Under The Spotlight: 'Episode 4'- Time For Rupert | Horse Racing

Under The Spotlight- “Episode 4”- Time For Rupert​

Almost wholly across the board, there seems to be the same question being asked everywhere across the National Hunt sphere- is there anyone who can mount a genuine challenge to King George and Gold Cup hero, Long Run? The way I have seen that question so far is more in a light which is, for lack of a better word, concerning. What I mean by that is not my concern that Long Run has a massive chance of becoming a double King George and Gold Cup champion, but rather the uncertainty about the top class opposition that he should have to beat to achieve that special feat.


Without question, one of the horses who many observers would have noted down as a potential challenger to his crown this year is Time For Rupert. Paul Webber’s 7 year-old charge made fantastic progress last season, winning his first two starts over fences really convincingly, looking a top staying chaser in the making. For me, last year was the big turning point in his career, as he will have physically strengthened as a 6 year-old and those two performances in the winter built on his hugely encouraging final start over hurdles- a 3 length 2nd to none other than Big Bucks in the World Hurdle at Cheltenham. That ear-marked him as a smart recruit to chasing and he delivered, making him a very warm 7/4 favourite for the RSA Chase.


The RSA is where the discussion really does hot up. I have heard descriptions such as he ‘ran like a drain’, and where people have questioned whether he really does have the ability to be a major player at elite level. One point that I think goes a little unmissed when debating Time For Rupert is the ground. I don’t think he has ever been a horse with a huge amount of speed, and almost all of his career over hurdles and fences has been over 2 and a half miles upwards. Whilst I would refrain from calling him a ‘dour stayer’, as that would be utterly unfair on a talent like this, I do believe that he needs ground with some cut in, and if you look throughout his career I think the form does bear that out. His record on good ground over hurdles and fences is 01752, whereas ground with any cut reads 71112211. I think that is very strong evidence and you would think he would need some rain in the lead up to Cheltenham if he is to have his best chance.


With that point in mind however, you would have to say that his comeback in the Charlie Hall over the weekend was a very, very promising one. To say that was on good ground, where his record is not great, he ran a tremendous race, jumped terrifically (he was taking distance out of horses during jumping in the mid part of the race), and will surely come on for that. He had some good horses in a lot of trouble, galloping Poquelin in particular into submission. The run on Saturday should perhaps be measured against Weird Al’s fabulous record fresh, winning on reappearance 4 times out of 4 in his career, after breaks of 323, 359, 267, and 225 days. I should think his camp will be absolutely delighted with that effort and I believe he will really build on that throughout the season. One final point about the RSA- he was only beaten 6 lengths in what was apparently a terrible run, and when you consider the fact that he scoped badly after the race, it was a huge achievement that he managed to get so close.


He definitely looks more of a Gold Cup horse than King George, as I think the King George requires a bit more speed, and the way he is ridden, often galloping on strongly from a prominent position, might suit him at Cheltenham, particularly when you consider how the brilliant 2011 running panned out, with the first 3 home all ridden close to the pace. I don’t want to make any bold comparisons because all horses are different, but he does remind me a little bit of Imperial Commander in the sense that he will stay strongly and relish every yard of Cheltenham, but would lack the speed in the King George like Imperial Commander, both having similarly prominent running styles.


At 15.5 on Betfair, he divides my opinion on whether he looks value for any Ante-Post stakes. If I could guarantee good-to-soft or softer at Cheltenham, I would be interested, but if it remains relatively dry I should think he would find one or two just a little bit more classy. As it stands though, I think he is a massive player to make the frame in the Gold Cup and I take a huge amount of encouragement from his run on Saturday, where I think he will turn out the best horse from that race.
Do you think the ground is as big a factor as I suggested? Does he look a gear or two short at the top level to win a race like a Gold Cup? Does his jumping put him bang in the mix at the top level?


As always, I’d love to know how you feel about this horse's chances, and this is a real good one to get your teeth stuck into as we delve into Gold Cup territory for the first time in this series. We’re a day away from November, so National Hunt is into full swing.

