Baaeed - Best since Frankel???

Reading the reports and watching the TV shows, this past week or so, it now seems to have been accepted into fact (bit frustrating, in a way, as in reality it's just individual opinions) that Baaeed's effort in winning York's 'International Stakes' was the best performance seen, on the Flat, since Frankel won the same race in '12. But is this really the case??? Personally, I'd be inclined to say 'yes' whilst giving an honourable mention to a couple of Battaash's lightening fast performances And a nod to, my old faves, Churchill and Minding in their absolute pomp.

Where next for the son of Sea The Stars??? It would appear that most likely is one more run at Ascot (Champion Stakes). But also supposedly under consideration are Leopardstown and Paris Longchamp. I'd wager the old boy will head to Ascot but personally I'd love to see the 4YO steered towards the Arc. I can't see the extra distance being the slightest problem as Baaeed wasn't stopping over 10.25 furlongs, at York, and his brother (Hukum) is a winner over 14 furlongs. To me winning at Ascot or Leopardstown wouldn't greatly enhance Baaeed's status (merely, at the very best, duplicate what he did at York). But to win an Arc would send him stratospheric in my opinion. Superstar for the ages and all that.

But whatever happens on the track, re Baaeed for the rest of 2022, there appears zero chance he will be running in races beyond this season. The old breeding shed beckons. His fee for 2023??? I'd guess something in the region of £125,000 - £150,000. Interestingly, his brother, Hukum, may begin a stallion career at exactly the same time. Although it was quoted, earlier in the summer, that this may well be as a National Hunt sire.

Whatever happens in the future though that was a scintillating performance, last week, from Baaeed and it will long live in the memory.

 

I will certainly be very surprised if he runs in the Arc. Remember the 'certainty' in 1970? His name was Nijinsky. A right old 'Sassafras' of a race.

 

To answer the original question that bears the name of the thread: Yes, Baaeed is the best horse since Frankel.

I guess some will pour scorn on my largely agreeing with Oddy in my analysis – although I will disagree with his argument that his rating might be elevated by winning a sub-standard Arc.

Will he run in the Arc? The weather will dictate.

 

I would love Baaeed to go for the Arc, not least so I can see him in the flesh. But a question could be, why should he?

Frankel didn't
Would it actually increase his stallion fee?
Even if it did, would it actually increase his stallion revenue?
What is the risk if he runs and gets beaten? Or even if he scrambles home?

From a financial viewpoint, it could be a bad decision. Must be a difficult decision for the owner but she could be spared that if the heavens open. The French wouldn't over water the course, would they?

4/6 with a run

 

You want to see this fella, Ron:

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Will Baaeed take his chance in the Arc?

This SportingLife.com article gives Timeform’s view of what the going has been at Longchamp this century: Timeform's description of the going on Arc day

I have to say that I would dispute their description for 2005 as I got absolutely soaked as it bucketed down with rain for an hour before Hurricane Run won in the rain but the time was fast by Arc standards.

France Galop normally water all the big tracks but would they switch the taps off to try and attract Baaeed? The ante post betting for the Champion Stakes at Ascot has Baaeed 2/5 so I think the bookies have decided where he is going. If he does not show up at Ascot, 10/1 Nashwa is stealing money. He is 5/1 for the Arc in the real ante post market.

 

Now a best priced 2/1 for the Arc (or 4/6 NRNB). That race now certainly seems a lot more likely than it did a few days ago.

The supplementary fee, re Baaeed and the Arc, is €120,000.

 

Clearly there is something wrong with the Oddschecker app, because on that Baaeed is 5/1 but on their website he is 2/1.

The supplementary fee is pocket change for the big breeding operations. The horse will make that much money humping one mare.

 

We were hoping to get into the parade ring (ie inside with the owners and jockeys) but on Arc day it is not allowed. Major restrictions on who can enter there. Pity

 

..

 

Yes

 

When the new ParisLongchamp opened, I looked at the possibility of going on the first Arc weekend but the various restrictions on where you could go simply by getting an ordinary raceday ticket were ridiculous. I think in the end it was quite sparsely populated in some areas because they had hiked the ticket prices, putting off loads of locals as well as the British and Irish visitors that used to pack the place.

