A couple of interesting runners in the opener at Kempton today, however, the one i like the look of is NORTH CAPE a consitent performer on the flat with Henry Candy, where he was placed in 10/17 of his races and won 3. Add to that the new trainer has a 33% win strike rate over the jumps this season with 3 from 9. He might just need a little bit further, however, he was a very useful flat performer and got to within 3/4l of Toploski who went on to win a Class 1, Grade 2, Novice Hurdle at Aintree and at odds of 12/1 i will be having a speculative EW bet.
A couple for me today: 120P: Silver Wren trained by the talented Mrs Robeson (also in form) has a good EW chance but could just win this. 215W: Despite Nass liking Exceedence i like the look of Littlesuzie here. Beaten a length by Mr Smarts horse LTO despite suffering interference at a vital stage i fully expect Littlesuzie to beat the fav and maybe win. Jockey and trainer in good form and also the fav had the experience of having a race already before they met LTO. 240K: This is ont of the best races of the day (if not the best!) and 2 that have a chance are Laustra Bad EW at 20s with the talented Conor O'Farrell taking off 3lb. BUT the one i really like to win here is On Borrowed Time who today has his first run for Mr Arbuthnot who without doubt is an excellent trainer. This horse wont have to improve at all for the move but will anyway! A nice win bet has been placed. Good luck all
Nass: Yer, without knowing what problems he had with Ian Williams i guess we are a little in the dark. The good thing now is Donald McCain will keep everyone abreast of what the situation is, firmly believe he is one to follow if they can keep him right
On a side note, they should chuck the book at Ferdy for the Divers debacle. Not at all impressed and I wasn't even one of those who backed it.
12.50 Plumpton – WATER GARDEN 5/1 (BOG) An interesting maiden hurdle to start the card at Plumpton. Judiciary is currently favourite and rightly so following a good runner up effort at Cheltenham earlier this month on his hurdling debut. He was rated 82 at his best on the flat when trained by Mahmood Al Zarooni for the Godolphin operation. However at odds of 1-2 he makes very little appeal from a punting point of view. I would usually then leave the race alone but WATER GARDEN stands out as some decent value to turn over the favourite at around the 5/1 mark. He displayed a fair level of form in 4 starts for Paul Nicholls and whilst he hasn’t really built on a solid start to his career he is interesting now he has got some good ground on his first start for David Pipe. He has been well looked after in the past when beaten and I fancy him to run a big race here. 1.00 Kempton – ZAMA ZAMA 3/1 (BOG) I am really looking forward to seeing the Nicky Henderson trained Zama Zama on his hurdling debut this afternoon. He looked a smashing prospect when hacking up in a Warwick bumper on debut for Kevin Ryan. He was then purchased by Michael Buckley and sent to Henderson. He has made one start for his current yard in a listed bumper at Cheltenham in which he shaped really well finishing a never nearer 6th behind some nice horses. He will have been well schooled and hopefully he can make a winning debut over hurdles. I will also be watching Plenty Pocket very closely, he was useful on the flat in France and joined the Paul Nicholls yard with a big reputation last season. However he only finished 8th of 9 on his debut for the yard and hasn’t been seen since but is surely capable of better. 2.40 Kempton – KING OF THE NIGHT 9/2 (BOG) King of the Night is a horse I feel offers some good value this afternoon at 9/2. He looked very smart on two occasions last season with wins at Cheltenham and Doncaster and was still going well enough when taking a bad fall at the 7th in the Martin Pipe at the festival. He was then sent off favourite at Sandown but was always behind and never managed to get involved, this run is easily forgiven especially as he looked right back to his best at Newton Abbot on his reappearance. He travelled very well throughout the race that day and Ruby was still motionless two out, when he asked him to quicken he went clear of Cockney Trucker in impressive fashion. A 6lbs swing in the weights between those two shouldn’t be enough for a reversal. I am not a big fan of the favourite Beyond so could never back him at 2/1.
Not one of my favourite trainers. Never know what the hell his charges are going to do. Maybe he doesn't, either?
Afternoon all - one for me today at Kempton. 1-00 Dubawi phantom. John Ferguson has ben super impressive as a traiuner and only has the one out today. More than happy to back it. Tend to agree with RV over Time for Rupert. i thoguht he ran well enough on satirday and would expect him to improve but he probably won't be a threat to Long run At Melbourne tomorrow morning I have backed Drunken Sailor. Horse owes me nothing and have been waiting for him to turn up in this race - think he defintiely has the ability to get in the frame.
How many trainers really do know about the game. Just listen to what they say all week leading up to a big race, after the race is over, there's ample proof that most of them are most talking out their arse.
To be fair half the time it's probably because they really can't tell the truth. You're not going to her them say "we wanted to get them a nice mark for Cheltenham" or "well actually we want to push his price out to 20s before we really get him ready to win a race" or "we wanted to try him for the Ascot gold Cup hence putting him in this race today - he never managed it on the gallops but we thoguht we'd come along here anyway - yes he bombed out at 8/13 but that's the gamble you mugs". I'm singling nobody out but we all know it happens..........
Oddy it does indeed, but you just have to look at his record at getting 'underperforming' horses right for the festival
