Monday's Meetings Catterick Flat 7 Races 1:30-4:30p.m. Wolverhampton A/W 8 Races 1:40-5:13p.m. Musselburgh Flat 7 Races 1:45-4:50p.m. Roscommon(E) Flat 7 Races 4:25-7:40p.m. Windsor(E) Flat 7 Races 5:05-8:10p.m. Southwell(E) N/H 7 Races 5:20-8:20p.m. Racecards At The Races Sporting Life Racing Post Good Luck
Not specific to today's racing but what do we make of this plunge on Desert Crown for the Derby? He's now 6/1 second fav behind Stone Age despite only having won a Nottingham maiden last November. He is an intended runner in the Dante on Thursday (currently 2/1 fav) and here is a dossier on him from Racing Post: https://www.racingpost.com/news/fro...-about-big-classic-gamble-desert-crown/554958 Intriguing with a capital "I" but the question has to be: Has he been gambled because he is burning up the gallops or more because there appears to be no standout horse in the race?
I always like to take a look at Betfair when it comes to a horse like this. He has been supported into a last price matched of 8.0. However only £10 k of the £164k in the market is on him, showing that it’s not a massive market on the exchange and whilst his bets have gone up in volume in recent days, it doesn’t look like a landslide of money. My view is that people have looked at the Dante (2/1 fave) and think it’s a very winnable race for him and along with positive vibes, he has been backed because of that. The second in the Dante market Magesterial is 3/1 for the Dante and 29.0 on the exchange for the Derby.
Adayar and Golden Horn both won, back end, Nottingham maidens as 2YOs as well. Not sure if this is in any way (probably only very slightly) linked to the Desert Crown plunge. I was most impressed by Stone Age at the weekend. Thought he looked very, very good. Looks, right now, a very deserving favourite for The Derby. Still though no strength in depth to the race at all in my opinion. And I still wonder, as I said on Saturday, if we could get a load of supp' entries nearer the time - if you had a 'arrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrf decent 3YO colt who stayed 12 furlongs and could afford £85k you would be tempted, wouldn't you??? Meanwhile, if the Dante does disappoint and something romps home in Musidora I wonder if connections of that winner would be tempted by the Derby rather than the Oaks??? You would have to think they would consider it this year. And don't forget the fillies allowance as well...
Agree Stone Age was impressive but what value is the form? He beat a 97 rated colt by 5&1/2 lengths, but shouldn't he have done that anyway. If you use the 2nd as a yardstick then that puts Stone Age at about 108. He's got to run 10lb better than that to have a shout at Epsom. Maybe he will, maybe he could have done but he's not home and hosed yet despite the impression he made.
In a normal year, yes. But is this a normal (on standard year) given the runners currently in the Derby reckoning??? At the moment you do have to wonder if something close to Stone Age's run yesterday would be good enough. Everything could change though if top quality efforts are put up, this week from animals at York, Newbury or elsewhere. But will that happen???
Very seldom bet ante-post as have always felt it's something of a a bookies' charity, not that they need one. So, Sir Michael Stoute's Desert Crown takes my eye at 6/1 at the moment, but that could well fall flat if he runs badly in the Dante at York. Well-bred colt, like him a lot. I'll be on him for the Dante! (One good thing about ante-post, you can't change your mind. You're 'on', and that's it!)
Anyone else seen the gamble on Bold Vision in the 1850 at Southwell (Don Cantillon Horse) 40/1 last night 80/1 this morning and now 12/1 with BV.
In the 19:10 at Windsor this evening will have a very small punt on Turn Back Time. The Time Test filly has a chance in this Class-5 Handicap over the extended mile. William Buick rides for the Mark & Charlie Johnston yard. Best price of 9/1 still available in a few places. E/W best option.
