Tuesday sees Haldon Gold Cup day at Exeter and a wee race in the provinces down under (sorry Cyc ) Captain Chris makes his seasonal debut in the feature race at Exeter and the Arkle winner looks to hold all the aces here, even though it is no shoo-in. Ghizao, Medermit and Oiseau de Nuit all get weight from the novice champ and are sure to make a race of it. The very next race on the card is a cracking 3-runner affair with Menorah facing Sam Winner and Shammick Boy in what is sure to be a further informative race in what is shaping up to be a fascinating novice chase season. I think the first 2 races will go to Nicholls/Walsh and hopefully i will be waking up to another Americain victory down under
All well and good but I think a claimer is the race of the day I would love to know peoples views on the handicap marks given to CC and Ghizao after their novice chase seasons.
Nass - ratings seem to be permanently creeping upwards. Sizing Europe 177? CC won the Arkle and followed up at Punchestown but not sure he beat overly much there (Realt Dubh?) I think Sizing Europe is prob a 165 horse with CC 155 and Ghizao 148 ish - ie between 5 and 10 lbs lower than their official marks. It all started with Master Minded's silly rating of 186 a few years ago since then many chasers ratings have been artificially high.
Quite an impressive card tomorrow for a tuesday afternoon down in Exeter- walsh and nicholls have very good chances and you could put up a case for them in all the races! But just the two for me tomorrow 14.50- Captain Chris 15.20- Sam Winner As you can see I have decided to take menorah on. Ive gone for Captain Chris- is and will be very good chaser, although Ghizao will be looking to do a hatrick over him, he won at cheltenahm then showed no signs of tiredness at punchestown but I fully expect him to start the season the way he finished winning. Merdemit will want a longer distance nowadays. Nicholls has very high hopes for this Sam Winner in his chasing future and feels this is the way forward for him he showed signs of promise early last year. But although there is only 3 in the race (which is very disappointing) it will be a good race between these two. Although Menorah may be a force to be reckoned with over the fences this year and will win some very big races. His price is way too short imo. for someone unproven over fences! but I will only be having a very small wagers on these two just to add bit of intrest to my working day! lol.
04:00 Flemington-Lost In The Moment (NAP) Godolphin might have a really good chance of winning their first Melbourne Cup this morning as they go double-handed with Modun also running. Apparantly both galloped well and Bin Suroor has been keeping a watchful eye on them over in Aus for a couple of weeks. LITM has some excellent form lines this year, including two storming late runs into places behind Group 1 stayer Opinion Poll at Goodwood and 117-rated Green Destiny. He receives 9lb from Americain and Jukebox Jury, so I think he is nicely weighted if he gets the luck in running. William Buick has shown his tactical nouse in staying races before, particularly winning the St Leger on Masked Marvel. He rode LITM when beaten a head by Opinion Poll, and I am hoping he can put him in the race at the right moment and give himself the chance to storm down the home straight.
BOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOMMMMMMMMMMMMMMMMMMMMMMMMMMMMMMMMMMMMMMMMMMMMMMMMMMMMMMMMMMMM NEWCASTLE 3 - STOKE 1 MODUN E.W for the Melbourne Cup
Terrific day at Exeter tomorrow, and that mickey mouse staying handicap down under. I have been a big fan of Captain Chris for a while now and he rewarded my faith in the Arkle and then at Punchestowns. I think he is on a favourable mark in this race, certainly compared to the opposition, and think that conditions are in his favour. The ground should suit, the stiff track should suit, the extended 2miles shouldn't be a problem and i think he will take all the beating. The Hobbs team appear confident that he is quite a bit better than Wishful Thinking which would suggest that a performance in the 170s is well within his reach. To my eye their appears a fair bit of untapped potential still to be realised and i think that improvement may be forthcoming over longer trips later in the year. However, he has the best form of these over 2 miles, and the extended trip and stiff track will be in his favour. I expect him to win tomorrow and will be disappointed if he doesn't. I'll be backing him for the race and pre-race antepost for the King George because i think he will go there with an outstanding chance of upsetting the favourite Long Run. I hope he can reward my faith in him once more. Menorah vs Sam Winner will be interesting too. But a watching brief advised at the prices. I don't think there's any value to be had in the current market. No idea about the staying handicap down under but i'll endeavour to watch it, provided bed doesn't start appealing too strongly!
