I go by joe90 on the Irish racing forum, and I done my bit for the economy that day, and what a great day it was. Winters Night 14/1 - bolted up Excellent Guest 20/1 - bolted up http://www.racecaller.com/forum/viewtopic.php?id=7837&p=2 http://www.racecaller.com/forum/viewtopic.php?id=7837&p=3
hmm good tips but you done the economy ****all and the bookies a favour , as if the favourite won theyd be down a lot morethan a few boys on 14/1 20/1 shots
You're hardly f******g Tom Segal than are you? Every mug has at least one hot streak in the course of a lifetime..
Hot streaks dont exist, backing a winner in one race dosent give you a better chance of backing the winner in the next, thats a myth. Tom Segal has went months without tipping winners. Hugh Taylor is the best judge around, and they both have 20 years on me. You are going to a go periods losing and periods were you will back a few winners, but as Hugh says, its not about individual winners, its about showing a profit in the long run, thats what its all about. He does not see it as a hot run when he gets a few winners in succession. The only place luck comes into it is in running.
I beg to differ on the subject of hot (and cold) streaks. Punting is not a science, it's an art. Instinct is as important to the punter as logic, and there are times when it will fail you and times when you can seemingly do no wrong.
I agree about instinct being a huge tool with regard to punting, but thats a certain type of punting, betting in nearly every race punting. The science is in finding good value, sticking to a certain type of race, in my case, sprint handicaps, and applying your method to finding what you percieve to be a good bet. The hardest part of gambling imo is control, if you have a good system and believe in it, you will win over the course if you have the control. Im not saying I have it! But im getting better all the time. If you back a few losers and start chasing, backing horses who you know represent no value, then you have lost control. Winning runs and losing runs are simply probability, its nothing to do with being hot or cold. Everything will even itself out over time and thats why the most important thing is value.
I agree that discipline is the key to successful punting - the one advantage the punter has over the bookie is that we can be selective and only bet when everything is lined up in our favour. But every gambler goes "on tilt" from time to time, because we are all human beings, and your basic human is an irrational and emotive creature. You cannot eradicate weakness from your nature, only try and limit the damage your weaknesses cause you, and always try to play to your strengths. There are some occasions, and these are very very rare, when you absolutely "know" a certain horse will not get beat. This is a knowledge that transcends form study, it's a gut feeling, and imo you should learn to recognise and trust these moments when instinct takes over from logic.
