Off Topic Politics Thread

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tomw24 said:
Like I said before, Putin is a ****, but not a stupid or reckless one. He just wants Ukraine. Well, he would probably like the other ex-Soviet nations as well but that won't happen. He wants power, not a World War in which Russia would almost certainly end up on the losing side.
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I'm almost in total agreement with you but I do not have a feeling of any certitude that Ukraine is his only long term goal. He has always held a belief that Russia should be the country on par with where it was pre-Soviet times, which included Finland too. I fully agree that to follow such a path is disasterous for Russia today, but his destiny as he sees it is to oversee the restoration of the Greater Russia. He is certainly, as you say, not stupid, but strategically he is at present well ahead in his calculations of how the West will and can respond. Populations of Western states are, for very good reasons, not at all enthusiastic about engaging Russia in a war, however limited, that, he knows, is what will encourage him to go as far as he can with his plan.
 
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Ian Thumwood said:
In theory only. in reality, it will never happen. Putin could go int here tomorrow and NATO woild be able to do very little about it. The rearmament of the Baltic states would give him the perfect excuse too. If Putin is confident enough to take Ukraine, he would give little time to reflecting upon invading these countries. The invasion would be complete beofe NATO could lift a finger..

I just think is is a case of accepting that there is nothing the West can do. Military action is undesirable and we would lose. Economic sanctions would quickly be countered by our computer systems being hacked.
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Biden has just said that the US will defend every inch of NATO and thousands of US troops are currently stationed in these eastern NATO members.
 
tomw24 said:
If Ukraine were a member of NATO I doubt Russia would have attacked at all. Russia would have needed China's backing and I don't think they'd have got it for the sake of Ukraine. Putin's a lot of things but stupid he is not.
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He might not be stupid, but I doubt this is a clever move on his part. The cagey poker player image he cultivated doesn’t seem so convincing now; stupid bastard called his own bluff. This won’t end well for him - or anyone else, unfortunately.
 
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I don't agree that is the best outcome at all. Russia will not stop there if they take Ukraine easily. The best outcome is for Russia to take massive casualties and discover that Ukrainians will die to protect their freedom. The best outcome is for the world to send freedom fighters into that country and fight Russia at their own underhand games. Putin has played a huge card here and if he doesn't get the overwhelming and convincing win to prove Russian glory he may have shot himself in the foot.

It is a small hope but one I am clinging to.
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Not sure a wounded Putin will in anyway be good. He worries the **** out of me. The military build up had been so orchestrated & deliberate. The initial defensive words just total lies. I did feel they might use the propaganda east Ukraine unrest as a pretext to take a few eastern provinces but it’s quite obvious on this the first day he’s going for at least 50% including the capital & almost sure the whole country. What a fcuking cnut. Sorry for the language.
 
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garysfc said:
Does he really give a ****e? I’m not convinced. Very difficult for NATO to militarily resist. That stance is just unthinkable.
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I suspect that's a gamble too far for Putin. Invading Ukraine is incredibly costly, but there is little spillover risk, and there's an underexplored side benefit here: Belarus, which has long been a Russian client state, is now going to be housing Russian troops indefinitely, its military has effectively been placed in Russian hands, and the country will probably be more-or-less peaceably annexed whenever Lukashenko dies/retires. Invading the Baltics, much though he would like to, triggers Article V; unless NATO outright disbands, it means direct conflict between Russia and NATO, and that's a conflict that Russia doesn't win (it's likely a conflict that absolutely no one wins, but I have no idea what Russia's win condition is there).
 
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Archers Road said:
He might not be stupid, but I doubt this is a clever move on his part. The cagey poker player image he cultivated doesn’t seem so convincing now; stupid bastard called his own bluff. This won’t end well for him - or anyone else, unfortunately.
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In what way did he call his own bluff ? What makes you say it isn’t so convincing now?
 
Gregm1988 said:
In what way did he call his own bluff ? What makes you say it isn’t so convincing now?
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Up to this point, Putin was very good about taking measured steps that bolstered his own standing in Russia, (marginally) improved Russia's strategic standing, and didn't present particularly grave risks to his position. Getting bogged down in a guerrilla war in Ukraine, particularly if paired with sustained economic consequences for the people who prop him up, is potentially a different story. Putin is making an enormous gamble here, with more risk than reward.

Which is also why the response here, from the West, should be: seize everything. Take every European and North American possession of the clique of oligarchs Putin has created to maintain his rule. Money (looted from the Russian economy) is the means by which he has bought loyalty: take the spoils from them.
 
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tomw24 said:
Like I said before, Putin is a ****, but not a stupid or reckless one. He just wants Ukraine. Well, he would probably like the other ex-Soviet nations as well but that won't happen. He wants power, not a World War in which Russia would almost certainly end up on the losing side.
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Biden has said today he doesn’t think Putin will stop with Ukraine. He thinks he wants to restore the Soviet Union.
 
Schad said:
I suspect that's a gamble too far for Putin. Invading Ukraine is incredibly costly, but there is little spillover risk, and there's an underexplored side benefit here: Belarus, which has long been a Russian client state, is now going to be housing Russian troops indefinitely, its military has effectively been placed in Russian hands, and the country will probably be more-or-less peaceably annexed whenever Lukashenko dies/retires. Invading the Baltics, much though he would like to, triggers Article V; unless NATO outright disbands, it means direct conflict between Russia and NATO, and that's a conflict that Russia doesn't win (it's likely a conflict that absolutely no one wins, but I have no idea what Russia's win condition is there).
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Yep I know what you’re saying but there’s an awful lot of logic there. You know what I’m going to say next.
 
Schad said:
Be forewarned: as dumb as many UK politicians have become, you still have a lot of work to do in order to catch the US. Here is Tommy Tuberville, Senator from Alabama (and former college football coach), showing his keen grasp of international politics:

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Is blaming communism the American equivalent of the Tories blaming Corbyn?
 
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Schad said:
Be forewarned: as dumb as many UK politicians have become, you still have a lot of work to do in order to catch the US. Here is Tommy Tuberville, Senator from Alabama (and former college football coach), showing his keen grasp of international politics:

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Bugger me he trumps Truss's geography
 
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Schad said:
Up to this point, Putin was very good about taking measured steps that bolstered his own standing in Russia, (marginally) improved Russia's strategic standing, and didn't present particularly grave risks to his position. Getting bogged down in a guerrilla war in Ukraine, particularly if paired with sustained economic consequences for the people who prop him up, is potentially a different story. Putin is making an enormous gamble here, with more risk than reward.

Which is also why the response here, from the West, should be: seize everything. Take every European and North American possession of the clique of oligarchs Putin has created to maintain his rule. Money (looted from the Russian economy) is the means by which he has bought loyalty: take the spoils from them.
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Spot on.

My main concern at the moment is that if the gamble starts failing and he gets backed into a corner, his capacity to think "**** it".
 
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