Verstappen still has to pit again, so he’s not winning the race. Charles should win but Ferrari can’t make a decision to make Sainz let Charles pass.
Hamilton has a chance simply because I think the Merc is better on it’s tyre than the Ferrari and he’s a better driver for tyre management than either of the Ferrari drivers
Now for the interesting bit. Is Hamilton faster than the damaged Leclerc in clean air. With such a small gap now they can't fix the wing in the stop without giving up position