Thanks for your time once again,

-Top ​

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TopClass, excellent write up!
I agree that Time For Rupert ran an excellent race on Saturday. His jockey made full use of his stamina and he was just outpointed by Weird Al- who does run great when "fresh," as you say.
The problem is correlating the form. Weird Al was beaten over 40 lengths in last year's Hennessy- off only 10st! I have to conclude that Weird Al is pretty useless- apart from "first time out." After all, as an 8 year old, he's only had nine races total in his life. Poquelin didn't seem to get the trip and, as an overall guide, I don't think Saturday's race meant too much.
As regards the Gold Cup, Long Run is obviously a worthy favourite, even though it wasn't that easy to fancy him at this time last year- when he couldn't win the Paddy Power off 11st 1lb.
As it turned out, he probably met Denman and Kauto in the twilight of their careers, but that doesn't take anything away from his performance.
Personally, I think Time For Rupert has a lot going for him; he's no slouch and Cheltenham will always suit him ( I thought he broke a blood vessel in the RSA, by the way). Yes, soft ground will help him, but good fast ground won't hinder the stayer- at Cheltenham.
It's hard to fancy to many from this side of the water, although Nicky Henderson has soft-pedalled with both Riverside Theatre and Burton Port up to now. Both have potential to improve and possibly worry Long Run.
I should say I couldn't fancy any other English horse- apart from the three mentioned. The Irish may have something to say about matters, so it will be interesting to watch their hopefuls run.
Several of them eg. Boston's Angel, Quito De La Roque are entered in the big chase at Down Royal next Saturday, but they will face stiff opposition from unlucky Gowran Park loser, Rubi Light, and possibly Midnight Chase and Paul Nicholls' selected.
Ante-post wise, Rubi Light is the only horse that interests me at 50/1 for the Gold Cup. I think the horse has tremendous potential, but his stamina is as yet unproven.

 

Oddy, I'm joking a bit in describing Weird Al as 'useless.' I had a good bet on him in last Season's Hennessy- I thought he was home and hosed off 10st and getting nearly 2 st off Denman.
After that miserable showing, I just couldn't trust him again- though Saturday's win didn't surprise me. Oddy, you tell me, how did he run so badly in that Hennessy?

 

TFR reminds me a denman a little bit, relentless galloper just lacking a change of gear. I think you have hit the nail on the head so to speak with the ground issue, and when there is some cut in the ground he sure is going to be hard to pass. Absolute fantastic jumper of a fence, its almost like he is stepping over them rather than jumping.

 

TopC: Another excellent read and write up and i agree wholheartedly with many comments.

Ground issues - 100% agree he is better with cut.
Jumping - 100% agree he is safe as houses generally.
King George - 100% agree, doubt they will even go there and his whole season will now be geared at the Festival.
Gold Cup - Not for me as although he ran well enough to finish just behind the leaders in the RSA (despite his problem) i just cannot have him beating Long Run, Weird Al, Burtons Port and a couple of Irish contenders.

Personally, i believe Weird Al will be the horse to challenge Long Run this season. A move to the extremely talented Donald McCain could just work the oracle. The owner has pulled a master plan IMo by moving him from a handicappers yard to a top notch yard full of successful horses.

Tam: Extremely harsh indeed to call a Charlie Hall winner 'useless' but the good thing about this forum is freedom of speech so we have to respect your opinion. For me the race never looked in doubt from a long way out as Timmy Murphy always looked very confident and the horse was cruising. TFR will obviously come on for the run and also improve for softer conditions but who is to say that McCain cannot get some more improvement out of Weird Al and even if he does need a gap between races they will surely give him that.

Excellent write-up TopC and look forward to lots of debate on this one mate

 

The profile of Time For Rupert has changed greatly from the beginning of the year. At that point he was being hailed as the latest ‘reincarnation of Pegasus’ and I really am not exaggerating when I say that the media were maintaining that CGC’s, for a few seasons, from 2012 onwards were his for the taking. Now following the emergence of Long Run as a true champion, TFR missing ‘Trials weekend’, his poor RSA display and Wetherby the position has changed greatly.

Currently rated 159 he will need to improve almost 2 stones on that to trouble Long Run. There must also be the suggestion that he ran several pounds below that mark at Wetherby at the weekend as he was beaten by a horse rated as low as 151 when in receipt of 3 pounds. I think TFR’s current mark is as good as he is over fences and he is no longer one that I would get excited about, I’m afraid.

Would I take 16/1 for him re the 2012 CGC??? In a word ‘no’.

 

Excellent write up.

