etc, etc??? Personally, I've never thought the Champion Stakes in that league nor even as a top, top, top race in this Isle if I'm being honest. It might be the richest but does it really stand on a level footing with the likes of the Derby, the Guineas, The Gold Cup, the King George, the International, the July Cup, the QE2, or the Dewhurst??? Not in my opinion and it might be worth thinking again about maintaining the Champion Stakes as our most valuble event given the, general, reaction to Baaeed's participation in said contest.

Now then who wants my opinion on why Baaeed is really side stepping the Arc?!? Don't all shout at once!!! I think it relates to Hukum. And the reason for this is that Baaeed's full brother is obviously (and sensibly) going to marketed, as Baaeed Mark 2 when it comes to his stallion credentials. Could winning an Arc (and therefore being a 12 furlong winner) lead to people believing, rightly or wrongly, that Baaeed is Hukum Mark 2?!? Makes you wonder. Well it does me at any rate...

 

Barney, perhaps you’re only a youngster but I can’t agree what you say about the Champion Stakes. For years it was arguably the third best non-Classic after the King George and Eclipse- often featuring top milers, 10 furlong horses, and late developing class fillies.
Yes, it’s been devalued in recent years but it never appealed to Arc de Triomphe aspirants, for obvious reasons.
Regarding the other races you mention, the Ascot Gold Cup is now a poor quality shadow of years ago; the Dewhurst has produced mediocrity in the last ten years or so; the International only ever attracted small fields, given its position in the calendar; and the July Cup has mostly been top handicap sprinters for years.
Maybe I’m just an old cynic but the plethora of Group Races has done nothing for maintaining quality at the top level. Even this year’s Arc makes me shudder when I look at the contenders.
As for Baaeed defecting, probably his connections don’t like the idea of his undermining stud value by failing to stay in Paris.
After all, he is a top miler and defeating mediocrity at 10 furlongs guarantees nothing- and he has had four races already this year!

 

Certainly agree that it is a pretty poor Arc field this year, and, after what you have said, I wonder if the race would have done Baaeed any good at all had he taken part, that is. Look at the field Sea-Bird II had to contend with in the 1965 running. Classic winners galore in the big field from all over the planet, Russia included. This great racehorse still won it under the most atrocious conditions, despite drifting left towards the stands side in the last furlong. There were many other great Arc races which make this year's event look pretty mediocre? However, we have to take what's on offer?

 

I agree with the sentiment of your first statement but I am perhaps a bit more pragmatic as I look at it in the whole taking into account the reality of how the European pattern works.

Certainly the October date for Champions’ Day was a bad idea as by that time of year the ground has usually gone so scheduling at that time condemns the meeting to almost always be run on easy ground, immediately eliminating all the fast ground horses. If you own/train a horse that wants quick ground, forget Champions’ Day and either target the Breeders’ Cup or pack your horse off to stud.

Champions’ Day should have been arranged for September, possibly around the time of the Cambridgeshire meeting.

The first problem is that the BHB/BHA had already decided that they wanted it at newly rebuilt Ascot because of the easier travel connections from the capital rather than middle of nowhere Newmarket.

The second problem was that to move races you need to get the approval of the European pattern committee. The Queen Elizabeth II was already a clash with the Prix du Moulin before it got promoted to Group 1 status so the French would probably have disapproved. The Irish have got the September weekend date that they wanted because the Irish Champion Stakes was already there so all they needed to do was move/upgrade the surrounding races.

Back in the day the Champion Stakes used to be on the same day as the Cesarewitch at Newmarket (went on a couple of occasions) so I do not think that the Irish would have allowed it to move to September to clash with the Irish Champion; and moving it to July causes fixture congestion with the Eclipse and the International (three races in five/six weeks).

Unfortunately we have ended up with a bit of a dog’s dinner through lack of foresight by the British authorities. Almost all the races on Champions’ Day moved from somewhere else and got renamed but their own failure to negotiate left them stuck with mid October because of the Champion Stakes. Why did they not leave the Champion Stakes where it was and instead upgrade the September Stakes, move it from Kempton and make it the obvious Arc trial for British/Irish horses?

Apologies to those who probably remember me making some of those same arguments when the same topic was debated a couple of years ago.

 

Quite a bit of what you say is more a reflection of the commercial nature of the sport that now appears to be dominated by three or four breeding operations whereas thirty or forty years ago there used to be some famous old owners/trainers who raced their horses for the racing.

The stayers’ division is now so mundane because most modern stayers are horses that were bred for middle distances but did not prove to be fast enough for ten/twelve furlongs. Look at the great stayers of recent years that have come from Ballydoyle – almost all of them were near the top of the Derby betting when they started their three year old campaigns. Similarly the sprinting division is dominated by horses that did not stay in the Guineas. We do not breed sprinters but stumble across them, unlike America where speed is king irrespective of distance.

Flat racing is certainly going the way of National Hunt racing in that there are too many races so the top horses can just avoid each other all season making for uncompetitive racing. Of course the problem in National Hunt racing is quite a British/Irish problem whereas Flat racing drags in the French and some other European countries. If you can pick up a Group 1 in Germany against inferior opponents why take on genuine rivals in Britain or Ireland?

I thought it was quite revealing what William Haggas had to say about the decision to go to Ascot rather than Longchamp. If you pay your supplementary fee for the Arc and then it buckets down with rain and you get drawn eighteen or nineteen, your horse’s chances have diminished because you have to change your usual tactics (held up, brought with late run) and your jockey has to ride him like he is a definite stayer (even on the ground). For what it is worth, I think Baaeed would get the twelve furlongs.

If horses like Adayar switch to the Arc then Baaeed could well win a mediocre Champion Stakes but I think that there is a general consensus that (on known form of the potential participants) both the Arc and the Champion Stakes this year are considered mediocre and only an emphatic victory by a horse in either race will change that view.