Cor blimey whatever next. As long as you don't go on to doubt the fact re Princess Camilla being the forum's favourite owner... I see Alan King has put The Glancing Queen in The Plate (mark of 141). Connections seem 50/50, it would seem, between that heat and the Mares Chase. To further complicate things, right now, the old girl is 'blue' on Oddschecker re both races!!!
Willie Mullins is said to be fancying Galopin Des Champs for the Turners Novices' Chase Horse trainer Willie Mullins has been said to be fancying six-year-old Galopin Des Champs for the Turners Novices' Chase or the Brown Advisory where he can be found at the best price of 3/1 the Turners and a best odds of 10/11 for the Brown Advisory. Willie Mullins said speaking to Mark Boylan "He could go in either the Turners or Brown, I'd be happy enough I think with the Turners. I think he has the ability to do that." If Galopin Des Champs does declare for the Turners Novices' chase it would set up a mighty clash with Bob Olinger who is currently the betting favourite at 11/10 but can be found odds-on-favourite in parts at 4/5. Come on Willie, make your mind up...?!?! Also on the link the BHA webpage is still down so the entries deadline is going over to tomorrow now...
Undoubtedly the worst news of the morning (at least for me), perhaps Putin should step in to fix the situation. The handicap entries are coming out now.
Well, no, the bad news is not over today. Highway Jewel will miss the Festival for the second year in a row. And the day is not over yet, it could be even worse.
I see that Kelso are again offering a bonus (£100k) to the winner of their Morebattle Hurdle (5 March) if they can follow up by winning any race at the Cheltenham Festival. The bonus money was paid out in '21 will the same thing happen in 2022??? The entries for the Morebattle are now in. Maybe Lieutenant Henderson will be chasing the money with Balco Coastal. Has also put this one in the County and the Martin Pipe.
Albert Bartlett Novices Hurdle Ballygrifincottage 33/1 e/w BoyleSports, 25/1 NRNB PP, betfair and Lads. I had the bet (33/1 e/w without NRNB) made some time ago but today I put it here after Dan Skelton has confirmed that he will run here. "He is in fantastic form to be honest with you and his coat has improved over the last two weeks. He did well out of Lingfield and won a race that perhaps he should have won having done so well at Cheltenham in December. Because he is a three miler and has run in a heap of point-to-points he never sparkles at home but those horses don’t. I think at his age and his experience in point-to-points and his ability to relax early but then to really see out the race is a real advantage. This race doesn’t turn into a classy affair but a slugging match. I think he is well able to get involved in that type of scenario. Whether he is quite classy enough from three out to the last I don’t know."
Handicaps Weights https://www.thejockeyclub.co.uk/che...ights-for-the-nine-handicaps-at-the-festival/
Christ almighty the handicapper has clobbered Dallas Des Pictons in the Pertemps - 144 . How has he arrived at that? Tullybeg 140 Pilgrim, I guess you'd be happy with that The Big Galloper off 131 really catches my eye - probably touch and go whether he gets in though
Yes, happy with that, now let's see who the jockey is (Gainford?). Also with Smoking Gun's mark for the Kim Muir, I'm on 20/1 e/w, hope he runs. Maybe next week I'll put my bets on handicaps. On the other hand, entries for the Hunters Chase have also gone out today and I'm very surprised to see Highway Jewel there even though one of the owners has confirmed that she won't be running.
Looks like they are planning to go Gold Cup with Aye Right which makes it harder to find the winner of the Ultima - he was one of the horses who fit the stat of having previously run well in the race. The others would be last year's winner Vintage Clouds (12 years old now, a pound higher than last year but a good 2nd in a veterans chase at Donny a few days ago), last year's 6th Discordantly (would run off a mark 4lbs below last year) and last year's 7th Alnadam - eyecatchingly 7lbs below his 2021 mark on 137 - his last winning mark (at Sandown Feb 2021). 50/1 with Bet365 for the Ultima but also entered in the Plate (and nibbled).