I've backed the Ellison pair for the Melbourne Cup and am hopefuly for two massive runs if both get clear paths. Will be absolutely chuffed if Moyenne Corniche wins! 4.30 Kempton Anginola 13/2 NAP Iâm pretty shocked by the 13/2 on offer for Joseph Tuiteâs only runner of the day tomorrow and it looks massive. After her first 2 starts in June and July, Anginola stepped up on her form to record a promising 1L 4th behind Red Hearts at Folkestone. After this Anginola was switched to the AW for her handicap debut off a mark of 59 over tomorrows C+D when going down a by a nose to Inniscastle Boy. Anginola tried to make all and showed very game battling qualities as she was pressured by a lot of horses from a long way out only to get mugged close home. The form of that race looks fine with the winner finishing a decent 2nd off a 3lb higher mark. After this, Anginola was raised 2lb and broke her duck when landing a 1m contest at tomorrows track impressively by 2L to Spunky. Anginola was given a slightly different tactical ride as she dropped a very close 3rd with Siouxperhero going very fast early on. Turning into the home straight Anginola travelled imperiously well and when asked to quicken from the 1f pole she did so in taking fashion and quickened away from her rivals. LTO Anginola was switched back to the turf when finishing a decent 3rd at Nottingham earlier this month off a mark of 66 over 1m. In a 16 runner affair, Anginola could not get near the front and had to be dropped out towards the back early on before unleashing her effort in the long home straight from a fair distance back. She was passing a lot of her rivals very easily but the winner had flown under an excellent tactical ride from Neil Chalmers as he caught his rivals napping and took a fair few lengths out of what was an unassailable lead, but I think the best horse on the day certainly won. It was interesting to see Spunky finish in 2nd in that race, 1.75L ahead of Anginola as the same rival finished 2nd on her win at Kempton. It shows that the form of her win is quite strong, and clearly that she is in fine fettle also with Spunky also getting first run on tomorrows selection Anginola reverts back to the AW tomorrow and returns to Kempton where she clearly goes very well judged on her 2 previous visits to the track. She races over 7f off a mark of 66, and I think this mark is certainly within her abilities when judged by the taking fashion of her win and her effort LTO. Although the step back to 7f should be no problem, I would prefer to see the race tomorrow over slightly further as I see 1m+ being her optimum distance. It will be interesting to see what tactics are implemented tomorrow, as from stall 5 the yard should be able to apply any tactics they wish, although I certainly hope they keep her prominent just behind the pace. Tom Queally is a good jockey booking, and took the ride at Nottingham so the yard are clearly hoping to win this contest with her tomorrow as this is only his 2nd ever ride for the yard. I am very very hopeful of a big run from Tuiteâs only runner of the day tomorrow and I will be having a decent bet at 13/2 as she is much, much too big. 4.00 Kempton If You Whisper 16/1 If stripping fitter for his first 2 reappearance runs after a 7 month break than the 16/1 available for Mike Murphyâs unexposed 3 year old looks huge. After his first two races, If You Whisper took a big step forward when finishing 0.75L behind Towering Spirit over 1m at Kempton being collared close home after battling against the fence to get a clean run. The form of that race looks decent, with Sinfonico 1.5L back in 4th winning off a mark of 84 subsequently. The 5th Groomed who was 3.25L behind If You Whisper winning off a mark of 79 too so it wasnât a bad maiden at all. After this, If You Whisper justified odds on favouritism when winning a 5 runner contest at Southwell by a length to Mazovian and although the form of that race isnât very good, the horses have in behind have won in lower grades and it showed he is able to win which is important. On his 5th start back in January, If You Whisper made his handicap debut off a mark of 78 and started as the outsider of the field in a 4 runner Class 4 handicap but ran a very good race to finish 1L behind the winner The Tichborne. It was a steadily run race so I am inclined to believe that the form of this race is genuine. The form of that race look promising with the winner placing twice off a 4lb higher mark, including a very narrow 0.62L 3rd in the Britannia Stakes behind the excellent Sagramor. Further to this, the 3rd that day Amwell Pinot has won since off a 1lb off 91 higher mark and was 1L behind If You Whisper. If You Whisper made his reappearance run after being off since for 7 months and although he was disappointing he may well have needed this reappearance run and Iâm willing to forgive that effort. LTO If You