Whoosh. Vadeni wins the French Derby by 5l in a very fast time on soft ground. Sired by Galileo son Churchill, the dam was by Monsun out of a mare by Unfuwain who, of course, was the product of Norther Dancer/Height of Fashion (by Bustino). Some top class stamina on the dam side. Backed from 25s to 8/1 for the Arc. Jockey seems to think it's a 10f horse but it wouldn't surprise me if he stayed the 12f really well. Derby winner Desert Crown is fav at 3/1 with Oaks second Emily Upjohn next at 3/1. There are several other interesting runners though at big odds. Among them is Westover who finished like a train in the Derby after meeting considerable interference when it mattered, Luxembourg, Tuesday, and Adayar. I think, for the time being, if you back anything against Vadeni you would be hoping he won't run. We still have some big races that will tell us a lot more
You could well be right about Desert Crown Joe. He is an impressive looking animal and he looked mightily impressive in the Derby. BUT, I don't think that was anywhere near one of the strongest Derby fields and he should have won impressively to stand any chance in the Arc. He still needs to progress to fulfil his potential and he may well do, but I just have slight reservations about taking 3/1 at this stage. If he wins a strong KG field impressively then I agree 100 % but he hasn't beaten anything yet that you would even consider for the Arc. He isn't the first horse to smash the second horse doing handstands. Westover would not have been given much of a chance in the Arc pre Derby but, given the amount of ground he made up on Desert Crown once he got out of trouble, you have to wonder what might have happened with a clear run. Also, what if Luxembourg had turned up? He has top class form already in the book over a mile and will be even better over 12f. The ground was almost race perfect at Epsom yet, DC didn't even beat the standard time for the 12f. So we have to ask ourselves how much faster could he have gone had he not eased off towards the finish. I can only assume that he would just about have beaten standard time. Now, although time is not everything, and we all know that there are numerous factors affecting it, on the day the horse still has to finish in the fastest time to win the race What we do know is that Desert Crown and Westover will stay the 12f, as will Emily Upjohn and Tuesday. We don't know for certain if Vadeni, Luxembourg and Coroebus will stay 12f. A lot can happen in 4 months and, as you know horses at this age can mature a lot in 4 months. And then there are the older horses who will have matured a lot since their 3yo days. If the ground at Longchamp turns up soft that raises further questions. Desert Crown has run on it once and that was in a class 4 race I think I would prefer to wait and see what happens in the Irish Derby and the KG before taking odds about anything at present, and accept the shorter, less risky odds
Interesting form-line there Joe, but it really gives more credence to the chances of Vadeni. As you say above, "Not many would have beaten El Bodegon on heavy ground last year". After his poor run in the Dante "Prominent, pushed along 3f out, ridden 2f out, soon weakened"), the trainer commented "colt was unsuited by the good going and would prefer more ease in the ground". He got the ground against Vadeni and we saw what happened there. I wouldn't be placing much importance on that form-line to be honest I agree about the fillies but, with another 4 months plus the sex allowance, who knows
Well that's what I'm waiting to find out. The pedigree is very mixed. On the dam side we have a scattering of stamina influence with Monsun in the top half and Unfuwain in the bottom half. There is also plenty of speed in there. The way he finished over 10f in soft going, after what appeared to be a strong gallop (backed up by time), he might stay the 12f. That is the big question. If he is as good, or better, over 12f, Desert Crown has a fight on his hands (something he hasn't encountered so far). If he turns out to be a 8-10f horse, as you confidently predict, then I don't see him turning up for the Arc. The picture will be so much clearer after the KG
I see Timeform have allocated Desert Crown a rating of 129p and Vadeni 124p. Interestingly they say " Vadeni could easily develop into another, the stamina in his family suggesting a mile and a half wouldn’t be beyond him, even though he clearly has plenty of speed." Of Desert Crown, they said "The first favourite to be successful since Golden Horn in 2015, Desert Crown won in similar manner to that colt and the fact that he did so on just his third start makes him a particularly exciting prospect, bordering on top class already and potentially one of the best Derby winners of the century." I think the key in that statement is "potentially one of". Let's hope he fulfils that potential as I would rather be cheering an English colt in the Arc
Looking at ORs it is amazing how they can rise in such a short time. Yet more evidence that these and any other ratings are, by themselves, pretty useless in assessing a future race. They do not and cannot tell us what the horse is capable of, only what it has done so far. For example, looking at Sea The Stars, his OR before the Derby was 121. After the Derby it was 124, and after the KG it was 133. Formbook watchers can not predict this, especially as most horses will not see their rating rise so dramatically and some, not at all. Also, being by Cape Cross, who would have expected him to win the Derby, or Arc, given he hadn't run a yard further than 8F before the Derby? This clearly demonstrated the influence on stamina the dam can have, and how important it is to understand the conformation of the horse, along with scope and a few other things not mentioned in the form book I think Joe and I think along the same lines as regards the form book. It's a useful starting point but can be a long way from appreciating the true capability of the horse
Just looking at Desert Crown's OR after the Derby and it appears to be123, 2 lbs higher than Sea The Stars. Timeform ratings are fairly close to the ORs generally but Desert Crown has a rating of 129p. It's anyone's guess what that will be after the KG. It will need to go up 11lb to rank among the best
Eclipse. That was close. Vadeni just held on. Not sure what to make of that. Strange race, seemed to go a very steady pace yet the time was quite fast. Any views on the sectionals Joe?
Grand Prix de Saint-Cloud (Group 1) (4yo+) (Turf) Alpinista wins in lightning quick time on gs ground. 16s available for the Arc but Skybet have cut her to 8s. Others bound to follow after that Vadeni as short as 5s but will need to show he will be suited by 12f. Jockey (and Joe) convinced he is a 10f horse. If that is the case he is not one to back ante post Westover, fast finishing Epsom Derby 3rd behind Desert Crown and easy winner of the Irish Derby (albeit a pretty slow time) is up to 4 times the odds of DC for the Arc. Slight concern about the dam being by Lear Fan who, if I remember correctly, didn't stay a yard past 8f (not sure he stayed 8f), although his sire was Derby winner Roberto Emily Upjohn is 4th fav but I do;t understand why given the form of the Oaks If I was to have a dabble ante post I think it would have to be a small ew on Alpinista at 16s and Luxembourg at 20s
