Both teams will see this as a “must win” six-pointer. Norwich to keep their head, if not above water, at least near the surface and Brentford to avoid dropping into the murky depths of bottom three. Brentford have possible starts for Ivan Toney and Christian Eriksen having both had run outs in their last game. Norwich will wait on a number of injury updates, but with some half-decent cup performances from Rupp, Rowe and Byram amongst others, Dean Smith will have some selection decisions to make. Will Krul keep the gloves? Does Rupp replace Gilmour? Sargent up front? Form for both sides is pretty bleak. Will Brentford get their first W in eight games on the road to Norwich, or will the A11 be Chris Rea’s “Road to L”
Our stats against Brentford are pretty impressive, five clean sheets in eight matches. We seem to be their bogey team, long may it continue. I can see a comfortable victory for us in this one.
The side I would like to see for this match would be: Krul, Byram, Williams, Gibson, Zimmermann, Normann, Rupp, Gilmour, Rashica, Pukki, Rowe.
We have a bit of an edge as Brentford have taken only 1 point from their last 6 games whereas we've taken 7 from our last 6.
It's too late. We need at least the same number of points from our last 11 games as our first 27. Then we would be on 34 and have maybe a 30% chance of avoiding the drop. To survive now we need to match Chelsea in terms of ppg.
Providing we win the games against the teams around us there is definitely still a chance, how likely that is is another matter
That is the key if we are to keep what slim chance we have open. The next two games are crucial, but we also need the teams above us to drop points in other games while we improve over the rest of the season.
So the bookies price our relegation at c.7% and survival at c.12%, which suggests most people think we are at around a 10% chance. That feels a bit high - I would have estimated around 5% personally. In a funny way, while it definitely depends upon us dramatically improving our points tally, I think the real thing that will give us the chance of survival is if three other teams at the bottom have particularly poor form.
Personally I'd put it at around 2%. It relies upon two unlikely events. 1. Us averaging considerably better than a point per game. 2. Three of the other teams involved averaging less than a point a game. One of those isn't especially unlikely, both of them together though are.
That is the slim chance we have and it's dependent on both of those factors. A look at the current form table suggests that unlikely possibility might just be possible. If that form table is increased to 6 games we have 7 points in the last 6 games which have included ManCity and Liverpool. Most of those around us still have to face those two giants.
I agree with that but would just flag that most other teams will take points unexpectedly from the giants. We are simply not at the level of doing that.