Whisper ran at the end of September in Kempton when finishing 6L back in 8th over 7f off 77. After slightly missing the break, If You Whisper was outpaced at the start of the race and plugged on OK in the home straight although he was too far back to be a contender and would never have gotten to those in front of him anyways. That said, it was still a slightly encouraging run and he showed that he still maintains his ability. Tomorrow, If You Whisper is stepped up to 1m2f for the first time and I think it certainly looks a good move and I think the further distance should definitely suit. He races tomorrow off a mark of 75 which is 3lb lower than his 2nd to The Tichborne with Tony Culhane taking the ride. The draw in stall 9 isnât ideal but If You Whisper generally likes to be slightly off the pace so it shouldnât be a grave concern. This 3 year old gelding has only 7 starts to date so is clearly unexposed, and I fully believe he will be able to defy his current mark in the near future. If You Whisper represents trainer Mike Murphyâs only runner tomorrow and he could be coming back into form as Love Your Looks won recently. At a track where he clearly goes well, I think the 16/1 currently on offer looks much too big and if stripping fitter for his 2 recent runs and improving stepped up in trip I am hopeful of a very big run tomorrow and hopefully a winner at a nice price. I am also very interested to the see the price of Phillip Hobbs' new recruit Allthekingshorses in the first at Exeter tomorrow. Winner of his sole P2P start over here, he looks a very likely type on paper for a yard in form that can clearly ready them first time out and if anywhere near the 7/1FC I'll certainly be having a decent e/w bet
Good man Oddy!..I've posted from day 1,and dissected the CC that he won,that MM being attributed a rating of 186 was completely nonsensical. It was the first G1 chase that Phil Smith and his team had calibrated...and they made a complete balls of it. SE is a 170er IMO...easily.
I unfortunately cannot be betting on the jumps just yet as fitness has to be taken on such trust. On paper i love the look of the Captain Chris race and would love to get stuck into the puzzle of who i think is the best horse at todays conditions, when however you have the imponderable of who is actually fit it becomes an impossible task as only those closest to the yard can know. Two horses for today and the first is a banker bet Redcar 1.10 Peter Anders 13-8 Ran well under tender handling last week over 6 furlong but stepped up to the more suited 7f is going to see him way to good for anything in this field. The price is not big but this horse is still value as ridden better he could have won last week and so to my eye is a winner in a maiden. May be the biggest bet have had for a few weeks as have not really got too involved. Redcar 2.10 Marshmellow 5-1 Not having anything like the bet on the first selection but will have a play as this horse is being stepped up 6 whole furlongs on his handicap debut. There has also been a little money for him today and everything looks like they are expecting more from him. This said he is still very unproven so small stakes only. Good luck today everyone
Morning, people. Nice to see you, to see you...NICE! Corking card down in God's own county, Devon, today as both proven and potential stars battle it out for the headlines at Exeter. I am though going to be a tad boring and say that for this correspondent its a 'no bet' day because at the prices nothing really leaps off the old page. Will be watching together with the old notebook though. Especially the Haldon Gold Cup, the outstanding novice chase featuring Menorah and Sam Winner and the opening pair of novvy hurdles. Mr Henderson has some lovely, and I do mean lovely, types entered tomorrow though so hopefully the banner will not make an appearance in 24 hours hence. Good luck to anyone who does 'surrender, some legal tender' today though.
1.40 Master Of Dance Horse has a wee bit to find on official marks, but I think the conditions of the race suit this one more than his key rivals. I therefore make him my nap of the day.
I'm bleeding on 2 fronts SirBarney - can't seem to back a winner and the old stock markets are not offering any solace .........................
Unfortunately the firm going at Warwick and the heavy ground at Chepstow has decimated Mr Henderson’s intended runners tomorrow. Am very disappointed. He should still win the ‘lucky last’ at Warwick but the 3 I had hoped to see have all been taken out of their races. Start the rain dances, people, as some parts of the Isle are in urgent need of precipitation!
Morning all, Sea of red today Oddy. The fate of Europe (and your stocks) is firmly in the hands of the Greek public. Very very scary times. Watching brief for me today. Some very intereting races and some little pointers for Cheltenham no doubt.