The question to ask, re the Ultima, is will your selection be wearing headgear??? If not you might want to think again or indeed twice! The day before the '21 renewal of this race I wrote, and I quote, 'The killer stat / trend, re tomorrow's racing, actually concerns the Ultima. 8 of the last 9 winners, of the contest, wore some form of headgear. Will it be 9 out of 10 after the 2021 renewal???' The answer??? Vintage Clouds won at 28/1 wearing headgear. At first glance this stat/trend makes little sense, appears totally barmy and hardly seems logical but who can argue with a 90% strike rate?!?
In the Ultima I have had an ew NRNB on Kiltealy Briggs’s at 20s. The worry is I have no recollection of my reasoning. I’ve just checked his form though and he was sporting cheekpieces for the first time lto. #lumponandblamesbcifitloses
His owner sponsors the Cheltenham Festival race. Not sure if this was behind the reasoning for the Kiltealy Briggs wager.
Surprised that we haven't had any reaction to this, annual event, on the old forum - https://www.sportinglife.com/racing/news/jonbon-among-henderson-horses-given-kempton-workout/198840 You can tell Cheltenham's around the corner when The Lieutenant dispatches a squad for a Kempton Park work-out. To use a footballing analogy to me this Kempton Park event is the equivalent of the Royal arriving in the 'Royal Box' prior to kick-orrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrf in the Cup Final. The countdown has begun, people.
Energemene out to as big as 4/1 for the Champion Chase (currently a price offered by 6 firms). Plus several bookie chappies now have his stablemate, Chacun Pour Soi shorter in the market.
Supreme Novices Hurdle El Fabiolo 16/1 e/w NRNB WH and Unibet, others 14/1 NRNB Finally WM assures today that he will run in the Supreme on the Sportinglife Stable Tour. Impressive win at Tramore and he is in the "could be anything" category. "He’s owned by Simon Munir and Isaac Souede and won well down at Tramore. The horse he beat, Tempo Charter Two, has come out and won since. He’s a horse who likes to get on with things and jumps well. He has his chance in the Sky Bet Supreme"
Looking at the top 9 in the NRNB market for the Supreme 7 of them hail from either Seven Barrows or are with WP Mullins (all 7 have different owners). Will all 7 of these run??? There are positive words that certainly 6 of them will (Slate Man the exception). You do have to wonder though what the final reality will be re the Supreme. The final decs for the race, incidentally, will be available almost exactly a week to this very minute. That point though re all 7 having different owners may indicate that no horse, or hardly any, may ultimately swerve the contest. The other 2 are with Elliott with at least 1 (Pied Piper) almost certain to go elsewhere.
Castlegrace Paddy 33/1 e/w 5 places NRNB - Johnny Henderson Chase. Really felt this horse was going to be dining at the top table most of his racing career but it hasn't been the case. He had some very good early chase form in the book, most notably when easily beating Speical Tiara in the Hilly Way chase in Cork and has defeated A Plus Tard over 2miles before plenty of other creditable runs against top opposition, before his form completely nosedived. I had heard he was quite fancied for his last run, but Davy Russell gave him a very easy time of it much to his backers frustration. If this has been the plan and the ground is on the soft side he could be one to take note of if he indeed ends up in the race.
I did detail this last year so its just a case of updating / tweaking a stat. Lieutenant Henderson, in recent seasons, is doing almost all of his winning at the Festival on the opening 2 days. Over the past 5 seasons he's had 15 winners and if you look at the days that these races are run, in 2022, that reveals the following winners stats over the 4 days 7-6-1-1. Doesn't take a genius to work out that the old boy is likely to struggle if he's not amongst the winners after day 2! Even more pertinent this time around as it would appear that his main chances, once again, are on Tuesday and Wednesday. Anyone going to be brave and put up a 'Hendo hotpot' for Thurs or Fri??? In terms of winners between chasing and hurdling, over the past 5 seasons, there is really no difference re the stable - 8 over fences and 7 over hurdles.