I'm still undecided on the horse, I hate the idea of champion chasers coming after a second season hurdling, but did connections believe they could topple Big Bucks en route to winning a Gold Cup ?
I don't think so, I also think you can read nothing into the 3l distance behind Big Bucks as that horse is notoriously lazy and only ever does as much as he needs to, though I have to say that World Hurdle looked to be a decent renewal.

I think we're all looking for something to crawl out of the woodwork and shows his Gold Cup crudentials, many people seem to have assumed that Long Run will win come March and probably win the next couple as well, I'm not so sure, I'm still a believer that for Dads Army to have filled the places and only been beaten by Long Runs youthful acceleration over the last it had to be a weak renewal.
I'd make TFR a challenger on all known form but will probably end up being 10lb or more behind the best.

I'm more fascinated by the form shown by last years RSA front four - that looked to be a cracking heat and any of those could go on to be outstanding horses IMO...

 

I'd rather be with Wierd Al than TFR after Saturday. I can't see any reason why that form should be reversed, especially as the winner gave the runner up 6lbs.

 

I can't put my finger on it at the moment but Weird Al doesn't look like a Gold Cup horse to me whereas Time For Rupert does. My only worry is the bleeding; not a good sign in my book. Other than that, TFR and Diamond Harry to give Long Run most trouble. I hope Diamond Harry features in this series at some point.

 

TFR bled as a direct result of a lung infection, according to Paul Webber. So if he's fully recovered from that, there's no reason why there should be a repeat of the bleeding.

He'll need to improve by almost 2st to worry Long Run though.

 

If you believe the official handicapper.

This is a horse I have plenty to say about, and I will once I get some free time at home.

Good thread and good debate so far.

 

Handicappers are forever re-handicapping after the event. I remember one Gold Cup winner(think it might have been Bregawn) that had earlier in the season won a handicap under 10stone something.

 

"Tam: Extremely harsh indeed to call a Charlie Hall winner 'useless' but the good thing about this forum is freedom of speech so we have to respect your opinion."
Ah, GDC...I did qualify my words with..... "apart from first time out," and as I said to Oddy, I was being a bit facetious in calling Weird Al 'useless.'
In actual fact, both his subsequent performances last year were indeed 'not a lot of use.'

ArchersRoad, I don't think TFR would need to improve 2 stones to trouble Long Run. On last season's early form, Weird Al and Long Run are much the same animal- on a line through Little Josh.

"Handicappers are forever re-handicapping after the event. I remember one Gold Cup winner(think it might have been Bregawn) that had earlier in the season won a handicap under 10stone something."
Ron, it wasn't Bregawn- he was one of the highest ever weight carriers to win the Hennessy(11st 10 lbs).

 

Cool Dawn won the Welsh National off 10st.

Time For Rupert may well be capable of the necessary improvement, but as yet he doesn't have anything in the form book that gets close to Long Run's King George and Gold Cup form, however you measure it. The fact he got close to Big Buck's over hurdles may mean a lot or it may mean nothing really. I have an irrational dislike of the World hurdle, so it means nothing to me.

 

This is quite an interesting one. If I'm honest I don't think I fancy either of their chances - and certainly not at the odds available.

Whilst Time For Rupert does obviously look like a very classy horse, I think it seems extremely likely that the ground at Cheltenham will start good-soft and be good by the end of the week - I get the impression that this is what they aim at, and as a result it might not bode well for him. As for Wierd Al, I'm not sure, he could come good, but is as we say very fragile, and not worth looking at at such short odds in my opinion.

But then, to be frank, I can't see anything coming into the competition apart from Long Run (at this stage). The likes of Quito De La Roque look bright, but Long Run I think has the potential to dominate the CGC this year and on the basis of the horses that have run so far, I think it will be easy for him. Riverside Theatre has the potential to be a good horse, but look at last years King George - he was easily beaten by Long Run and I think that the King George suits Long Run much less than the Gold Cup.

As for Time for Rupert, I think he could well go on to improve, and will now probably be aimed at the CGC. Might even run into a place, but if Long Run turns up, Time for Rupert won't win.

 

Tam: No worries and hopefully McCain will be able to get the best out of the horse, he without doubt has ability, just a matter of how much mate

 

I can't see any reason why TFR would be any shorter that 16/1 for the Gold Cup come March so as an ante post bet I think it's not the best out there. Weird Al, for me, is a fantastic first time out performer but until he performs well on his second run I can see a lot of holes in his chances. If it was me and know he runs best fresh I'd put him away until March and see how good he is after another 5 months off.