This year, tickets for the ‘Finish line lawn’ start at €65 for Sunday while a two-day pass is €80. I would not pay £55 to get in any British racecourse. Arc Trials day tickets are €10 and there will be hardly anyone there. With all their security restrictions, I bet they would not let me in with my camera bag, so no point travelling. At least you no longer need a Health Pass or proof of a plague test.

 

Fortunately we have a very good friend with connections who can get us into most places, but not on Arc day. He was on the prize giving stand when Holly Doyle won on Nashwa. I think we will still get a good position and might even get to the owners, jockeys and trainers disco the night before. Waiting to see

 

Hmm, the Yanks seem to think they have one that will rival Frankel and Baaeed. Name is Flightline. Hard to equate Dirt Track form with our Turf ground. Interesting anyway:

Is Flightline better than Baaeed or Frankel? Timeform react to stunning Pacific Classic win (sportinglife.com)

 

As you say, it is almost impossible to compare dirt form with turf form. It is very rare for any horse to win on turf by more than six or seven lengths.

The way that races are run on dirt in the USA and turf almost everywhere are very different. American racing very much happens straight from the gate with the best horses lying handy to the lead or taking it; plus many of their major races are handicaps. This should make them easier to assess provided that the ratings are accurate and the scale of pounds per length is reliable. I could not find details of what scale of pounds per length Timeform apply on dirt races.

In the case of Flightline in the Pacific Classic, he hammered the clock as well as a couple of good opponents and that is Timeform’s stock trade. So there does not seem any reason to believe that their assessment of him is too inaccurate.

Of course he and Baaeed will never meet as I cannot see the Haggas charge contesting the Breeders’ Cup Classic, for which Flightline is an odds on chance, and the only race for which he is being quoted on OddsChecker is the Mile, where he is not favourite because I suspect that the bookmakers think he will be packed off to stud if he goes unbeaten in the Arc/Champion Stakes.

Their opposing racing styles – Baaeed held up and brought with a late run, Flightline generally up with the lead or making it – make me think that bettors would prefer the American horse as Baaeed might struggle to overcome a big deficit if Flightline created one; but who knows if Baaeed would take to dirt?

 

In the current edition of The Weekender there was a 'Racing Post analysis' review of Flightline's win, on Sunday, and the 4YO got an absolutely brilliant write-up from them. Hardly surprising really as on Racing Post Ratings (RPR), which began in 1988, that run was given their best ever dirt RPR and Flightline, who scored 140, jumped to all-time 'number 2 horse' on RPRs - behind only the great Frankel who got 143, twice.

That run was only Flightline's 5th career start so you would have to expect him to improve in the future. If he does so Frankel's 143 'pole position' must be in some danger. I therefore think it valid, as you have done, to ask the question could he topple Frankel??? Maybe in the Breeders Cup Classic, perhaps???

Looked Baaeed up and he got an RPR of 138 when romping home in the International. Could one last hurrah see him hit the 140's as well???
Never thought I'd be pondering if not one but two horses could reach that sort of level in '22. Has to be given consideration though, people. Not to do so would be somewhat blinkered (no pun intended).

 

Thanks guys for your very interesting comments on this subject. Flightline kind of reminds me of Secretariat too. Agree, just no way Flightline and Baaeed will ever compete against each other.

 

10 entered then, at the 5 day stage, in Baaeed's finale, his swansong, his last run, Saturday's Champion Stakes.

Those bookie chappies are currently wagering - 1/4 Baaeed, 4/1 Adayar, 10.1 Bay Bridge, 25/1 My Prospero, 33/1 Dubai Honour, Royal Champion, 66/1 Bar.

The 2nd and 3rd, in the market, are obviously very, very, very good horses but can they get past Baaeed??? Personally, I doubt it enormously. And on official perches he has 8 lbs in hand on Adayar and a whopping 15 lbs over Bay Bridge. But is there something in the field that can beat Baaeed, people?!?

Should he be in a position to totally dominate, meanwhile, I wonder if Jim Crowley will really let Baaeed go full throttle to the old line and in doing so achieve a rating that will wow the world??? Or will he, if Baaeed is well clear, be pulling up a half furlong out and accept the accolades from the stands??? Academic thoughts if Baaeed is struggling, I know, but really hope it's the former of these 2 scenarios.